AN EVALUATION OF FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATES BASED ON RAINFALL/RUNOFF MODELING1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation of flood frequency estimates simulated from a rainfall/runoff model is based on (1) computation of the equivalent years of record for regional estimating equations based on 50 small stream sites in Oklahoma and (2) computation of the bias for synthetic flood estimates as compared to observed estimates at 97 small stream sites with at least 20 years of record in eight eastern states. Because of the high intercorrelation of synthetic flood estimates between watersheds, little or no regional (spatial) information may be added to the network as a result of the modeling activity. The equivalent years of record for the regional estimating equations based totally on synthetic flood discharges is shown to be considerably less than the length of rainfall record used to simulate the runoff. Furthermore, the flood estimates from the rainfall/runoff model consistently underestimate the flood discharges based on observed record, particularly for the larger floods. Depending on the way bias is computed, the synthetic estimate of the 100-year flood discharge varies from 11 to 29 percent less than the value based on observed record. In addition, the correlation between observed and synthetic flood frequency estimates at the same site is also investigated. The degree of correlation between these estimates appears to vary with recurrence interval. Unless the correlation between these two estimates is known, it is not possible to compute a weighted estimate with minimum variance.     

A PLANNING METHOD FOR EVALUATING DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS OF DETENTION BASINS1

While storm water detention basins are widely used for controlling increases in peak discharges that result from urbanization, recent research has indicated that under certain circumstances detention storage can actually cause increases in peak discharge rates. Because of the potential for detrimental downstream effects, storm water management policies often require downstream effects to be evaluated. Such evaluation requires the design engineer to collect additional topographic and land use data and make costly hydrologic analyses. Thus, a method, which is easy to apply and which would indicate whether or not a detailed hydrologic analysis of downstream impacts is necessary, should decrease the average cost of storm water management designs. A planning method that does not require either a large data base or a computer is presented. The time co-ordinates of runoff hydrographs are estimated using the time-of-concentration and the SCS runoff curve number; the discharge coordinates are estimated using a simple peak discharge equation. While the planning method does not require a detailed design of the detention basin, it does provide a reasonably accurate procedure for evaluating whether or not the installation of a detention basin will cause adverse downstream flooding.     

DOWNSCALED CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW STUDY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Downscaling coarse resolution climate data to scales that are useful for impact assessment studies is receiving increased attention. Basin-scale hydrologic processes and other local climate impacts related to water resources such as reservoir management, crop and forest productivity, and ecosystem response require climate information at scales that are much finer than current and future GCM resolutions. The Regional Climate System Model (RCSM) is a dynamic downscaling system that has been used since 1994 for short-term precipitation and streamflow predictions and seasonal hindcast analysis with good skill. During the 1997–1998 winter, experimental seasonal forecasts were made in collaboration with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and UCLA with promising results. Preliminary studies of a control and 2°CO₂ perturbation for the southwestern U.S. have been performed.     

URBANIZATION,FLOOD FREQUENCY,AND SALMON ABUNDANCE IN PUGET LOWLAND STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Urbanization history and flood frequencies were determined in six low-order streams in the Puget Lowlands, Washington, for the period between the 1940150s and the 1980190s. Using discharge records from USGS gauging stations, each basin was separated into periods prior to and after urban expansion. Four of the study basins exhibited significant changes in urbanized area, whereas two of the study basins exhibited only limited change in urbanized area and effectively serve as control basins. Each of the basins that experienced a significant increase in urbanized area exhibited increased flood frequency; pre-urbanization 10-year recurrence interval discharges correspond to 1 to 4-year recurrence interval events in post-urbanization records. In contrast, no discernible shift in flood frequency was observed in either of the control basins. Spawner survey data available for three of the study basins reveal systematic declines in salmon abundance in two urbanizing basins and no evidence for decreases in a control basin. These data imply a link between ongoing salmon population declines and either increased flood frequency or associated changes in habitat structure.     

WATERSHED RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE AT GLACIER NATIONAL PARK1

ABSTRACT: We have developed an approach which examines ecosystem function and the potential effects of climatic shifts. The Lake McDonald watershed of Glacier National Park was the focus for two linked research activities: acquisition of baseline data on hydrologic, chemical and aquatic organism attributes that characterize this pristine northern rocky mountain watershed, and further developing the Regional Hydro-Ecosystem Simulation System (RHESSys), a collection of integrated models which collectively provide spatially explicit, mechanistically-derived outputs of ecosystem processes, including hydrologic outflow, soil moisture, and snow-pack water equivalence. In this unique setting field validation of RHESSys, outputs demonstrated that reasonable estimates of SWE and streamflow are being produced. RHESSys was used to predict annual stream discharge and temperature. The predictions, in conjunction with the field data, indicated that aquatic resources of the park may be significantly affected. Utilizing RHESSys to predict potential climate scenarios and response of other key ecosystem components can provide scientific insights as well as proactive guidelines for national park management.     

