MATHEMATICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE TOCCOA FALLS,GEORGIA, DAM-BREAK FLOOD1

ABSTRACT: Four dam-break models were selected for testing with an observed data set from the November 6, 1977, disaster at Toccoa Falls, Georgia. The Kelly Barnes Dam failure occurred with a 35-ft head of water and produced a peak discharge of 23,000 ft³/s. The selected models included: (1) Modified Puls (MP), (2) U. S. Army Corps of Engineers Gradually Varied Unsteady Flow Profiles (USTFLO), (3) National Weather Service's Dam-Break Flood Forecast (DBFF), and (4) U. S. Geological Survey's method of characteristics (MOC) coupled with a general purpose streamflow simulation (J879DB). Achieving a successful simulation was easiest with the MP model. The DBFF model required a moderate effort while the MOC-J879DB models required some data alterations and considerable effort. The USTFLO model failed to simulate this test case. In the stream segment near the dam, the computed peak stages were generally within 5 feet of the observed high water marks. Elsewhere, the peak stage results were much better, generally within 2 feet. The peak discharges computed by the models were generally within 20 percent of discharges estimated by slope area and contracted opening measurements, except near the dam where the MOC-J879DB model's results was 80 percent too high.     

A UNIFYING SET OF PROBABILITY TRANSFORMS FOR STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY1

Abstract: An ordered set of probability sensity functions was derived form transforms of the normal distribution. Variate transforms are based on orders of exponentiation. The set of distributions includes the log-normal. a partial basis for use of these functins in hydrology is demonstrated by establishing some required properties. A concept of mixed samples of zero and nonzero elements forming nonseparable sets of virtual and real elements is introduced to establish a physical lower limit of sampled diata independent of functional bounds.     

ESTIMATING PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD PROBABILITIES1

ABSTRACT: Methods of computing probabilities of extreme events that affect the design of major engineering structures have been developed for most failure causes, but not for design floods such as the probable maximum flood (PMF). Probabilities for PMF estimates would be useful for economic studies and risk assessments. Reasons for the reluctance of some hydrologists to assign a probability to a PMF are discussed, and alternative methods of assigning a probability are reviewed. Currently, the extrapolation of a frequency curve appears to be the most practical alternative. Using 46 stations in the Mid-Atlantic region, the log-gamma, log-normal, and log-Gumbel distributions were used to estimate PMF probabilities. A 600,000-year return period appears to be a reasonable probability to use for PMFs in the Mid-Atlantic region. The coefficient of skew accounts for much of the variation in computed probabilities.     

PREDICTING TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL FLOOD DYNAMICS USING A PRECALIBRATED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A large storm in December 1990 allowed the evaluation of flood predictions from a hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that had been previously calibrated on the West Fork of Walker Branch Watershed, a gauged 37.5 ha catchment near Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The model predicts both hydrograph dynamics and the spatial distribution of overland flow using an index based on topography. Maximum extent of overland flow during the storm was determined from patterns of leaf litter removal from valley bottoms. Both the flood hydrograph and the extent of overland flow were accurately predicted using model parameters obtained from a three-month period of normal flow conditions during 1983.     

黄河北干流与渭河相遇洪水分析

黄河北干流与渭河位于黄土高原，暴雨是洪水的重要成因．本文分析了近２０００年的历史资料，提出该地区的洪水具有周期性，１９世纪洪水达到高峰，２０世纪洪水规模有所降低，并分析了黄河北干流与渭河及其支流径、洛河洪水相遇问题：四河相遇的概率很小，多形成特大洪水，两河相遇是较常发生的事件，多形成中等以下洪水。三门峡水库的淤积使该地区洪水灾害加剧．同时还分析了该地区洪水对黄河下游洪水的影响。     

