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321.
Use of Integrated Modeling to Enhance Estimates of Population Dynamics Obtained from Limited Data 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
MICHAEL SCHAUB†‡‡ OLIVIER GIMENEZ‡§ ANTOINE SIERRO† RAPHAËL ARLETTAZ† 《Conservation biology》2007,21(4):945-955
Abstract: Demographic data of rare and endangered species are often too sparse to estimate vital rates and population size with sufficient precision for understanding population growth and decline. Yet, the combination of different sources of demographic data into one statistical model holds promise. We applied Bayesian integrated population modeling to demographic data from a colony of the endangered greater horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) . Available data were the number of subadults and adults emerging from the colony roost at dusk, the number of newborns from 1991 to 2005, and recapture data of subadults and adults from 2004 and 2005. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, and demographic rates remained constant across time. The greater horseshoe bat is a long-lived species with high survival rates (first year: 0.49 [SD 0.06]; adults: 0.91 [SD 0.02]) and low fecundity (0.74 [SD 0.12]). The yearly average population growth was 4.4% (SD 0.1%) and there were 92 (SD 10) adults in the colony in year 2005. Had we analyzed each data set separately, we would not have been able to estimate fecundity, the estimates of survival would have been less precise, and the estimate of population growth biased. Our results demonstrate that integrated models are suitable for obtaining crucial demographic information from limited data. 相似文献
322.
GREG J. McINERNY DAVID L. ROBERTS†‡ ANTHONY J. DAVY PHILLIP J. CRIBB† 《Conservation biology》2006,20(2):562-567
Abstract: We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately, many species are only known through a few "chance" sightings or a handful of specimens, and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. Several methods have been proposed for estimating the probability of extinction. However, comparison within and between species is difficult because of variations in sighting rates. We applied a probabilistic method that incorporates sighting rate to the sighting record of Vietnamese slipper orchids ( Paphiopedilum ). The method generates a probability that another sighting will occur given the previous sighting rate and the time since last observation. This allows greater comparability between species discovered at different times. Its predictions were more highly correlated with the World Conservation Union criteria than previous methods. Trends in data collection and the political climate of a country, which affects access to material, are important potential sources of variation that affect sighting rates. A lack of understanding of the process by which data are generated makes inferring extinction from sighting records difficult because extinction status depends on how the sighting rate varies. However, such methods allow rapid conservation prioritization of taxa that are poorly known and would otherwise go unassessed. 相似文献
323.
R. Burnett S. Bartlett D. Krewski G. Robert M. Raad-Young 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》1994,1(4):325-332
A statistical model for longitudinal count data is used to examine the potential adverse health effects of ambient air pollution. Daily respiratory admissions to 164 acute care hospitals in Ontario are obtained for the period 1983 to 1988. Estimates of ozone levels in the vicinity of each hospital are determined from air pollution monitoring stations maintained by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. Generalized estimating equation methods are used to make inferences about the regression and overdispersion parameters. The admission data display little evidence of serial correlation and extra Poisson variation. However, admission rates vary considerably among hospitals. This latter source of variation needs to be taken into account in examining the effects of air pollution on respiratory health status. 相似文献
324.
讨论了BP网络模型存在的不足及建模条件,提出了建立合理的BP网络模型的基本原则和步骤.针对水质评价问题,通过在各类水质污染指标浓度区间内生成随机分布样本的方法,组成足够多用于BP网络训练、检验和测试用的样本,建立了辽河水质综合评价的BP网络模型;给出了区分不同类别水质的模型分界值样本和模型输出分界值. 相似文献
325.
空气自动监测系统的仪器仪表多样化,以及数据采集装置和数据格式的差异,给系统软硬件的集成,以及数据应用和管理带来了不便,也是构成空气自动监测信息化进程中的技术瓶颈之一,通过对空气自动监测系统软件开发和数据整合模式的对比分析,探讨了解决问题的途径。 相似文献
326.
