Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest

Environmental and societal factors such asair quality, water quality andavailability, land use changes andexpanding urbanization are alreadyaffecting human health and welfare,agriculture, and natural ecosystems in theMidwestern United States. Over thiscentury, these existing stresses willlikely be exacerbated by climate changesresulting from human activities. It isessential that policy decisions aimed atpreserving the well-being of a region beinformed by a good understanding of theregion's climate, how climate might change,and the uncertainties inherent in futureprojections. Recent updates in climatemodeling expertise and an expanded view ofpossible non-intervention emissionscenarios have narrowed the range of changethat can be expected over the Midwestthroughout the next century in some ways,while broadening it in others. In contrastto previous studies, which generallyconsider a mid-range scenario for futureemissions, this study presents the range ofchange that would result from low to highscenarios for climate change. In this waywe account for uncertainties inanthropogenic forcing on climate change inthe region and quantify the potentialeffects of human actions on future climate.This analysis also combines the latestclimate model projections with historicalrecords of observed climate over the pastcentury, effectively placing potentialchanges in extreme event frequencies suchas heavy rainfall events and temperaturethreshold exceedances within the context ofobserved variability over the past century.The purpose of this study is to provide anupdated picture of the potential impacts ofclimate change on the Midwest to inform theimpact assessment and policy developmentcommunity. From the magnitude of thechanges projected by this study, it isclear that these must be included in futurepolicy decisions in order to ensure thesuccessful adaptation and survival ofexisting human and natural systems in theMidwest.     

内蒙古河套灌区面源污染防治初步设想

本文分析了内蒙古河套灌区面源污染现状及其成因，并从政策、管理、技术上提出了相应的防治初步设想。     

Community richness and stability in agricultural landscapes: The importance of surrounding habitats

In this paper, the role played by habitat diversity in the landscape on species richness and on the stability of farmland bird communities was investigated. Species richness was estimated on 374 samples monitored in farmland by the French breeding bird survey during the 2001–2005 period. A capture–recapture approach was used to estimate species richness accounting for the variation in detection probability among species of the 100 most common species detected in farmland. Landscape structure and composition were measured both in farmland and in adjacent habitats. The independent effect of each variable on community richness and stability was further assessed using hierarchical variance partitioning and taking spatial autocorrelation into account. A strong matrix effect was detected: non-cropped land deeply influenced richness and stability of bird assemblages.     

Estimating baseline carbon emissions for the Eastern Panama Canal watershed

To participate in the potential market for carbon credits based on changes in the use and management of the land, one needs to identify opportunities and implement land-use based emissions reductions or sequestration projects. A key requirement of land-based carbon (C) projects is that any activity developed for generating C benefits must be additional to business-as-usual. A rule-based model was developed and used that estimates changes in land-use and subsequent carbon emissions over the next twenty years using the Eastern Panama Canal Watershed (EPCW) as a case study. These projections of changes in C stocks serve as a baseline to identify where opportunities exist for implementing projects to generate potential C credits and to position Panama to be able to participate in the emerging C market by developing a baseline under scenarios of business-as-usual and new-road development. The projections show that the highest percent change in land use for the new-road scenario compared to the business-as-usual scenario is for urban areas, and the greatest cause of C emission is from deforestation. Thus, the most effective way to reduce C emissions to the atmosphere in the EPCW is by reducing deforestation. In addition to affecting C emissions, reducing deforestation would also protect the soil and water resources of the EPCW. Yet, under the current framework of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), only credits arising from reforestation are allowed, which after 20 years of plantation establishment are not enough to offset the C emissions from the ongoing, albeit small, rate of deforestation in the EPCW. The study demonstrates the value of spatial regional projections of changes in land cover and C stocks: The approach helps a country identify its potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission liabilities into the future and provides opportunity for the country to plan alternative development pathways. It could be used by potential project developers to identify which types of projects will generate the largest C benefits and provide the needed baseline against which a project is then evaluated. Spatial baselines, such as those presented here, can be used by governments to help identify development goals. The development of such a baseline, and its expansion to other vulnerable areas, well positions Panama to respond to the future market demand for C offsets. It is useful to compare the projected change in land cover under the business-as-usual scenario to the goals set by Law 21 for the year 2020. Suggested next steps for analysis includeusing the modeling approach to exploreland-use, C dynamics and management ofsecondary forests and plantations, soilC gains or losses, sources ofvariability in the land use and Cstock projections, and other ecologicalimplications and feedbacks resulting fromprojected changes in land cover.     

