对几种大气环境预测方法的评估

本文根据石家庄市的常规气象资料和混合层高度,用不同的计算模式和计算方法对本市特征污染因子SO_4的长期平均浓度进行计算,把计算结果与实测浓度比较并进行误差分析,对每种计算方法进行评价,最后讨论了各种计算方法的特点及在城市大气环境预测中的实用性.     

稀土元素对富营养化水体中藻类增长的影响

利用藻类生长潜力测试方法,在太湖五里湖区水样中分别添加不同浓度轻,中、重３种稀土元素、Ｇｄ（Ⅲ）、Ｙ（Ⅲ）与３种稀土混合物,研究稀土元素对富营养化水体中藻类增长的影响。     

Drivers of future streamflow changes in watersheds across the Northeastern United States

Accurate projections of streamflow, which have implications for flooding, water resources, hydropower, and ecosystems, are critical to climate change adaptation and require an understanding of streamflow sensitivity to climate drivers. The northeastern United States has experienced a dramatic increase in extreme precipitation over the past 25 years; however, the effects of these changes, as well as changes in other drivers of streamflow, remain unclear. Here, we use a random forest model forced with a regional climate model to examine historical and future streamflow dynamics of four watersheds across the Northeast. We find that streamflow in the cold season (November–May) is primarily driven by 3-day rainfall and antecedent wetness (Antecedent Precipitation Index) in three rainfall-dominant watersheds, and 30-day rainfall, antecedent wetness, and 30-day snowmelt in the fourth, more snowmelt-dominated watershed. In the warm season (June–October), streamflow is driven by antecedent wetness and rainfall in all watersheds. By the end of the century (2070–2099), cold season streamflow depends on the importance placed on snow in the machine learning model, with changes ranging from −7% (with snow) to +40% (without snow) in a single watershed. Simulated future warm season streamflow increases in two watersheds (56% and 193%) due to increased precipitation and antecedent soil wetness, but decreases in the other two watersheds (−6% and −27%) due to reduced precipitation.     

长三角区域一体化的环境治理效应评估——基于DID模型的实证研究

随着长三角一体化的范围不断扩大,融入区域一体化的城市不断增加,对区域城市环境协同治理提出了更高要求。本文采用2003—2019年中国225个地级以上城市面板数据,利用双重差分法评估长三角区域一体化对地区环境治理的影响和作用机制。研究发现长三角区域一体化能显著促进整体城市和原位城市的污染排放强度下降,但对新进城市的环境治理影响并不显著。长三角区域一体化对不同规模城市的环境治理效应没有显著差异;对非资源型城市和高行政等级城市的环境改善作用则优于资源型城市和低行政等级城市。进一步机制分析表明,长三角区域一体化带来污染排放强度整体下降,这一结果主要来自经济集聚效应和技术进步效应,来自产业结构升级的环境治理效应并不显著;同时,长三角区域一体化对环境治理具有显著的反向空间溢出效应,即在降低本地污染排放强度的同时,加大了周边城市污染排放强度。     

Analyzing the Variability of Remote Sensing and Hydrologic Model Evapotranspiration Products in a Watershed in Michigan

The goal of this paper was to statistically explore the spatiotemporal performance of remotely sensed actual evapotranspiration (ETa) datasets and a remotely sensed ensemble in a region that lacks observed data. The remotely sensed datasets were further compared with ETa results from a physically based hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to examine the differences and determine the level of agreement between the ETa datasets and the model outputs. ETa datasets were compared on temporal (i.e., monthly and seasonal basis) and spatial (i.e., landuse) scales at both watershed and subbasin levels. The results showed a lack of consistent similarities and differences among the datasets when evaluating the monthly ETa variations; however, the seasonal aggregated data presented more consistent similarities and differences during the spring and summer compared to the fall and winter. Meanwhile, spatial analysis of the datasets showed the MOD16A2 500 m ETa product was the most versatile of the tested datasets, being able to differentiate between landuses during all seasons. Furthermore, the use of an averaging ensemble was able to improve overall ETa performance in the study area. This study showed that the remotely sensed ETa products are not similar throughout the year, but the appropriate application periods for different ETa products were identified. Finally, spatial variabilities of the ETa products are more in tune with landuse and climate characteristics.     

基于偏离份额法的我国区域科技经费投入“来源—执行”结构分析

科技经费投入既应注重量的提升,又应关注科技经费投入结构的优化,在加大科技经费投入的同时积极优化投入结构是提高科技资源使用效率的途径。采用偏离份额分析法,从科技经费投入的＂来源—执行＂结构角度测算了我国八大经济区的科技经费投入结构,并从科技经费投入的增长效应、结构效应、竞争力三个方面进行分析,反映出区域科技经费投入发展的速度、动力机制和制度特征。     

区域环境承载力评价在区域环境影响评价中的应用

论述了区域环境影响评价的概念和特点,介绍了区域环境承载力的概念和指标体系,引入了区域环境承载力相对剩余率作为区域环境承载力的评价指标,并通过实例计算,给出了区域环境承载力相对剩余率的具体计算方法和在区域环境承载力评价方面的应用。通过单项环境承载力相对剩余率和综合环境承载力相对剩余率的计算,评价了某市的开发强度和剩余环境容量。     

区域低碳交通评价模型研究

在中国机动车快速增长的前提下,低碳交通运输是实现节能减排、发展低碳经济的重要组成部分。借鉴戴利的消费和福利绩效公式,基于导向性、数据可获性与可比性等基本原则,构建区域低碳交通评价指标体系,该体系包括低碳交通能效指标和低碳交通运营指标。基于灰关联分析法和模糊数学方法,建立区域低碳交通模糊评价模型。最后,对江苏2010年的低碳交通发展水平进行评价,结果表明,该年江苏低碳交通发展水平为"良",今后发展的重点在于大力发展城市轨道交通、积极开展低碳公路建设、开展碳税制度和优化公交体系等。     

基于GIS的新疆年降水量空间插值精度比较研究

以新疆具有完整资料的90个气象站点中的75个站点的基本地理信息和1995—2008年平均降水数据资料为基础,以ArcGIS为数据处理平台,分别采用反距离加权法、径向基函数法、普通克里格法、协克里格法对新疆降水空间分布进行插值,并通过没有参与插值的15个气象站点的实际降水量与插值结果进行相对误差分析。研究结果表明:在年降水量插值的4种算法中,普通克里格法(Kriging)的计算精度最高。利用最优的插值方法的栅格降水空间数据库建立的多年降水资源信息系统,可快速计算研究区内任一地域单元中降水的总量及其空间变化,对降水资源模拟、工程规划、发展战略及决策管理均具有重要的意义。     

Global climate change and regional sustainable development: the case of Mackenzie Basin in Canada

Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.