亿元GDP死亡率与区域发展水平的相关性分析

为探讨亿元GDP死亡率与区域发展水平之间的关系,选择能够反映区域整体发展水平,又与安全生产密切相关的影响因素,通过统计年鉴获取大量数据的基础上,从时间和空间2个维度,采用SPSS数据统计软件对亿元GDP死亡率和13个定量影响因素、5个定性影响因素之间的Spearman相关系数进行计算,排除区域发展水平的极度差异,在总体趋势上,亿元GDP死亡率与各相关因素的相关性在时间和空间2个维度上保持较好的一致性。计算结果表明,各地区可从提高经济发展水平、优化产业结构、大力发展科学教育事业、提高医疗卫生水平和健全法制体系等方面降低亿元GDP死亡率,改善当地的安全生产水平,该结论能为各区域控制亿元GDP死亡率,对安全生产进行宏观调控提供科学依据。     

区域滑坡灾害地形地貌因子敏感性分析研究

为分析地形地貌与滑坡敏感性之间的关系,借助地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析技术和滑坡影响因子贡献率的数学方法,研究雅安市雨城区坡度坡向对滑坡的影响程度的大小。通过研究得到了每一区间的坡度和坡向对滑坡的贡献率,定量地分析了坡度、坡向对研究区域的滑坡发育的关系。研究结果表明,坡度20～30°区间的区域为滑坡最敏感的区域,坡向带90～120°区间是滑坡灾害最敏感的区域,但坡向带每一区域的贡献率差别不大。     

产业结构视角下的新疆区域经济差异分解研究

区域经济差异与产业结构有着密切的联系.从三次产业结构的视角,运用加权变异系数对1995年以来新疆区域经济差异进行产业分解.研究发现,1995-2009年新疆第二、第三产业的加权变异系数明显高于人均GDP加权变异系数,对总体经济差异起着明显的"上拉"作用.通过三次产业对总体差异的贡献分析发现,第二产业差异对新疆总体经济差异的年均贡献率达73.5%,表明第二产业差异是造成新疆总体差异的关键因素,提出了缩小新疆区域经济差异的对策建议.     

近年来中国边境贸易研究的问题与发展趋势

自古以来,边境贸易是我国对外经济交流的主要方式.近年来对我国边境研究较多,主要集中在我国边境贸易发展的历史总结、政策规范、边境贸易与区域经发展等方面,但对边境贸易与边境安全、边境贸易过程中跨境民族问题和我国边境贸易的优势等方面的研究较少.随着研究的不断深入,针对边境贸易出现了边境地区当地居民参与边境贸易过程、边境贸易与大尺度区域经济发展、"区位论"视角下的边境贸易等新动向.     

基于协调度与熵权法的绩效评价新方法

自人们意识到绩效评价的重要性以来,越来越多的研究集中于绩效评价的方法。以往的绩效评价侧重用数字表象进行评价,而忽略了政府、企业系统及其与社会经济发展之间的特性。基于此,根据既有的信息熵理论研究成果,提出了协调度与熵权法复合评价模型,并运用该模型对2009年度河北省区域创新绩效进行了实证分析,既科学、全面地衡量绩效情况,又便于政府、企业及其与社会经济发展之间的系统分析,是一种绩效评价方法的创新,具有一定的普适性和通用性。     

Exposure to Methyl Methacrylate and Its Subjective Symptoms Among Dental Technicians,Tehran, Iran

Exposure to methyl methacrylate (MMA), total dust and health symptoms were investigated in 20 dental laboratories located in Tehran, Iran. Time-weighted average (TWA) of MMA and peak concentrations were determined, using XAD-2 tubes followed by GC-ID analysis. Total dusts were evaluated gravimetrically. Health symptoms were asked using a questionnaire. TWA for technicians with direct and indirect exposure to MMA were 327.28 ± 79.42 and 282.9 ± 41.84 mg/m³ , respectively. Peak concentration of MMA for those technicians were 337.0 ± 36.81 and 328.88 ± 45.40 mg/m³, respectively.