河流水质1号模型探讨

介绍了河流水质模型70年来的发展历程和目前存在的不足之处,论述了河流水质1号模型(RwQM1)的研究成果.河流水质1号模型从活性污泥模型ASM中发展而来,并推出了建立模型的决策化方法,其对生化反应模型的完善而成为河流水质模型发展的一个标准平台.本文重点介绍了其在生化反应模型方面的进展,并和QUAL2E做了比较.     

水资源开发利用与区域经济协调管理的一种交互式模式

本文据大系统多级递阶优化控制理论，将水资源系统分解成地面水资源系统与地下水资源系统。在地面水系统中，给出了多目标开发利用管理模型；在地下水系统中，提出了地下水资源开发利用经济管理模型。区域经济涉及区域内的各种工农业和城镇生活用水部门──用水系统。对该用水系统提出了分解──协调优化管理模型。据水资源开发利用和用水系统的特点，在最高级设置总协调器来协调水资源开发利用系统与用水系统，进而提出了水资源开发利用与区域经济协调管理的一种交互式模式。     

水环境非点源污染模型研究

随着工业污染源的有效控制,非点源污染已经成为我国重要污染类型之一,如何科学地认识并有效控制非点源污染已成为研究课题.在此介绍了非点源的基础工具--非点源模型的主要类型、结构和特点,并对目前主要的非点源模型进行了比较分析,探讨了非点源模型发展的趋势.     

Conserving Slow-Growing, Long-Lived Tree Species: Input from the Demography of a Rare Understory Conifer, Taxus floridana

Abstract:  Although land preservation and promotion of successful regeneration are important conservation actions, their ability to increase population growth rates of slow-growing, long-lived trees is limited. We investigated the demography of Taxus floridana Nutt., a rare understory conifer, in three populations in different ravine forests spanning its entire geographic range along the Apalachicola River Bluffs in northern Florida (U.S.A.). We examined spatial and temporal patterns in demographic parameters and projected population growth rates by using four years of data on the recruitment and survival of seedlings and established stems, and on diameter growth from cross-sections of dead stems. All populations experienced a roughly 10-fold increase in seedling recruitment in 1996 compared with other years. The fates of seedlings and stems between 8 and 16 mm differed among populations. The fates of stems in two other size classes (the 2- to 4-mm class and the 4- to 8-mm class) differed among both populations and years. Individual stems in all populations exhibited similarly slow growth rates. Stochastic matrix models projected declines in all populations. Stochastic matrix analysis revealed the high elasticity of a measure of stochastic population growth rate to perturbations in the stasis of large reproductive stems for all populations. Additional analyses also indicated that occasional episodes of high recruitment do not greatly affect population growth rates. Conservation efforts directed at long-lived, slow-growing rare plants like Taxus floridana should both protect established reproductive individuals and further enhance survival of individuals in other life-history stages, such as juveniles, that often do not appear to contribute greatly to population growth rates.     

Super-individuals a simple solution for modelling large populations on an individual basis

Modelling populations on an individual-by-individual basis has proven to be a fruitful approach. Many complex patterns that are observed on the population level have been shown to arise from simple interactions between individuals. However, a major problem with these models is that the typically large number of individuals needed requires impractically large computation times. The common solution, reduction of the number of individuals in the model, can lead to loss of variation, irregular dynamics, and large sensitivity to the value of random generator seeds. As a solution to these problems, we propose to add an extra variable feature to each model individual, namely the number of real individuals it actually represents. This approach allows zooming from a real individual-by-individual model to a cohort representation or ultimately an all-animals-are-equal view without changing the model formulation. Therefore, the super-individual concept offers easy possibilities to check whether the observed behaviour is an artifact of following a limited number of individuals or of lumping individuals, and also to verify whether individual variability is indeed an essential ingredient for the observed behaviour. In addition the approach offers arbitrarily large computational advantages. As an example the super-individual approach is applied to a generic model of the dynamics of a size-distributed consumer cohort as well as to an elaborate applied simulation model of the recruitment of striped bass.     

天津市医疗废物处置规划及策略研究

以天津市医疗废物管理现状为研究对象,对处置方式进行深入探讨,分析目前分散处置和集中处置存在的缺陷,提出"区域集中处置"设想;并运用模糊决策模型理论,建立较完善的处置方式评价指标体系,应用模糊综合评价模型得出"区域集中处置"是最佳的医疗废物处置方式,同时提出了相应的区域集中处置策略.