Null-Hypothesis Significance Testing and the Critical Weight Range for Australian Mammals

Abstract:  The critical weight range hypothesis for Australian terrestrial mammals states that species in the intermediate size range 35–5500 g are particularly susceptible to extinction. In a 2001 study Cardillo and Bromham found no statistically significant evidence for this hypothesis and suggested that research should instead focus on why small species are resistant to extinction. We used a similar data set of body sizes of Australian mammals grouped by conservation classification, but we used test statistics (mean deviation above and below the median body size) that are more statistically powerful than those of Cardillo and Bromham (quartiles, maxima, and minima of body size distributions). We found strong evidence in favor of the critical weight range hypothesis: the body size distribution of threatened species was more clustered toward the median body size from above and below. This pattern was statistically significant at the continental scale and in the arid zone, but not in the mesic zone. Confusing statistical significance with evidence of no effect, as Cardillo and Bromham did, can have negative implications for conservation biology because it can result in failure to act when action is warranted or provision of incorrect advice that affects policy and planning decisions.     

Data ranges in aquatic toxicity of chemicals

A significant problem for effect assessment of aquatic ecosystems arises from the large ranges of toxicity data, which can be found in different databases and literature. Here, ranges are given for the aquatic toxicity of 27 high production volume chemicals. Based on these illustrative examples and on the current literature on uncertainty in aquatic effect assessment, toxicity ranges are discussed for their possible causes (variation in experimental condition, species, endpoint, time) and ways to handle them (safety factors). Implications and recommendations on the procedure of risk analysis of chemical substances are drawn. Two main requirements for a comprehensive risk assessment are identified, which often play a minor role in current practice (as they are often neglected) as well as in scientific discussion (as they are meant to be trivial). First, data quality must be checked critically before applying any result of a toxicity test. Secondly, experimental data should take into account different species and acute as well as chronic data. If these aspects are considered in risk analysis, which is common practice in ecotoxicology but not always in the context of practical applications in risk engineering, a more comprehensive picture of the environmental toxicity of a chemical substance can be obtained.     

APPLICATIONS OF FUZZY LOGIC IN THE DESIGN OF VEGETATED WATERWAYS UNDER UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: Two methods for analyzing uncertainty are described and compared in terms of their applicability for designing vegetated waterways. The first approach uses First and Second Order Analysis and the second employs Fuzzy Logic. The two methods were used to evaluate the uncertain parameters in the Manning formula, which is used for calculating the velocity of water flow in vegetated channels. Results indicate that both approaches can provide the designer with an indication of reliability of the estimates, a way of selecting a design option which meets a specified probability of success, as well as a means of comparing the relative importance of uncertainty in various input parameters. Also, the two methods have the common advantage of being simple and requiring less data about the uncertain parameters compared to the more comprehensive stochastic approaches. Although the Fuzzy Logic approach appears to provide a more conservative design because of its slightly higher variance, compared with the First and Second Order Analysis, both methods have proven to be reliable and suitable to deal with uncertainty.     

SIMULATING TILE DRAINAGE AND NITRATE LEACHING UNDER A POTATO CROP1

ABSTRACT: A 2.2-hectare potato (Solanum tuberosum L. cv Chieftain) field at Saint Leonard d'Aston, Quebec (lat. 72° 24′ 30″ long. 46° 5′ 30″) was instrumented to measure tile drain flow over two growing seasons, 1989 and 1990. The soil was a Sainte Jude sandy loam. Soil properties and nitrate concentrations in the drain flow were measured. The CREAMS (Chemicals, Runoff and rosion from agricultural Management systems) computer simulation model was validated for the study site. CREAMS underpredicted event percolation depths. However, total monthly percolation depths were close to observed values. CREAMS overpredicted event nitrate concentrations leached to tile drainage. There was a poor match between predicted and observed event nitrate concentrations in drain flow (coefficient of predictability, CP_A= 104.95). Based on a sensitivity analysis, input parameters, representative of local conditions, were determined for the CREAMS hydrology and nutrient submodels.     

