泥石流危险范围的流域背景预测法

本研究通过对大量泥石流堆积扇平面形态的统计分析,总结出三种不同类型的平面概化模式,由此推导了它们的通用求积公式。并通过对泥石流沟流域背景因素的比较分析,选择了流域面积、流域相对高差、主沟长度和主沟平均坡度作为预测泥石流危险范围的定量指标。采用多元和逐步回归分析的数学方法,得出了泥石流最大堆积长度、最大堆积宽度和最大堆积幅角的计算公式,建立了半理论半经验性的泥石流危险范围的预测模型。通过模型的检验及其应用实践,证明本研究提出的泥石流危险范围的流域背景预测法适用于我国暴雨泥石流危险范围的预测预报。     

River Otter (Lutra lutra L.) in Northeastern Siberia: Distribution and Numbers

Russian Journal of Ecology -     

Long-Term Population Changes of Native and Introduced Birds in the Alaka'i Swamp, Kaua'i

Abstract:  Within the last 30 years, five endemic bird species of the Alaka'i Swamp, Kaua'i, Hawai'i, have likely gone extinct. We documented population trends of the remaining avifauna in this time period to identify a common pattern in the Hawaiian Islands: decline of native species and expansion of introduced species. We conducted bird surveys over 100 km² of the Alaka'i and Kōke'e regions of Kaua'i in March–April 2000 to estimate population size, distribution, and range limits of seven native and six introduced forest birds. We compared the results with four previous surveys conducted over the last 30 years. Five of the seven native species we studied have fared well, maintaining sizeable populations (>20,000 individuals) and unchanged or increasing numbers. The endemic 'Akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ), however, declined from 6296 (SE ± 1374) to 1472 (SE ± 680) individuals and exhibited range contraction from 88 to 36 km². The 'I'iwi ( Vestiaria coccinea ) also experienced a decline and contraction, though not as severe. Populations of several introduced forest birds are increasing, but all species, excluding the Japanese White-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ), were at low numbers (<5,500 individuals in survey area). One introduced species, the Japanese Bush-Warbler ( Cettia diphone ) recently invaded, whereas another, the Red-billed Leiothrix ( Leiothrix lutea ), has been extirpated. Two hurricanes in the past 20 years appear to have most strongly affected nectarivores and may have contributed to the decline or extinction of several other species. Overall, native bird populations on Kaua'i have exhibited species-specific responses to limiting factors. Although most native populations appear stable, the extant native avifauna is vulnerable as a result of limited distributions and the potential for widespread habitat degradation.     

APPLICATION OF THE BASINS DATABASE AND NPSM MODEL ON A SMALL OHIO WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) watershed management system. BASINS data were used with the NPSM model to predict discharge and sediment concentrations at the outlet of a 103 km² Ohio watershed. It was concluded that the NPSM model should always be calibrated but only a few of the parameters provided with BASINS needed to be calibrated. For a three‐year study period, there was a 2 percent underestimation of discharge using area weighted precipitation values and a 25 percent overestimation using the single station data in BASINS. A comparison of observed and predicted monthly discharge resulted in an r² of 0.86 with area‐weighted precipitation and an r² of 0.74 with the single station data. Calibrating the model to substantially improve sediment predictions was unsuccessful and we concluded that a calibration period of one year was too short. For the three‐year study period, the r² for sediment was 0.36 with a slope of 0.37 and an intercept of 18.8 mg/l. The mean observed and predicted sediment concentrations were 27.1 mg/l and 22.6 mg/l, respectively.     

ESTIMATING AVERAGE MONTHLY LAKE EVAPORATION IN THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A methodology to estimate the average monthly lake evaporation, E(τ), (month τ=1,12) for fresh water bodies located in the northeast United States is presented. The approach combines analysis of at‐site, lake‐specific vertical water temperature profile data and a previously developed regional air temperature based model approximation of the widely accepted modified Penman energy budget estimate of mean monthly potential evaporation, E_p(τ) (mm/day). The paper presents procedures to develop site‐specific estimates of E_p(τ) and to convert water temperature data to average monthly conductive heat flux, G(τ). With monthly estimates of G(τ), the average monthly potential evaporation, E_p(τ), is then convertible to estimates of the average monthly lake evaporation, E(τ). This new method permits a good estimate of site‐specific lake evaporation rates without the data and computational requirements of the Penman energy budget procedure nor the comparatively expensive, time consuming field eddy correlation approach.     

HISTORICAL CHANGES IN UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER AREAS AND ISLANDS1

ABSTRACT: Periodic surveys of the upper Mississippi River since 1866 and a discharge record of nearly equal length provided an opportunity to learn more about the magnitudes and rates of geomorphic processes at work in large stream systems. Furthermore, geomorphic and hydrologic adjustments could be evaluated in relation to watershed land use changes, small‐scale climate fluctuations, and considerable modifications to the channel and floodplain during the period of record. The present study uses GIS mapping to quantitatively compare historical changes in mapped land and water phenomena in the upper Mississippi River Pool 10, located along southwest Wisconsin's border. Modest channel widening and decreases in island area throughout the study reach during the last century are detectable. Flood magnitudes and frequencies also have varied during this time, and stages and low flow discharges have increased since the 1940s. The latter hydrologic change appears to be closely associated with the reach's geomorphic adjustments. Results are representative of a valley reach where a major tributary contributes a large sand bedload, forming an alluvial fan of considerable size in the floodplain.     

