化工重大危险源区域风险因素的评价与控制

化工事故具有危及社区和环境的特性,评价并有效地控制化工企业区域风险因素是政府安全监管部门的工作重点。针对国家安监总局提出的10项区域风险因素,运用德尔菲法确定了评价因子的权重,提出了区域风险因素评价值的计算模型;以常州市武进区化工企业为例进行了化工企业区域风险因素定量分析,运用休哈特控制图法找出了需要重点监管的企业及其风险因素。     

基于沿江开发建设的生态安全格局研究——以九江市为例

随着长江沿江开发的不断深入,区域生态安全与开发建设的矛盾也越来越突出。以九江市沿江开发建设活动与区域生态系统空间结构、生态服务功能相互作用为理念,通过遥感、GIS技术手段,划分小流域单元。并将这些单元作为空间分析与评价的基础,选择工业集中区、城镇居民地、路网布局作为自然生态环境的影响因子或施压因子,以河流级别、湖泊数量和面积、地貌类型、坡度、植被覆盖程度、重要生态功能区类别等作为承压因子,综合叠加形成生态环境压力区划。并以此为基础,构建由5个生态源区和9条生态隔离、缓冲、生物多样性保护廊道组成的生态空间安全体系,用以减缓生态环境压力、消纳水气及土壤污染、稳定区域生态、推进沿江开发建设,实现生态保护空间与区域经济社会发展空间的有序融合,并对重要生态功能保护区提出管制的要求与措施。     

Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis on Regional Economic Disparity of Northeast Economic Region in China

Popular regional inequality indexes such as variation coefficient and Gini coefficient can only reveal overall inequality, and have limited ability in revealing spatial dependence or spatial agglomeration. Recently some methods of exploratory spatial data analysis such as spatial autocorrelation have provided effective tools to analyze spatial agglomeration and cluster, which can reveal the pattern of regional inequality. This article attempts to use spatial autocorrelation at county level to get refined spatial pattern of regional disparity in Chinese northeast economic region over 2000-2006 （2001 absent）. The result indicates that the basic trend of regional economy is an increasing concentration of growth among counties in northeast economic region, and there are two geographical clusters of poorer counties including the counties in western Liaoning Province and adjacent counties in Inner Mongolia, poorer counties of Heihe, Qiqihar and Suihua in Heilongjiang Province. This article also reveals that we can use the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis as the supplementary analysis methods in regional economic analysis.     

好氧膜-生物反应器中微滤膜选择的实验研究

用扫描电镜表面观察和全自动压汞仪测定了2种亲水化改性PVDF微滤膜的平均孔径、孔隙率等基本性能参数。对2种膜的纯水通量,及其平板膜组件在好氧膜生物反应器内污染过程进行分析。结果显示,2种膜污染过程均呈现先缓慢后快速的"二阶段"趋势,第二阶段是膜污染的主导阶段。尽管平均孔径小、孔隙率高的膜本身阻力大、纯水通量低,但其污染速率较低,物理及化学清洗恢复率较高。膜孔径及孔隙率指标是影响其在MBR中运行的污染速率的主要因素,平均孔径小、孔隙率高的膜抗污染能力强。     

Development and Comparison of Multiple Regression Models to Predict Bankfull Channel Dimensions for Use in Hydrologic Models

Channel dimensions are important input variables for many hydrologic models. As measurements of channel geometry are not available in most watersheds, they are often predicted using bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships. This study aims at improving existing equations that relate bankfull width, depth, and cross‐sectional area to drainage area (DA) without limiting their use to well‐gauged watersheds. We included seven additional variables in the equations that can be derived from data that are generally required by hydrologic models anyway and conducted several multiple regression analyses to identify the ideal combination of additional variables for nationwide and regional models for each Physiographic Division of the United States (U.S.). Results indicate that including the additional variables in the regression equations generally improves predictions considerably. The selection of relevant variables varies by Physiographic Division, but average annual precipitation (PCP) and temperature (TMP) were generally found to improve the models the most. Therefore, we recommend using regression equations with three independent variables (DA, PCP, and TMP) to predict bankfull channel dimensions for hydrologic models. Furthermore, we recommend using the regional equations for watersheds within regions from which data were used for model development, whereas in all other parts of the U.S. and the rest of the world, the nationwide equations should be given preference.     