流域性洪涝及其指标研究

本文讨论了区域洪涝指标，认为区域洪涝指标应反映出不同洪涝面积和不同洪涝等级对区域洪涝的影响程度，基于这一思想，提出了一个区域洪涝指标计算公式。为了使区域洪涝研究更为具体和可比，本文在分析区域洪涝指标的基础上，提出了流域性洪涝的概念，并以《中国近五年百旱涝分布图集》为基础，建立了淮河流域５００年流性洪涝指标序列及其等级。     

FLOW DURATION CURVES II: A REVIEW OF APPLICATIONS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A streamflow duration curve illustrates the relationship between the frequency and magnitude of streamflow. Flow duration curves have a long history in the field of water-resource engineering and have been used to solve problems in water-quality management, hydropower, instream flow methodologies, water-use planning, flood control, and river and reservoir sedimentation, and for scientific comparisons of streamflow characteristics across watersheds. This paper reviews traditional applications and provides extensions to some new applications, including water allocation, wasteload allocation, river and wetland inundation mapping, and the economic selection of a water-resource project.     

ESTIMATING ANNUAL FLOOD PROBABILITIES USING FOURIER SERIES METHOD1

ABSTRACT: The Fourier series method is proposed as a feasible non-parametric approach for the estimation of the density and distribution functions of annual floods. Clearly, the goodness of fit to empirical data improves as higher Fourier terms are incorporated, and the choice of a higher term depends on whether the inclusion of this term will reduce the fitting error to within a specified tolerance level. This method was applied to the flood data from eight rivers, and to data simulated from known distributions. The results are clearly better than other parametric methods, just like other non-parametric techniques currently used to estimate annual flood probabilities.     

COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING FLOOD MAGNITUDES ON SMALL STREAMS IN GEORGIA1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey has collected flood data for small, natural streams at many sites throughout Georgia during the past 20 years. Flood-frequency relations were developed for these data using four methods: (1) observed (log-Pearson Type HI analysis) data, (2) rainfall-runoff model, (3) regional regression equations, and (4) map-model combination. The results of the latter three methods were compared to the analyses of the observed data in order to quantify the differences in the methods and determine if the differences are statistically significant. Comparison of regression-estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years (1966 to 1985) and 10 years (1976 to 1985) of record at different sites of annual peak record indicate that the regression-estimates are not significantly different from the observed data. Comparison of rainfall-runoff-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 10 years and 20 years of annual peak record indicated that the model-simulated estimates are significantly and not significantly different, respectively. The biasedness probably is due to a “loss of variance” in the averaging procedures used within the model and the short length of record as indicated in the 10 and 20 years of record. The comparison of map-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years of annual-peak runoff indicate that the simulated estimates are not significantly different. Comparison of “improved” map-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years of annual-peak runoff data indicate that the simulated estimates are different. The average adjustment factor suggested by Lichty and Liscum to calculate the “improved” map-model overestimates in Georgia by an average of 20 percent for three recurrence intervals analyzed.     

A SEMI-DISTRIBUTED ADAPTIVE MODEL FOR REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: A semi-distributed deterministic model for real-time flood forecasting in large basins is proposed. Variability of rainfall and losses in space is preserved and the effective rainfall-direct runoff model segment based on the Clark procedure is incorporated. The distribution of losses in space is assumed proportional to rainfall intensity and their evolution in time is represented by the φ-index; furthermore, an initial period without production of effective rainfall is considered. The first estimation of losses and the associated forecasts of flow are performed at the time corresponding to the first rise observed in the hydrograph. Then the forecasts of flow are corrected at each subsequent time step through the updating of the φ-index. The model was tested by using rainfall-runoff events observed on two Italian basins and the predictions of flow for lead times up to six hours agree reasonably well with the observations in each event. For example, for the coefficient of persistence, which compares the model forecasts with those generated by the no-model assumption, appreciable positive values were computed. In particular, for the larger basin with an area of 4,147 km², the mean values were 0.4, 0.4 and 0.5 for forecast lead times of two hours, four hours and six hours, respectively. Good performance of the model is also shown by a comparison of its flow predictions with those derived from a unit hydrograph based model