Evaluating the effects of alternative forest management plans under various physiographic settings using historical records as a reference

Using historical General Land Office record as a reference, this study employed a landscape-scale disturbance and succession model to estimate the future cumulative effects of six alternative management plans on the tree species composition for various physiographic settings for the Mark Twain National Forest in Missouri. The results indicate that over a 200-year horizon, the relative abundance of black oak and pine species groups will decrease and the relative abundance of the white oak species group will increase, regardless of management strategy. General Land Office witness tree records provide a measure of tree species composition in the period from 1800 to 1850, prior to the large-scale influx of European settlers. Compared to the tree species composition described in the General Land Office records, the six contemporary management alternatives considered all would lead to a lower abundance of pine species, a higher abundance of red/black oak species, and a slightly higher abundance of white oak species after 200 years. Impacts of management on tree species composition varied with physiographic settings. The projected relative abundance of pine differed significantly across the five physiographic classes over the first 40 years of the simulation. In the medium term (simulation years 41-100) the projected relative pine abundance differed significantly among only four physiographic classes. In the long term (simulation years 100-200) the projected relative pine abundance differed for only one physiographic class. In contrast, differences among physiographic classes in the relative abundance of black oaks and white oaks increased over time. In general, the expected long-term differences in relative tree species abundance among six proposed alternative management plans are small compared to shifts in tree species composition that have occurred from 1850 to the present.     

中国工业废水治理效率评价

基于投入产出的思想,应用DEA模型对2008年中国工业废水治理效率进行静态评价,得出各地区当前工业废水治理效率.用Malmquist指数对中国2003-2008年工业废水治理效率进行动态评价,分别得出近几年中国工业废水治理的名义全要素生产率和实际全要素生产率.结果表明,中国工业废水平均治理效率仅为0.630,2008年达到DEA有效的地区仅占16.7％,几乎所有地区都处在规模收益递减;2003-2008年间的中国工业废水治理名义T下P为0.922,实际TFP为0.943,即分别在此期间平均每年下降7.8％和5.7％,造成逐年下降的主要原因是技术的落后.     

云南高原湖泊流域土地利用与水质变化异质性分析

以云南省九大高原湖泊为例,通过面板数据方式分析对高原湖泊流域土地利用类型变化,通过库兹涅兹曲线相关内容对利用强度的分析以及与水质的动态变化情况,得到耕地、园地、湿地面积与湖泊含磷量存在一定负相关.林地、牧草地、建设用地面积与湖泊含磷量存在一定正相关.牧草地、耕地、园地、湿地面积与湖泊含氮量存在一定负相关,建设用地面积与湖泊含氮量存在一定正相关.园地和耕地面积与污染综合指数存在负相关,建设用地面积与污染综合指数存在负相关.分析指出,滇池、泸沽湖处于流域协调区间,阳宗海、抚仙湖、星云湖、程海处于流域冲突区间,洱海、异龙湖处于冲突区间向协调区间转型过程中.     

Co-benefits and additionality of the clean development mechanism: An empirical analysis

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows industrialized countries to comply with the Kyoto Protocol by using carbon offsets from developing countries. There are two puzzles within this carbon market: additionality (the proposed activity would not have occurred in its absence) and co-benefits (the project has other environmental benefits besides climate mitigation). This paper proposes an econometric approach to evaluate the CDM effect on sulfur dioxide emission reductions and assess its additionality indirectly. Our empirical model is applied to China's emissions at the prefecture level. We found that the CDM does not have a statistically significant effect in lowering sulfur dioxide emissions. This result casts doubt on additionality of these CDM activities, that is, they would have happened anyway.     

Estimating influence of stocking regimes on livestock grazing distributions

Livestock often concentrate grazing in particular regions of landscapes while partly or wholly avoiding other regions. Dispersing livestock from the heavily grazed regions is a central challenge in grazing land management. Position data gathered from GPS-collared livestock hold potential for increasing knowledge of factors driving livestock aggregation patterns, but advances in gathering the data have outpaced advancements in analyzing and learning from it. We fit a hierarchical seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model to explore how season of stocking and the location where cattle entered a pasture influenced grazing distributions. Stocking alternated between summer on one side of the pasture one year and fall on another side of the pasture the next year for 18 years. Waypoints were recorded on cattle for 50 d each year. We focused our analysis on the pasture's 10 most heavily grazed 4-ha units, because these units were the most prone to negative grazing impacts. Though grazing of the study units was always disproportionately heavy, it was much heavier with the summer than fall stocking regime: Bayesian confidence intervals indicate summer grazing of study units was approximately double the average fall grazing value. This is our core result, and it illustrates the strong effect stocking season or date or both can have on grazing distributions. We fit three additional models to explore the relative importance of stocking season versus location. According to this analysis, stocking season played a role, but stocking location was the main driver. Ostensibly minor factors (e.g. stocking location) can greatly influence livestock distributions.     

