上海市“十四五”规划绿色发展驱动因素研究

本文首次以上海市“十四五”规划的视角,使用系统动力学方法研究上海市的绿色发展因素。首先确定了由经济、社会、环境、资源四个子系统交叉融合而构成上海市绿色发展系统,再基于系统动力学原理和上海市2012—2019年的数据构建上海市绿色发展模型,响应“十四五”规划在绿色发展方面设立的目标,构建多个未来发展情景并进行指标参数调控,依据各个情景的仿真结果,分析并总结了“十四五”规划背景下上海市的绿色发展特点。研究结果表明,影响绿色发展的关键因素由主到次依次为生态环境建设支出、研发支出、产业结构调整。相比于产业的投资结构调整,上海市对从业人员结构的调整可以高效平衡经济与环境的发展;加快科技创新可以在很大程度上抑制碳排放,从而快速实现上海市的“双碳”目标;针对化学污染物的治理,污染源防治不但十分有效,而且有利于持续性发展,这些措施应是上海市政府的首选。     

Process of rice straw degradation and dynamic trend of pH by the microbial community MC1

The process of the rice straw degradation in the fermentor with aeration at 290 ml/h was studied. The results of dissolved oxygen （DO） indicated that the optimum DO during cellulose degradation by microbial community MC1 ranged from 0.01 to 0.12 mg/L. The change model ofpH values was as follows： irrespective of the initial pH of the medium, pH values decreased rapidly to approximate 6.0 after being inoculated within 48 h when cellulose was strongly degraded, and then increased slowly to 8.0--9.0 until cellulose was degraded completely. During the degradation process, 15 kinds of organic compounds were checked out by GC-MS. Most of them were organic acids. Quantity analysis was carried out, and the maximum content compound was ethyl acetate which reached 13.56 g/L on the day 4. The cellulose degradation quantity and ratio analyses showed that less quantity （under batch fermentation conditions） and longer interval （under semi-fermentation conditions） of rice straw added to fermentation system were contributed to matching the change model of pH, and increasing the quantity and ratio of rice straw degradation during cellulose degrading process. The highest degradation ratio was observed under the condition office straw added one time every five days （under semi-fermentation conditions）.     

粉煤灰最大往返剪切作用面上应变破坏标准的应力条件

基于文献[1]提出的最大往返剪切作用面上的液化应力条件和粉煤灰的动三轴试验数据,运用回归分析方法拟合曲线及相关参数建立了粉煤灰的破坏应力条件,并应用F检验法对参数的回归效果进行了检验,检验结果表明参数的回归效果高度显著。得出的破坏应力条件表明初始剪应力与动剪应力的倒数间并不呈线性关系,而是二次多项式关系,这与张克绪所提出的应力条件存在着差异。因此,可初步认为张克绪的液化应力条件不能直接运用于粉煤灰。     

大气环境监测全过程质量控制研究

我国经济飞快的发展速度,不但丰富了人们的生活内容、方便了人们的生活,而且还在人们生活中产生了一些负面影响,大气污染问题已经引起了国家政府以及我国民众的一致关注,国家还为此制定并颁布了相关的整顿治理措施,在大气环境治理方面,大气监测是重要手段,本文对大气环境监测全过程质量控制问题展开分析研究。     

大力推进城市资源循环利用基地建设——以北京市朝阳区资源循环利用产业基地为例

资源循环利用基地的建设是破解城市固体废弃物“邻避效应”的创新道路,有助于新型城市功能区的建设,是推进资源循环利用的主要方式。以北京市朝阳区资源循环利用产业基地为例,研究其基地建设的优势基础及制约因素,通过探索基地建设模式,分析了基地建设的总体思路和重要举措,以期为其他地区资源循环利用基地建设提供经验。     

