A MULTIOBJECTIVE MODEL FOR REGIONAL WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Linear programming is the simplest of all the optimization techniques used in regional water quality management studies; but the technique can optimize only one goal. When there are multiple goals with the same or different priorities, goal programming is a useful decisionmaking tool. This paper illustrates the application of goal programming to a regional water quality management problem where the following two goals are considered: (1) minimize the total cost of waste treatment, and (2) maintain the water quality goals (dissolved oxygen) close to the minimum level stated in the stream standards.     

THE EFFECT OF DATA INDEPENDENCE IN MODEL CALIBRATION AND MODEL TESTING1

ABSTRACT: With the increased use of models in hydrologic design, there is an immediate need for a comprehensive comparison of hydrologic models, especially those intended for use at ungaged locations (i.e., where measured data are either not available or inadequate for model calibration). But some past comparisons of hydrologic models have used the same data base for both calibration and testing of the different models or implied that the results of model calibration are indicative of the accuracy at ungaged locations. This practice was examined using both the regression equation approach to peak discharge estimation and a unit hydrograph model that was intended for use in urban areas. The results suggested that the lack of data independence in the calibration and testing of regression equations may lead to both biased results and misleading statements about prediction accuracy. Additionally, although split-sample testing is recognized as desirable, the split-samples should be selected using a systematic-random sampling scheme, rather than random sampling, because random sampling with small samples may lead to a testing sample that is not representative of the population. A systematic-random sampling technique should lead to more valid conclusions about model reliability. For models like a unit hydrograph model, which are more complex and for which calibration is a more involved process, data independence is not as critical because the data fitting error variation is not as dominant as the error variation due to the calibration process and the inability of the model structure to conform with data variability.     

MANY RESOURCES,MANY USES: A SYSTEM ANALYSIS APPROACH TO RENEWABLE RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: Decisionmaking associated with the Nation's 1.7 billion acres of forest and range land has become increasingly complicated because of the rise in competition for resource use and in the awareness of environmental and social effects. This system analysis approach uses four models to synthesize pertinent masses of information into measures of economic, environmental, and social impacts. The system results can be used to help evaluate alternative national programs. The models are:

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OPTIMAL RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AND CROP PLANNING UNDER DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC INFLOWS1

ABSTRACT: This study analyzes planning under deterministic and stochastic inflows for the Mayurakshi project in India. Models are developed to indicate the optimal storage of reservoir water, the transfer of water to the producing regions, and the spillage of water from the reservoir, if needed. A deterministic programming model was first formulated to represent the existing situation. A chance-constrained model then was constructed to evaluate potential violations of the deterministic model. Both models were quantified for the command area. Data were collected from surveys of the area and from government agencies. Both the deterministic and change-constrained models suggest a more intensive cropping program in the region. Both emphasize more dependence on rabi and less on kharif crops. The chance-constrained especially suggests use of more water in the rabi season. Important chances in cropping programs and labor use take place under the chance-constrained model.     

WATER MULTIPLIERS - REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS1

A significant research problem is the assessment of impacts associated with growth and/or decline in a regional economy. A relevant method for analyzing such problems is the Leontief input/output model. Associated with these models are economic multipliers measuring total changes in sales, income, and employment. In this paper, the author contends resource multipliers are equally relevant. The specific form of these multipliers are defined. Water multipliers for a two-county region in central Nevada are presented and their uses described.     

COMPARISON OF TWO AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY STREAM FLOW GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two autoregressive models for monthly stream flow generation are compared based on the reproduction of the historical record in terms of several important statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, skewness coefficient, correlation coefficient, and the reservoir storage components. In the comparison, both theoretical considerations and practical applications are employed to evaluate the performance of each model.     

STOCHASTIC MODELING OF MONTHLY AND DAILY RAINFALL SEQUENCES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly model and two daily models (I and II) are presented for the purpose of generating monthly and daily rainfall sequences in the Quae Yai river basin in Thailand. Performance of the models are evaluated by comparing the statistical parameters of the generated sequences with those from historical data. For monthly generation, Thomas-Fiering model worked satisfactorily in spite of the monthly correlations being weak, if any. Daily Model I, which assumes no persistence between daily rainfall amounts within the wet spells, could not preserve some important parameters regardless of the simplicity in model construction. Application of multi-state transition probability matrix model gave good results, although the user has to modify some parameters looking at the performance of the model for each historical record.     

Energy analysis and the coupling of man and estuaries

New concepts and insights concerning human and natural systems in the coastal zone are emerging from recent energy analysis and synthesis studies. By using new concepts for measuring the quality of energy, one can express the work of ecosystems and human economies in equivalent terms. From energy models and new energy quality evaluations, one can learn what kinds of coastal systems maximize power, are competitive, economically vital, and likely to have a survival advantage.Energy analysis and synthesis is aided by energy circuit diagrams. Models of the coastal zone that emphasize the change in external driving functions related to world energy sources provide insights and some predictive abilities that are not found in economic studies, since money flows alone do not evaluate external driving energies.This paper suggests four procedures for coastal planning: 1) calculation of investment ratio in units of equal quality to determine which projects are economic in a broad sense, 2) development of energy signatures for coastal ecosystems, 3) determination of which interface ecosystems develop the best energy flows, and 4) development of regional models that include the main features of human and natural ecosystems.     

COMPARING METHODS OF HYDROLOGIC REGIONALIZATION1

ABSTRACT: Data splitting is used to compare methods of determining “homogeneous” hydrologic regions. The methods compared use cluster analysis based on similarity of hydrologic characteristics or similarity of characteristics of a stream's drainage basin. Data for 221 stations in Arizona are used to show that the methods, which are a modification of DeCoursey's scheme for defining regions, improve the fit of estimation data to the model, but that is is necessary to have an independent measure of predictive accuracy, such as that provided by data splitting, to demonstrate improved predictive accuracy. The methods used the complete linkage algorithm for cluster analysis and computed weighted average estimates of hydrologic characteristics at ungaged sites.