Estimating Lag to Peak between Rainfall and Peak Streamflow with a Mixed‐Effects Model

We test the use of a mixed‐effects model for estimating lag to peak for small basins in Maine (drainage areas from 0.8 to 78 km²). Lag to peak is defined as the time between the center of volume of the excess rainfall during a storm event and the resulting peak streamflow. A mixed‐effects model allows for multiple observations at sites without violating model assumptions inherent in traditional ordinary least squares models, which assume each observation is independent. The mixed model includes basin drainage area and maximum 15‐min rainfall depth for individual storms as explanatory features. Based on a remove‐one‐site cross‐validation analysis, the prediction errors of this model ranged from ?42% to +73%. The mixed model substantially outperformed three published models for lag to peak and one published model for centroid lag for estimating lag to peak for small basins in Maine. Lag to peak estimates are a key input to rainfall–runoff models used to design hydraulic infrastructure. The improved accuracy and consistency with model assumptions indicates that mixed models may provide increased data utilization that could enhance models and estimates of lag to peak in other regions.     

Water Use Efficiency and Storage Capacity in South Asia by 2050

More than one billion South Asians are affected by water scarcity. Pressure on water resources is likely to grow as a result of population growth, urban expansion, and climate change. This paper assesses the impacts of these effects on the historical hydrological baseline, with particular focus on irrigation. A geospatial water balance model was developed for this purpose based on geo‐referenced information available in scientific public domain databases. Annual water supply and demand for a baseline period 1950–2000 were calculated and projected to 2050 using (1) outputs from 19 Global Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 for a Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; (2) population projections to 2050; and (3) historical land‐use patterns at the country level. Improvements in water use efficiency and storage capacity were analyzed using the Modified Water Scarcity Index of the baseline and the projected water balance in 2050 at the watershed scale.     

Spatial organization and behaviour of badgers <Emphasis Type="Italic">(Meles meles)</Emphasis> in a moderate-density population

Badgers are carnivores that show considerable variation in their social and spatial organization. At the westernmost part of their range, in Britain and Ireland, variation in spatial organization appears to be determined by the availability of resources. However, the majority of studies has focussed at one end of the social/spatial spectrum, where population densities are high and adjacent territories are contiguous and non-overlapping. To examine whether the same limiting factors appear to apply across a wider range of badger densities, we established a study site in a predominantly coniferous habitat within an upland area of northeast England, where population densities were predicted to be low. Seasonal home ranges of individual badgers were largest in autumn, followed by summer and spring, then winter. This pattern is reflective of the likely seasonal changes in food availability within the area, as opposed to being related to breeding patterns. There were also significant correlations between territory size and the number of grassland patches (positive) and the proportion of grassland (negative), which are consistent with predictions from the Resource Dispersion Hypothesis. Although badgers at the site were living at low to moderate densities relative to many other studied populations in Britain, they showed patterns of spatial organization that were close to those of high-density populations. The nature of the relationship between resource availability and abundance patterns is likely to have important consequences for the conservation and management of badgers and other species that show flexible spatial organization.     

Characterisation of Acid Mine Drainage Using a Combination of Hydrometric, Chemical and Isotopic Analyses, Mary Murphy Mine, Colorado