基于时变参数模型的中国区域碳排放权价格调控机制研究

区域碳排放权价格的差异制约了中国全国性碳市场的建立,亟需寻求价格调控方式。本文通过Phillips and Sul模型分析了北京、深圳、上海等碳排放权价格收敛性,结果显示单纯市场作用无法形成统一价格,进而运用状态空间方法构建时变参变量模型,从能源价格、经济发展和政策制度等角度,分析了碳排放权价格差异的影响因素组成结构,提出了价格调控机制。认为降低焦炭价格、减缓经济发展速度、提升交易市场活跃程度以及加大违约处罚力度,是缩小中国区域碳排放权价格差异,形成统一价格的有效调控方式,为建立和完善中国统一的碳排放权交易体系提供了决策支持。     

电力发展对中国经济增长的影响及其区域差异

1990年以来,随着中国电力体制改革的深入,电力基础设施与经济同步发展。由于电力生产与电力消费存在着显著的空间差异,电力发展对经济增长的影响可能存在空间差异。本文利用1990—2011年省级面板数据,基于增长回归模型,采用动态面板分析方法,以电力投资率和发电装机容量作为衡量电力发展的指标,检验电力发展对经济增长的影响以及这种影响的区域间差异。实证研究的主要发现如下:首先,电力发展对经济增长有显著的正面影响,而且其长期影响明显高于短期影响。其中,电力投资率每增加1个百分点,短期经济增长率提高0.076个百分点,长期经济增长率提高0.493个百分点;发电装机容量每增加1个百分点,短期经济增长率提高0.381个百分点,长期经济增长率提高1.905个百分点。其次,电力发展对经济增长的影响具有显著的地区差异,对东部地区的经济增长影响显著高于西部地区。其中,电力投资率增加1个百分点对东部地区的经济增长率影响高于西部地区达0.913个百分点;电力装机容量增加1个百分点对东部地区的经济增长率影响高于西部地区达0.959个百分点。实证结果表明,电力发展对各地区经济增长影响是不平衡的,这种影响对区域经济协调发展起到了负面作用。基于实证研究,给出如下政策建议:首先,考虑到中国经济在未来20年中仍将保持较高增速,中国应继续促进电力发展投资,以促进经济增长。其次,从政策导向来看,电力发展政策应当充分加强电力发展对区域协调发展的作用,使得西部地区能从电力输出中获得更高收益,提高电力发展对区域经济增长影响的公平性。     

On the Regional Coordinated Development Between Tourism Human Resource and Tourism Industry in China

Tourism is one of the typical labor intensive industries and tourism human resource(HR) is the main factor for regional discrepancy of tourism industry.The paper takes China as research region and evaluates the level of tourism HR and the level of tourism industry of 31 provinces respectively.First,the paper constructs evaluation index of regional tourism industry and tourism HR.Then,the paper gets the evaluation scores of every province by applying the principal components analysis and statistical package for the social sciences processing.Second,the paper builds the tourism development-tourism HR matrix and divides the matrix into four quadrants.Finally,the paper points out the problems of tourism HR that exist in the 31 provinces and puts forward development strategy.     

Determinants on Rural-Urban Labor Migration in China： Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Rural Cooperate Medical Insurance based on Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Data

This paper studies factors influencing rural-urban labor migration in China,particularly the implementation of rural cooperative medical insurance(RCMI) in the year 2003.With the support of data analysis from the year 2000,2004 and 2006,clear linear correlations are found between gender,income,health condition and rural-urban labor flow,whereas the impact of education and employment status are more complicated.More importantly,results from regression show that the establishment of RCMI in countryside of China not only inhibits rural residents from seeking employment outside the village,but also pulls back rural people who have already worked in cities.When regional dimension is concerned,the pure composite effect of RCMI on rural labor flow is less significant in coastal areas with better economic performance and medical service.     

高精度区域气候模式对淮河流域降水的模拟评估

利用CCLM（COSMO model in Climate Mode）高精度区域气候模式输出的淮河流域逐日降水数据,计算了年降水量、降水强度、大雨日数和强降水量4个降水指数,首先通过与1961～2010年流域内气象站点的降水观测数据进行对比,检验CCLM模式对淮河流域降水的模拟能力。结果表明,CCLM模式能够很好的模拟淮河流域降水的年际变化和空间分布特征,在4个降水指数中,对年降水量的模拟效果最佳。CCLM模式在SRES-A1B（中排放）情景下的降水预估数据显示,2011～2050年淮河流域降水整体将呈增加趋势,增幅在70 mm之内,降水量年际变率较大,波动范围达-40%～60%,很有可能造成未来旱涝灾害的频繁发生。空间分布上,流域南部和中部在未来40年内降水呈增加趋势,增幅不超过67%,其他区域则呈减少趋势,减幅不超过106%