云南省土壤环境质量分析系统设计与实现

土壤是人类赖以生存的基本要素之一,然而随着我国经济社会的发展,土壤环境污染日益严重,已威胁到各种陆生动植物的生态平衡。为落实环保部《关于加强土壤污染防治工作的意见》要求,2006年云南省土壤污染调查全面启动。系统运用Microsoft Visual Basic作为开发语言,SQL Server作为数据库,Arc GIS作为地图开发工具,来完成数据的导入和校验,统计、评价和对比的分析与查询,以及各类统计图表的自动生成。系统开发解决了庞大数据的管理与分析问题,对数据进行了生动的图表化表示并通过数据自动更新机制,简化了数据的管理工作,提高了《云南省土壤环境质量报告》的编制效率,对各级管理部门的决策工作具有较大的辅助意义。     

基于数据场和云模型的洪水灾害风险等级评估

根据灾害风险系统的定义以及洪水灾害的特点,用灾情损失与地形危险性的综合作用描述洪水灾害风险。针对研究单元风险的内在联系和等级概念的模糊性、随机性,提出基于数据场和云模型的洪水灾害风险等级评估方法,以期为洪水灾害风险管理提供科学依据。以苏州市和上海市(崇明县除外)为例,首先用数据场对灾情数据进行扩散;再用云模型对地形进行等级划分;最后对两者进行耦合得到该地区的洪水灾害风险等级划分。结果表明:苏州市中心偏北区域和上海市中心区域综合风险等级最高,并向四周呈递减趋势;总体上中部风险等级最高,北部次之,南部最低。     

陕西省县域旅游效率的空间格局及影响因素

提质增效是目前旅游产业发展面临的重要课题。基于数据包络分析法,选用Python爬取技术,对陕西省107个县域的旅游效率进行测度分析,探讨县域旅游效率的空间格局及其影响的主要因素。研究表明：（1）陕西省旅游效率达到有效的县域数量整体偏低,高旅游效率县域多集中于市辖郊县。（2）县域旅游效率分布不均衡。陕北地区高旅游效率县域主要集中在黄河沿岸,关中地区呈现“西高东低”的现象,陕南地区高旅游效率县域则集中在地市交界处。（3）影响县域旅游总效率、技术效率和规模效率的主导因素不同。旅游收入占GDP比例（反映旅游业水平）、人口密度（反映县域发展水平）及汽车站数量（反映交通服务水平）是影响陕西省县域旅游总效率及技术效率的主导因素,而旅游资源禀赋（反映旅游业水平）、人口密度（反映县域发展水平）则是影响陕西省县域旅游规模效率的主导因素。     

中国水禽产业时空演进及影响因素——基于全要素生产率增长视角

水禽产业快速发展离不开技术进步的贡献。准确审视水禽产业全要素生产率的时空演进规律,探讨不同阶段水禽全要素生产率（TFP）的提升策略十分重要。基于中国水禽体系产业经济团队的调研数据和固定观测点数据,结合有关年鉴整理出水禽的投入和产出数据,运用GIS技术分析后得出结论：2010—2018年水禽产业时空演进特征为“东退西进,北向南移”。结合永续盘存法和索洛余值,运用数据包络分析法（DEA-Malmquist）估算全国29个省份水禽TFP指数,比较各地区的TFP增长率和贡献率,进而分析此期间的时空演进规律,结果显示：2014年TFP增长率大幅下跌,2015年又逐渐上升,2016年以后才趋于平稳增长,概括水禽TFP增长率的时空变化规律为先降后升的“U”型走势。运用Tobit模型分析其变动的影响因素,结果表明：受H7N9突发事件影响,水禽产业劳动力投入和资本投入发生了改变,主要影响因素为水电及燃料动力投入、基础设施维护及新增投入、疫苗防疫及医疗投入等,这些因素对水禽TFP增长的时空变动影响显著,进一步说明水禽技术效率有待提升,风险规避机制有待完善。     

中国交通碳排放及影响因素时空异质性

选取30个省级行政单位作为空间单元,采用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）方法对交通碳排放时空分布格局进行研究,同时考虑空间单元的差异性,构建地理加权回归（GWR）模型分析交通碳排放影响因素的时空异质性.研究发现：2000~2015年交通碳排放量呈现显著的空间聚类特征,聚类趋势逐年加强.双变量空间自相关指数为0.165~0.274,显著性水平介于0.016~0.045,表明交通碳排放同机动车保有量、GDP、货运周转量及客运周转量之间存在显著的空间正相关关系.GWR模型的R²在0.783~0.865之间,而OLS模型的R²在0.675~0.844之间,且GWR模型的AICc值均低于OLS模型的,说明GWR模型的拟合结果明显优于OLS模型,可以更好地解释交通碳排放的影响机制.GWR的回归结果表明碳排放的影响因素存在明显的时空异质性特征,其中GDP是主要的推动因素,部分地区回归系数高达0.91,2000年影响程度由东向西递减,而2005、2010和2015年由北向南递减.客运周转量起到关键的抑制作用,影响程度由东北向西南递减.因此建议应当充分考虑碳排放影响因素的时空异质性特征,制定差异化的碳减排政策.