CHALLENGES IN MODELING HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY PROCESSES IN RIPARIAN ZONES1

This paper presents key challenges in modeling water quality processes of riparian ecosystems: How can the spatial and temporal extent of water and solute mixing in the riparian zone be modeled? What level of model complexity is justified? How can processes at the riparian scale be quantified? How can the impact of riparian ecosystems be determined at the watershed scale? Flexible models need to be introduced that can simulate varying levels of hillslope‐riparian mixing dictated by topography, upland and riparian depths, and moisture conditions. Model simulations need to account for storm event peak flow conditions when upland solute loadings may either bypass or overwhelm the riparian zone. Model complexity should be dictated by the level of detail in measured data. Model algorithms need to be developed using new macro‐scale and meso‐scale experiments that capture process dynamics at the hillslope or landscape scales. Monte Carlo simulations should be an integral part of model simulations and rigorous tests that go beyond simple time series, and point‐output comparisons need to be introduced. The impact of riparian zones on watershed‐scale water quality can be assessed by performing simulations for representative hillsloperiparian scenarios.     

MODELING EFFECTS OF BRUSH MANAGEMENT ON THE RANGELAND WATER BUDGET: EDWARDS PLATEAU,TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to evaluate the influence of woody plants on water budgets of semi‐arid rangelands in karst terrain. The model was configured for the hydrologic evaluation of the North Fork of the Upper Guadalupe River watershed and was calibrated and verified using measured flow data. Nash and Sutcliffe fit efficiencies for daily and monthly verification periods were 0.09 and 0.50, respectively. Streamflow, baseflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) rates were comparable to published field data. Simulated deep recharge was considerably higher than the published values for the Edwards Plateau. The model was then used to simulate conditions with existing brush cover and four different brush removal scenarios. Scenarios were created to represent existing brush and the removal of brush from only locations that were either covered by heavy brush, were on a moderate slope, or were in shallow soils. Resulting data was compared to previous studies of both field experiments and model simulations. Maximum brush removal resulted in a reduction in ET equal to 31.94 mm/yr depth over the entire basin, or 46.62 mm/yr depth over the treated area. Removal of heavy brush cover resulted in the greatest changes in evapotranspiration, surface runoff, base‐flow, and deep recharge. Slope was found to have the greatest effect on lateral subsurface flow.     

GROUND WATER/SURFACE WATER RESPONSES TO GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS,SANTA CLARA‐CALLEGUAS BASIN,VENTURA, CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara‐Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate‐driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM‐RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM‐RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.     

WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS IN A NEW MEXICO WATER PLANNING REGION1

ABSTRACT: The population in the Jemez y Sangre Water Planning Region of New Mexico has reached the point at which the demand for water exceeds available supplies, particularly when precipitation is below average, as has frequently occurred in recent years. The desire to develop a sustainable water supply that relies on renewable supplies in wet years and preserves the water in storage for times of drought motivated a diverse set of stakeholders in the region to participate in regional water planning. The planning effort culminated in development of the Jemez y Sangre Regional Water Plan, which was adopted by municipal and county governments in the region. The plan assesses and compares water supply and demand in the region and recommends alternatives for protecting and restoring the existing water supply and addressing the pending gap between supply and demand anticipated by the year 2060. To convey to decision makers the alternatives available to solve the future water shortage, option charts were developed to portray the amount of water that could be obtained or conserved through their implementation. The option charts show that the projected gap between supply and demand cannot be met through one alternative only, but will require a combination of alternatives.     

WEPP INTERNET INTERFACES FOR FOREST EROSION PREDICTION1

ABSTRACT: The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) is a physically based erosion model for applications to dryland and irrigated agriculture, rangeland, and forests. U.S. Forest Service (USFS) experience showed that WEPP was not being adapted because of the difficulty in building files describing the input conditions in the existing interfaces. To address this difficulty, a suite of Internet interfaces with a database was developed to more easily predict soil erosion for a wide range of climatic and forest conditions, including roads, fires, and timber harvest. The database included a much larger climate database than was previously available for applications in remote forest and rangeland areas. Validation results showed reasonable agreement between erosion values reported in the literature and values predicted by the interfaces to the WEPP model.