Host Specificity of Flukes of the Genus Sphaerostomum (Trematoda: Opecoelidae) within Their Geographic Ranges

The host specificity of flukes belonging to the genus Sphaerostomum (S. bramae and S. globiporum) in the center and at the periphery of the genus range is discussed. Both fluke species are specific parasites of cyprinids. However, fish of nine other families and one cyclostome species have also been recorded as their hosts. At the periphery of the range, the spectrum of definitive hosts is broader than in the center owing to a greater number of unspecific hosts. In the center, unspecific hosts are represented by six fish species (Esox lucius, Misgurnus fossilis, Perca fluviatilis, Lota lota, Gymnocephalus cernuus, and Salmo sp.), four of which are predators. At the periphery, 11 fish species, including six predators (Anguilla anguilla, Barbatula barbatula, Cottus gobio, Cobitis taenia, Coregonus lavaretus, Salmo trutta, Alosa sp., Potamoschistus minutus, E. lucius, P. fluviatilis, and L. lota), and the cyclostome Lampetra fluviatilis are unspecific hosts. In the peripheral populations, compared to central, flukes manifest greater adaptive plasticity and can infest new hosts.     

VARIATION IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SNOWMELT RUNOFF IN OREGON AND ENSO AND PDO1

ABSTRACT: The value of using climate indices such as ENSO or PDO in water resources predictions is dependent on understanding the local relationship between these indices and streamflow over time. This study identifies long term seasonal and spatial variations in the strength of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) correlations with timing and magnitude of discharge in snowmelt streams in Oregon. ENSO is best correlated with variability in annual discharge, and PDO is best correlated with spring snowmelt timing and magnitude and timing of annual floods. Streams in the Cascades and Wallowa mountains show the strongest correlations, while the southernmost stream is not correlated with ENSO or PDO. ENSO correlations are weaker from 1920 to 1950 and vary significantly depending on whether Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or Niño 3.4 is used. PDO correlations are strong from 1920 to 1950 and weak or insignificant other years. Although there are not consistent increasing or decreasing trends in annual discharge or spring snowmelt timing, there are significant increases in fractional winter runoff that are independent of precipitation, PDO, or ENSO and may indicate monotonic winter warming.     

METHODOLOGY OF DELINEATING WELLHEAD PROTECTION ZONES IN CRYSTALLINE BEDROCK IN MAINE1

ABSTRACT: Delineation of contributing areas for wellhead protection around supply wells drilled into bedrock in Maine, USA, is currently achieved by assigning a fixed radius circle around the well. This project develops a methodology that incorporates hydrogeologic processes and ground water modeling (MODFLOW) and accounts for variable data availability to estimate the areas that contribute water to 26 bedrock supply wells. Outcrop fracture mapping and lineament analysis are used to characterize the fracture system. Multiple simulations are constructed of each site using ranges of values for recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and anisotropy. Uncertainty in the delineation process is accounted for by portraying the delineated areas as confidence zones that are constructed by overlapping the capture zones from the multiple simulations. The results are variable and depend on the ability to characterize a site in a way that can be easily modeled. Sites with complex hydrogeology tend to have larger contributing areas that reflect the greater uncertainty in the parameters. The majority of the sites, however, produce reasonable results that provide a much more accurate depiction of the area likely to contribute to a bedrock well than the fixed radius circle.     

Assessing catchment-wide mining-related impacts on sediment movement in the Swift Creek catchment, Northern Territory, Australia, using GIS and landform-evolution modelling techniques

The Swift Creek catchment, the first catchment to be affected should any impact occur as a result of mining of the Jabiluka uranium ore deposit, is located partly within the World Heritage Kakadu National Park (KNP), and partly within the Jabiluka Mineral Lease (JML) that has been excised from KNP. Preliminary linking of a landform evolution model with a Geographic Information System (GIS) has been completed and tested on a catchment-wide basis for long-term total catchment management. This project represents the first attempt to apply the model on a catchment-wide basis in the region. Linking the model with a GIS enhances the modelling process, as the GIS assists in the derivation, storage, manipulation, processing and visualisation of geo-referenced data on a catchment-wide scale. This preliminary assessment of landform evolution in the Swift Creek catchment demonstrates the complex process associated with the parameterisation of the SIBERIA model, and illustrates the benefits of integrating GIS with landform evolution modelling techniques. Additional research is required to develop a more integrated GIS and landform evolution modelling approach to assessing the possible impacts of mining on catchment sedimentary and hydrological processes.