There were no significant differences between TWA of MMA and peak concentration in different weekly workdays; however, within-day variations were observed (P < .05).

TWA of MMA and peak concentration correlation with the laboratory volume were 0.61-0.65. Dust exposure of technicians was 2.35 ± 2.70 mg/m³. Cough and skin dryness were the common health symptoms. Smoking and asbestos exposure history were factors influencing cough prevalence (p < .05).

It is concluded that the current Short-Term Exposure Limit (STEL) is not low enough to protect technicians against the adverse effects caused by MMA.     

Estimation of Daily Streamflow of Southeastern Coastal Plain Watersheds by Combining Estimated Magnitude and Sequence

Commonly used methods to predict streamflow at ungauged watersheds implicitly predict streamflow magnitude and temporal sequence concurrently. An alternative approach that has not been fully explored is the conceptualization of streamflow as a composite of two separable components of magnitude and sequence, where each component is estimated separately and then combined. Magnitude is modeled using the flow duration curve (FDC), whereas sequence is modeled by transferring streamflow sequence of gauged watershed(s). This study tests the applicability of the approach on watersheds ranging in size from about 25‐7,226 km² in Southeastern Coastal Plain (U.S.) with substantial surface storage of wetlands. A 19‐point regionalized FDC is developed to estimate streamflow magnitude using the three most selected variables (drainage area, hydrologic soil index, and maximum 24‐h precipitation with a recurrence interval of 100 years) by a greedy‐heuristic search process. The results of validation on four watersheds (Trent River, North Carolina: 02092500; Satilla River, Georgia: 02226500; Black River, South Carolina: 02136000; and Coosawhatchie River, South Carolina: 02176500) yielded Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.86‐0.98 for the predicted magnitude and 0.09‐0.84 for the predicted daily streamflow over a simulation period of 1960‐2010. The prediction accuracy of the method on two headwater watersheds at Santee Experimental Forest in coastal South Carolina was weak, but comparable to simulations by MIKE‐SHE.     

Informal network utilisation and water distribution in two districts in the Khorezm Province,Uzbekistan

This paper analyses informal networks and their utilisation during a period of water scarcity in an upstream and a downstream district in the Khorezm Province, Uzbekistan. The evaluation is based on an organisational theory approach on informal networks. Communication patterns between farm managers, district water departments and district governors in a year with a sufficient amount of water and in a year of water scarcity are compared with informal network structures. The analysis shows that in the year of water scarcity an informal network was utilised to receive water. The importance of the informal network increased with increasing experience and individual perception of water scarcity. The findings confirm the assumption that informal networks are utilised more frequently when formal networks fail or are not functional. The case study therefore confirms the importance of an informal network during a crisis.     

Between municipal and regional planning: the development of regional district heating systems in Stockholm from 1978 to 2010

District heating (DH) is an important part of the Swedish energy system and one of the most important climate measures at the municipal level. The Swedish planning system gives a large amount of power to municipalities, thus leaving the regional level weak. Despite this, the DH systems in Stockholm have developed into regional systems; how has this development occurred and what made it possible? Regional and municipal strategies concerning DH and energy from 1978 to 2010 have been studied through Regional plans and comprehensive plans. The conclusions show that the municipal DH systems have grown and become interconnected, thus fulfilling one of the most important regional strategies: to expand and interconnect the systems to be able to build combined heat and power plants. This is not entirely due to the regional strategies, however; the local importance of the system, economic reasons and supply security are other explanations. The study shows that regional importance generally has grown, and thus also the regional focus on DH. As environmental and climate issues have risen on the agenda, the importance of DH from the municipal perspective has become more evident, as well as a shift from supply orientation to more focus on energy efficiency.     

算术平均值及其分布

平均值和标准偏差是误差理论和数理统计理论中的两个核心问题.平均值的计算方法虽然简单,但是,它的内涵却并不是十分简单.本文以通俗的语言对平均值的本质作了深入浅出的介绍.