Incorporating Collateral Data in Conservation Biology 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
NICHOLAS A. LINACRE§ ALLAN STEWART-OATEN† MARK A. BURGMAN PETER K. ADES‡ 《Conservation biology》2004,18(3):768-774
Abstract: Conservation biologists often need to set ecological modeling assumptions or estimate parameters from sparse data. In some cases this problem can be addressed by incorporating data from closely related species or from the same species at different sites (i.e., collateral data). Currently no structured methods exist for incorporating such information. An analogous problem in Actuarial science is to set premium rates in situations with little direct data on claim frequency or size. The rates are estimated using actuarial credibility theory, which incorporates collateral data with the direct data. actuarial credibility theory combined with the actuarial control cycle financial management process also provides an adaptive mechanism for updating assumptions. This theory may have some utility for ecologists wanting to incorporate collateral data in an adaptive management framework, a companion to approaches such as Bayesian updating. We describe the historical development of actuarial credibility theory from early ad hoc methods to empirical Bayes approaches. We explore some of the theory's strengths, such as relative simple formulae for incorporation collateral data, and we explore some of the theory's weaknesses, such as the use of the best linear approximation to the Bayes estimate. We illustrate potential applications of the theory using an example on the mortality rate of the Powerful Owl ( Ninox strenua ). 相似文献
327.
Walter W. Piegorsch 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》1994,1(2):153-162
Hierarchical models are considered for estimating the probability of agreement between two outcomes or endpoints from an environmental
toxicity experiment. Emphasis is placed on generalized regression models, under which the prior mean is related to a linear
combination of explanatory variables via a monotone function. This function defines the scale over which the systematic effects
are modelled as additive. Specific illustration is provided for the logistic link function. The hierarchical model employs
a conjugate beta prior that leads to parametric empirical Bayes estimators of the individual agreement parameters. An example
from environmental carcinogenesis illustrates the methods, with motivation derived from estimation of the concordance between
two species carcinogenicity outcomes. Based on a large database of carcinogenicity studies, the inter-species concordance
is seen to be reasonably informative, i.e. in the range 67–84%. Stratification into pertinent potency-related sub-groups via
the logistic model is seen to improve concordance estimation: for environmental stimuli at the extremes of the potency spectrum,
concordance can reach well above 90%. 相似文献
328.
彭孟良 《湖南环境生物职业技术学院学报》2002,8(1):44-48
本文主要讨论基于Client/Server数据完整性约束及其如何实施企业业务规则,并以SQLServer和PowerBuilder为例,介绍了数据完整性约束的实现技术. 相似文献
329.
Christel Faes Marc Aerts Helena Geys Geert Molenberghs Lieven Declerck 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2004,11(3):305-322
Developmental toxicity studies are widely used to investigate the potential risk of environmental hazards. In dose–response experiments, subjects are randomly allocated to groups receiving various dose levels. Tests for trend are then often applied to assess possible dose effects. Recent techniques for risk assessment in this area are based on fitting dose–response models. The complexity of such studies implies a number of non-trivial challenges for model development and the construction of dose-related trend tests, including the hierarchical structure of the data, litter effects inducing extra variation, the functional form of the dose–response curve, the adverse event at dam or at fetus level, the inference paradigm, etc. The purpose of this paper is to propose a Bayesian trend test based on a non-linear power model for the dose effect and using an appropriate model for clustered binary data. Our work is motivated by the analysis of developmental toxicity studies, in which the offspring of exposed and control rodents are examined for defects. Simulations show the performance of the method over a number of samples generated under typical experimental conditions. 相似文献
330.
B. Sango Otieno Christine M. Anderson-Cook 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2006,13(3):311-324
Circular or angular variables indicating direction or cyclical time can be of great interest to scientists studying ecology,
biology or environmental issues. A common problem of interest in circular data is estimating a preferred direction and its
corresponding distribution. This problem is complicated by the so-called “wrap-around effect” on the circle, which exists
because there is no natural minimum or maximum. The usual statistics employed for linear data are inappropriate for directional
data, as they do not account for its circular nature. Three choices for summarizing the preferred direction (the sample circular
mean, sample circular median and a circular analog of the Hodges–Lehmann estimator) are discussed, with examples from environmental
and ecological applications. Similar to the linear data case, the relative emphases of different methods sometimes yield different
measures of preferred direction in the presence of outliers or lack of symmetry in the original data.
Received: November 2003 / Revised: June 2004 相似文献