汉江上游十大洪水气象特征分析

本文分析了安康大洪水的气候分布和气象成因,讨论了水文气象接口问题,指出进行气象洪水预报是可能的。     

STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF TIME-AGGREGATED HYDROLOGIC DATA1

Stochastic models fitted to hydrologic data of different time scales are interrelated because the higher time scale data (aggregated data) are derived from those of lower time scale. Relationships between the statistical properties and parameters of models of aggregated data and of original data are examined in this paper. It is also shown that the aggregated data can be more accurately predicted by using a valid model of the original data than by using a valid model of the aggregated data. This property is particularly important in forecasting annual values because only a few annual values are usually available and the resulting forecasts are relatively inaccurate if models based only on annual data are used. The relationships and forecasting equations are developed for general aggregation time and can be used for hourly and daily, daily and monthly or monthly and yearly data. The method is illustrated by using monthly and yearly streamflow data. The results indicate that various statistical characteristics and parameters of the model of annual data can be accurately estimated by using the monthly data and forecasts of annual data by using monthly models have smaller one step ahead mean square error than those obtained by using annual data models.     

WATER TABLE INDUCED SHRUB-HERBACEOUS ECOTONE: HYDROLOGIC MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Environmental factors were investigated across a shrub-herbaceous ecotone (sharp zone of change) on a sloping site underlain by shallow groundwater on the arid floor of Owens Valley, California. Dominant plant species were salt rabbitbrush (Chrysothamnus nauseosus ssp. consimilis [E. Greene] Hall and Clements) and saltgrass (Distichlis spicata var. stricta EL.] E. Greene); typical of many similar habitats across the Great Basin. Historic air photographs were analyzed, and soil properties, water table levels and shrub and herbaceous cover were measured at discrete sample points. To investigate soil and vegetation spatial properties, sample points were apportioned on both sides of the ecotone. Land management practices and fire were ruled out as causal factors for the ecotone which remained stable through a 45-year period of air photo record. Soil textural, chemical and hydraulic properties were similar across the ecotone and were uniform throughout the site. Only depth to the water table changed significantly in a gradient perpendicular to the ecotone. The shrub-herbaceous ecotone was located where the water table depth fluctuated periodically between 0.8 and 1.2 m; deeper water tables than this range favors shrub cover while shallower depths favors meadow vegetation. When extrapolated to hydrologic management such as groundwater pumping, such a shallow depth and a narrow range of amplitude could restrict options for water development if maintenance of meadow vegetation is a goal.     

DDSC振动控制器的功能、指标及技术分析

DDSC（双数据处理振动控制器）系统是美国Dactron公司90年代研制的用于振动试验控制的新型振动控制器，具有硬件可靠，指标先进，功能完善的特点，在振动控制中具有很高的实用性和性价比，本文从使用的角度对其功能和技术特点进行展开分析。     

A NOTE ON AREAL RAINFALL DEFINITION

A discussion is presented of the likely sources of error in defining areal rainfall on a storm basis. These include the instrumental error, sampling fluctuations over the area, and network density. The analysis of dense raingage data provides some perspective of the magnitude of the errors that might be encountered from the natural variability of rainfall. Except for one watershed in Arizona, the coefficient of variation, based on a sample of storm totals from the individual gages in various size areas, remains relatively constant with increasing area for a particular storm. The error due to rainfall variability over the area is probably the most important and must be considered in experiments which attempt to resolve small-area hydrologic problems.     

CONTINENTAL SCALE SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGIC BALANCE1

This paper describes the application of a continuous daily water balance model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for the conterminous U.S. The local water balance is represented by four control volumes; (1) snow, (2) soil profile, (3) shallow aquifer, and (4) deep aquifer. The components of the water balance are simulated using “storage” models and readily available input parameters. All the required databases (soils, landuse, and topography) were assembled for the conterminous U.S. at 1:250,000 scale. A GIS interface was utilized to automate the assembly of the model input files from map layers and relational databases. The hydrologic balance for each soil association polygon (78,863 nationwide) was simulated without calibration for 20 years using dominant soil and land use properties. The model was validated by comparing simulated average annual runoff with long term average annual runoff from USGS stream gage records. Results indicate over 45 percent of the modeled U.S. are within 50 mm of measured, and 18 percent are within 10 mm without calibration. The model tended to under predict runoff in mountain areas due to lack of climate stations at high elevations. Given the limitations of the study, (i.e., spatial resolution of the data bases and model simplicity), the results show that the large scale hydrologic balance can be realistically simulated using a continuous water balance model.