FRACTIONAL DIFFERENCING MODELING IN HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Fractional differencing is a tool for modeling time series which have long-term dependence; i.e., series in which the correlation between distant observations, though small, is not negligible. Fractionally differenced ARIMA models are formed by permitting the differencing parameter d in the familiar Box-Jenkins ARIMA(p, d, q) models to take nonintegral values; they permit the simultaneous modeling of the long-term and short-term behavior of an observed time series. This paper discusses the usefulness of fractional differencing to time-series modeling, with emphasis on hydrologic applications. A methodology for fitting fractionally differenced ARIMA models is described, and examples are presented.     

MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF POLICY-RELEVANT SCIENCE: LESSONS FROM A WATER RESOURCE PROJECT1

ABSTRACT: Water resource scientists face complex tasks in evaluating aspects of water projects, but relatively few assessment procedures have been applied and accepted as standard applications. Decision-makers often rely on environmental assessments to evaluate the value and operation of projects. There is often confusion about scientists' role in policy decisions. The scientist can affect policy-making as an expert withess, an advocate or a surrogate. By understanding the policy process, scientists can make their work more “policy relevant.” Using the Terror Lake hydro project in Alaska as a guide, three lessons are discussed: (1) not all problems are able to be solved with technology; (2) policy-relevant technology is rarely imposed on a problem; and (3) the scientist need not just react to the policy process, but can have an impact on how that process unfolds.     

论区域环境规划与区域开发环境影响评价在区域开发环境管理中的作用和地位

回顾了国内外区域开发环境管理的发展历程，简要论述了区域环境规划与区域开发环境影响评价在区域开发环境管理中的作用和地位以及两者的相互关系。     

ECONOMIC RESOURCE MULTIPLIERS FOR REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Tradeoffs between regional economic development and resource use is a question often confronting local decisionmakers. A resource-interindustry model can be used to depict the interrelationships between regional economic sectors as to household income and/or employment and resource use. A resource-interindustry model was developed for Humboldt and Lander Counties in Nevada which shows the tradeoffs between regional household income (wages, salaries, profits, and rents) and/or employment and water usage. Water income and water employment multipliers can be ranked, enabling decisionmakers to realize sectors which require greatest regional water usage to regional household income and/or employment.     

普栉(鰕)虎鱼生物学研究及其资源开发对策

通过对普栉鰕虎鱼的生物学研究和资源现状分析，从做好资源评估，完善管理制度；加强水质监测，保护生态环境；改善繁殖场所，实现人工增殖；加强放流研究，实行规模生产等环节对其资源开发提出了可行性的对策，这对维护生物多样性，将地方特色资源优势持续、有效地转变为经济优势具有重要意义。     

矿产资源经济区划的理论与方法

矿产资源经济区划是保护与合理开发利用矿产资源、实现资源优化配置和区域经济可持续发展的基础。本文依据经典的区位理论和地域分工理论,应用系统分析的方法,建立了矿产资源经济区划的一般程序,并归纳了定量分析中必要的技术手段和方法路线。     

四川省区域经济不平衡发展特征分析

以地市州为基本经济单元,以1999年主要相对指标为依据,通过综合值测算法,将全省划分为四类经济发展水平不同的地区,对四类地区平均总量指标、相对指标进行了对比分析,并揭示了其空间分布特征,简要分析了各类地区经济发展的条件和方向;以1999年、1978年各地市州GDP为例,对比分析了四川省区域经济不平衡发展的动态性特征。     

区域性旱涝灾害序列的信息量及分维的研究

本文依据 C· E· Shannon的信息量概念 ,定义了旱涝灾害序列的信息量公式。以安徽省长江、淮河流域的旱 (涝 )灾害序列为例进行了研究 ,初步计算出相应的信息量、信息维 ,并得出如下结论 :1旱 (涝 )序列的信息量随时间是波动的、衰减的 ;2大旱 (大涝 )前信息量增加 ,信息维降低 ;3区域性旱 (涝 )序列的信息维一般在 0 .70～ 0 .90之间     

The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions

Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts. Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth. The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain. Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999     

"开放型"区域资源策略探析--以浙江省为例

本文从区域资源安全的内涵出发,以浙江省为研究对象,在分析了省域资源条件及供给现状的基础上,提出了构建“开放型”区域资源安全体系的总体思路。