基于超效率DEA模型的三峡库区生态效率评价及空间演化格局分析

本文基于2010—2017年的统计数据,首先采用超效率DEA模型对三峡库区26个区县的生态效率进行测算,然后运用空间自相关分析方法对三峡库区生态效率的演化格局进行了实证分析,探索三峡库区生态效率的时空动态演变特征。研究表明:2010—2017年三峡库区生态效率平均水平处于0.5601～1.1920,整体呈现波动性变化趋势,生态效率在一定程度上有所改善,但是整体水平仍然较低;从区域层面看,各个区县间生态效率水平不平衡,空间分布上呈现"西高东低"的非均衡性特征。局部空间自相关分析表明,三峡库区2010—2017年集聚性呈逐渐减弱态势,空间异质性逐渐增加,整体的生态效率差异变大。最后依据实证研究分析结果,本文对如何提升三峡库区生态效率提出了相应的政策建议。     

国家自主贡献机制下的减排力度调控机制设计

现有国家自主贡献机制存在约束力弱、减排力度小的问题,对此,本文在论证该机制内在缺陷的基础上,基于信息不对称理论的委托代理模型设计了减排力度调控机制。该减排力度调控机制既能使各国的自主贡献额具有强约束力,又能灵活调控各国的减排力度,并发掘各国的减排潜力。该减排力度调控机制有助于弥补现有国家自主贡献机制的缺陷,促进国际社会的减排。     

长三角空气质量区域预报准确性评估方法研究

根据长三角空气质量区域预报工作的实际需要,对分区文字预报和落区图预报两种方式分别制定了不同的空气质量指数级别预报准确性评估方法。分区文字预报根据设定的预报准确性判定方法计算预报评分,落区图预报按区域内预报准确城市占比进行准确率统计。分区文字预报结果显示,2017年长三角区域的预报准确天数占比为62.2%,预报评分为70.2,区域预报评估效果良好。落区图预报评估结果显示,预报级别偏差具有地域性差异,安徽北部、江苏北部和江西中北部预报等级偏高,长三角中南部沿海城市预报等级偏低。该套评估方法可为区域空气质量预报偏差成因分析提供依据,为区域预报工作的改进提供定量参考。     

Evaluation of a population mobility,mortality, and birth surveillance system in South Kivu,Democratic Republic of the Congo

Prospective, community-based surveillance systems for measuring birth, death, and population movement rates may have advantages over the ‘gold-standard’ retrospective household survey in humanitarian contexts. A community-based, monthly surveillance system was established in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in partnership with a local implementing partner and the national ministry of health. Data were collected on the occurrence of births, deaths, arrivals, and departures over the course of one year, and a retrospective survey was conducted at the end of the period to validate the information. Discrepancies between the two approaches were resolved by a third visit to the households with discordant records. The study found that the surveillance system was superior in terms of its specificity and sensitivity in measuring crude mortality and birth rates as compared to the survey, demonstrating the method's potential to measure accurately important population-level health metrics in an insecure setting in a timely, community-acceptable manner.     

Eco-Environmental Degradation in the Source Region of the Yellow River, Northeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

The Yellow River is the second longest river in China and the cradle of the Chinese civilization. The source region of the Yellow River is the most important water holding area for the Yellow River, about 49.2% of the whole runoff comes from this region. However, for the special location, it is a region with most fragile eco-environment in China as well. Eco-environmental degradation in the source region of the Yellow River has been a very serious ecological and socially economic problem. According to census data, historical documents and climatic information, during the last half century, especially the last 30 years, great changes have taken place in the eco-environment of this region. Such changes are mainly manifested in the temporal-spatial changes of water environment, deglaciation, permafrost reduction, vegetation degeneracy and desertification extent, which led to land capacity decreasing and river disconnecting. At present, desertification of the region is showing an accelerating tendency. This paper analyzes the present status of eco-environment degradation in this region supported by GIS and RS, as well as field investigation and indoor analysis, based on knowledge, multi-source data is gathered and the classification is worked out, deals with their natural and anthropogenic causes, and points out that in the last half century the desertification and environmental degradation of this region are mainly attributed to human activities under the background of regional climate changes. To halt further degradation of the environment of this region, great efforts should be made to use land resources rationally, develop advantages animal agriculture and protect the natural grassland.