THE EFFECT OF DATA INDEPENDENCE IN MODEL CALIBRATION AND MODEL TESTING1

ABSTRACT: With the increased use of models in hydrologic design, there is an immediate need for a comprehensive comparison of hydrologic models, especially those intended for use at ungaged locations (i.e., where measured data are either not available or inadequate for model calibration). But some past comparisons of hydrologic models have used the same data base for both calibration and testing of the different models or implied that the results of model calibration are indicative of the accuracy at ungaged locations. This practice was examined using both the regression equation approach to peak discharge estimation and a unit hydrograph model that was intended for use in urban areas. The results suggested that the lack of data independence in the calibration and testing of regression equations may lead to both biased results and misleading statements about prediction accuracy. Additionally, although split-sample testing is recognized as desirable, the split-samples should be selected using a systematic-random sampling scheme, rather than random sampling, because random sampling with small samples may lead to a testing sample that is not representative of the population. A systematic-random sampling technique should lead to more valid conclusions about model reliability. For models like a unit hydrograph model, which are more complex and for which calibration is a more involved process, data independence is not as critical because the data fitting error variation is not as dominant as the error variation due to the calibration process and the inability of the model structure to conform with data variability.     

UNIT HYDROGRAPHS – A COMPARATIVE STUDY1

ABSTRACT. Unit hydrographs derived by using two methods, linear programming and least squares, are compared. Test data comprise rainfall and runoff information from four storms over the North Branch Potomac River near Cumberland, Maryland. The mathematical bases of these methods for unit-hydrograph derivation are explained. The linear programming method minimizes the sum of absolute deviations, and the least squares method minimizes the sum of the squares of deviations. Computer subroutines are readily available for application of these methods. The unit hydrographs derived with the two methods are practically the same for storms 2 and 3, but differ somewhat for storms 1 and 4. However, the reconstituted direct surface runoff hydrographs are similar to those observed with the exception of the hydrograph for storm 4 which had a relatively more non-uniform rainfall excess of a considerably larger duration.     

DECLINING POTENTIOMETRIC LEVELS IN FORT WALTON BEACH AREA,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: The Fort Walton Beach area is presently faced with an excessive drawdown of the potentiometric level in the upper Floridan aquifer. Based on available data, the potentiometric level in the Floridan aquifer has dropped 162 feet since 1936. This declining potentiometric level can lead to problems and possible loss of the natural resource on a long-term basis. However, if corrective measures or programs for proper management of groundwater resources are undertaken at this time, the potential problems may be averted.     

Fitting a Gamma Distribution Over a Synthetic Unit Hydrograph1

ABSTRACT: Several methods for synthetic unit hydrographs are available in the literature. Most of these methods involve the hand fitting of a curve over a set of a few hydrograph points, which can sometimes be a subjective task. Besides, the user often finds it difficult or simply neglects to adjust the generated unit graph to a runoff volume of one unit (inch, cm, or mm). It is the purpose of this paper to present to the design hydrologist a simple method to fit a smooth gamma distribution over a single point specified by the unit hydrograph peak and the time to peak with a guaranteed unit depth of runoff.     

电厂机组大修的安全管理及保障措施

针对电厂机组大(小)修中所遇到的安全管理方面的各种实际问题,提出了针对性强、可操作性强、实用有效的防范措施和管理方法.     

泄漏检测与维修技术在芳烃抽提装置的应用研究

采用泄漏检测与维修（ LDAR）技术进行了全面检测和统计分析，分析泄漏的原因并通过维修减少泄漏。结果表明：芳烃抽提装置容易泄漏的元件主要为连接件和阀门，主要分布在泵区；SV≥5000μmol／mol的泄漏密封点占总密封点数的0.57％，对总泄漏量的贡献达到了82％，是造成泄漏排放的主要部分。设备管阀件泄漏造成的加工损失率为0.0009％，泄漏点停工维修修复率为83％，停工维修后整体泄漏率为0.03％；VOCs减排率为71％。     

极端梯度提升与随机森林融合的天然气露点预测方法

目的 解决目前水露点数据多为人工采用测量仪器测得,时效性低且成本高昂的问题。方法 建立一种基于极端梯度提升(XGBoost)和随机森林(RF)的天然气水露点预测方法。采用XGBoost方法对所有监测工艺参数进行分析,筛选出主要影响水露点的关键工艺特征参数,以排除无关特征参数对预测的干扰。建立RF预测模型,输入关键特征集参数,实现对水露点的实时预测。以重庆气矿某脱水监测系统监测数据与生产数据为例,对所提预测方法进行对比分析验证。结果 相较于XGBoost、SVM等预测方法,RF模型具有最佳的预测性能,且经过XGBoost特征选择后,RF预测结果的MAE值降低了0.016 9 ℃,RMSE值降低了0.014 6 ℃。结论 基于极端梯度提升与随机森林融合的水露点预测方法具有更优的预测精度与鲁棒性,对指导脱水现场生产具有积极作用。     

关于区域可持续发展的系统分析

本文从更高、更新、更综合的高度和角度,对区域社会可持续发展系统进行了单元要素分析、结构层次分析。提出了三单元要素、三结构层次、三种发展类型的设想。这种分析尽管还是初步的、定性的、不很深刻的,但是为研究可持续发展系统提供了一种新的思路。     

SIL评估技术在柴油加氢装置的应用

介绍了安全仪表系统安全完整性等级(SIL)评估方法,并将SIL评估技术在柴油加氢装置进行应用,系统全面分析了装置安全仪表系统的可靠性,并提出合理可行的建议措施,对于提高装置安全稳定运行水平具有重要作用。     

泵设备机械密封泄漏事故防范技术探讨

分析了多起石化行业因果设备机械密封泄漏引发的重大火灾事故原因,研究表明:机械密封泄漏的诱发因素多是泵轴承严重故障后,机械密封过度磨损导致密封失效,使高温油料泄漏。为有效防范机械密封泄漏事故,提出防范措施:一是要加强泵轴承的监测,及时发现泵轴承存在的问题,避免泵轴承长期带病运行;二是要加强机泵组的联锁控制,当轴承出现严重故障后,能使机泵组及时停车,避免机械密封过度磨损导致泄漏。