The legacy of mining continues to affect stream water quality throughout the western United States. Traditional remediation, involving treatment of acid mine drainage from portals, is not feasible for the thousands of abandoned mines in the West as it is difficult and expensive. Thus, the development of new methods to address acid mine drainage is critical. The purpose of this study was two fold; to identify and test new tools to identify sources of metal pollution within a mine and to identify low-cost treatment alternatives through the use of these tools. Research was conducted at the Mary Murphy Mine in Colorado, a multiple-level underground mine which produced gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc from 1870 to 1951. Source waters and flowpaths within the mine were characterised using analysis of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes of water (water isotopes) in combination with solute analysis and hydrometric techniques. Hydrometric measurements showed that while discharge from a central level portal increased by a factor of 10 during snowmelt runoff (from 0.7 to 7.2 Ls^–1), Zn concentrations increased by a factor of 9 (from 3,100 to 28320gL^–1). Water isotopes were used as conservative tracers to represent of baseflow and snowmelt inputs in a hydrologic mixing model analysis. The results showed that less than 7% of peak discharge was from snowmelt. Within the mine, approximately 71% of the high-flow Zn loading was caused by a single internal stream characterised by extremely high Zn concentrations (270600gL^–1) and low pH (3.4). Somewhat surprisingly, hydrologic mixing models using water isotopes showed that new water contributed up to 79% of flow in this high-Zn source during the melt season. Diversion of this high-Zn source within the mine resulted in a decrease in Zn concentrations at the portal by 91% to 2,510gL^–1, which is lower than the base-flow Zn concentration. The results suggest that in some mines remediation efforts can be concentrated on specific areas within the mine itself. Using the characterisation techniques demonstrated in this study, problem areas can be identified and contaminated flows diverted or isolated. The results also suggest that it may be possible to dewater contamination areas, greatly reducing costs of remediation.     

Chemical and isotopic investigation of groundwater in Tahta region,Sohag-Egypt

Chemical and isotopic investigations indicate that the recharge source for the groundwater in the Tahta district, adjacent to the Nile, is mainly from the Nile water seeping from irrigation channels. The water's chemical type is sodium bicarbonate, with values of oxygen-18 and deuterium close to that of Nile water. Another minor source of recharge to the far west of the Nile bank is palaeowater. This water's chemical type is sodium sulphate and sodium chloride. The change of water quality in some groundwater samples could be due to the extensive use of fertilizers to improve soil characteristics in new reclamation projects. In addition, these wells are slightly depleted in oxygen-18, deuterium and tritium. Recommendations for the periodic monitoring of groundwater quality for proper use are given.     

Bisexually bonded ranging in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus)

Abstact While male mammals seek to maximize access to potential mates, females maximize feeding efficiency. Ranging patterns are therefore often sex specific. Sex-specific ranging patterns have also been reported for East African chimpanzees and a recent study on female ranging patterns concludes that social organization is best described by a male-bonded community model, where females occupy individual home ranges that are distributed within the boundaries of the male-defended range. In West African chimpanzees, however, such sex-specific ranging patterns have not been consistently observed and a bisexually bonded community model, where both sexes use the entire home range equally, has been suggested to best describe social organization. In this study we analyze 5 years of data on individual ranging patterns of chimpanzees in the Taï National Park (Côte dIvoire) to test specific predictions of the different models of chimpanzee social organization. We found that although males in Taï had slightly larger home ranges than females, all individual home ranges and core areas overlapped highly. Small individual home range size differences were entirely due to the use of peripheral areas and were correlated with female social dominance. These findings strongly support the bisexually bonded community model for Taï chimpanzees. Thus, we conclude that there are fundamental differences in the space-use patterns of East and West African chimpanzees and discuss possible factors leading to such differences.Communicated by D. Watts     

GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZATION USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS AND SIMULATED ANNEALING: FORMULATION AND COMPARISON1

ABSTRACT: Genetic algorithms (GA) and simulated annealing (SA), two global search techniques, are coupled with MODFLOW, a commonly used groundwater flow simulation code, for optimal management of ground water resources under general conditions. The coupled simulation-optimization models allow for multiple management periods in which optimal pumping rates vary with time to reflect the changing flow conditions. The objective functions of the management models are of a very general nature, incorporating multiple cost terms such as the drilling cost, the installation cost, and the pumping cost. The models are first applied to two-dimensional maximum yield and minimum cost water supply problems with a single management period, and then to a multiple management period problem. The strengths and limitations of the GA and SA based models are evaluated by comparing the results with those obtained using linear programming, nonlinear programming, and differential dynamic programming. For the three example problems examined in this study, the GA and SA based models yield nearly identical or better solutions than the various programming methods. While SA tends to outperform GA in terms of the number of forward simulations needed, it uses more empirical control parameters which have significant impact on solution efficiency but are difficult to determine.     

HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION OF THE SWAT MODEL IN A WATERSHED CONTAINING FRAGIPAN SOILS1

ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, designed for use on rural ungaged basins and incorporating a GRASS GIS interface, was used to model the hydrologic response of the Ariel Creek watershed of northeastern Pennsylvania. Model evaluation of daily flow prior to calibration revealed a deviation of runoff volumes (D_v) of 68.3 percent and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of-0.03. Model performance was affected by unusually large observed snowmelt events and the inability of the model to accurately simulate baseflow, which was influenced by the presence of fragipans. Seventy-five percent of the soils in the watershed contain fragipans. Model calibration yielded a D_v of 39.9 percent and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.04, when compared on a daily basis. Monthly comparisons yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.14. Snowmelt events in the springs of 1993 and 1994, which were unusually severe, were not adequately simulated. Neglecting these severe events, which produced the largest and third largest measured flows for the period of record, a D_v of 4.1 percent and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.20 were calculated on a daily comparison, while on a monthly basis the Nash-Sutciffe coefficient was 0.55. These results suggest that the SWAT model is better suited to longer period simulations of hydrologic yields. Baseflow volumes were accurately simulated after calibration (D_v= -0.2 percent). Refinements made to the algorithms controlling subsurface hydrology and snowmelt, to better represent the presence of fragipans and snowmelt events, would likely improve model performance.     

INTEGRATION OF FOREST ECOSYSTEM AND CLIMATIC MODELS WITH A HYDROLOGIC MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The effects of changes in the landscape and climate over geological time are plain to see in the present hydrological regime. More recent anthropogenic changes may also have effects on our way of life. A prerequisite to predicting such effects is that we understand the interactions between climate, landscape and the hydrological regime. A semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP) has been developed which can be used to investigate, in a simple way, the links between landscape, climate and hydrology for watersheds of various sizes. As well as using data from the observed climate network, the model has been used with data from atmospheric models to investigate possible changes in hydrology. A critical input to such a model is knowledge of the links between landscape and climate. While direct anthropogenic effects such as changes in forested area may presently be included, the indirect effects of climate on landscape and vice versa are not yet modeled well enough to be explicitly included. The development of models describing climate-landscape relationships such as regeneration, development and breakup, water and carbon fluxes at species, ecosystem and biome level is a necessary step in understanding and predicting the effects of changes in climate on landscape and on water resources. Forest is the predominant land cover in Canada covering 453 Mha and productivity/succession models for major forest types should be included in an integrated climate-landscape-water simulation.     

ENERGY BALANCE OF A CORN RESIDUE-COVERED FIELD DURING SNOWMELT1

ABSTRACT: Transport of agricultural chemicals in runoff and recharge waters from snowmelt and soil thawing may represent a significant event in terms of annual contaminant loadings in temperate regions. Improved understanding of the melt dynamics of shallow snowpacks is necessary to fully assess the implications for water quality. The objective of this study was to measure the energy balance components of a corn (Zea mays L.) stubble field during the melting of its snowcover. Net radiation (Rn), soil (G), sensible (H), and latent (Q) heat fluxes were measured in a field near Ames, Iowa, during the winter of 1994–1995. Energy consumed by melting including change in energy storage of the snowpack was determined as the residual of the measured energy balance. There was continuous snowcover at the field site for 71 days (maximum depth = 222 mm) followed by an open period of 11 days before additional snowfall and a second melt period. The net radiation and snow melt/energy storage change (5) terms dominated the energy balance during both measurement intervals. Peak daily sensible and latent heat fluxes were below 100 W m^?2 on all days except the last day of the second melt period. There was good agreement between predicted and measured values of H and Q during the melting of an aged snow layer but poorer agreement during the melt of fresh snow. Both snowpacks melted rapidly and coincident changes in soil moisture storage were observed. Improved estimates of Q and H, especially for partially open surfaces, will require better characterization of the surface aerodynamic properties and spatially-representative surface temperature measurements.