MODELING GROUND WATER FLOW USING FLUX BOUNDARY CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: Determination of the boundary conditions for modeling ground water flow is a critical point especially in regional models. Normally the regional models require model areas that are greater than the given area of interest. This work focuses on the prediction of hydraulic heads in regional models using flux boundary conditions. The model uses flux boundary conditions that were estimated using a radial flow analog and Darcy's law. The regional model that is presented uses no parameter identification (inverse estimation) procedures. In the present work, the Houston area was used. The simulation of the hydrological conditions of the Chicot and Evangeline Aquifers that underlie the Houston area were made using the available information about the geological profile in the Houston region and the current information about the existing production wells. The regional model works as a forward problem. The system parameters such as hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and hydrological stresses were specified, and the model predicts the hydraulic head. Actual data from piezometers operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in many places throughout Houston were used as initial conditions. Some piezometric head data were generated using the regional variable theory called kriging to supply head estimates in areas where data were unavailable. The Modular Three Dimensional Finite Difference Groundwater Flow Model developed by the USGS was used to predict the hydraulic heads. The predicted ground water heads are compared to the actual data. The results show that the model performs well for locations where data were available.     

ESTIMATION OF COASTAL WATER CONTAMINATION LONG-TERM TREND USING SEASONAL LINEAR MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Bivalves are used as bioindicators to assess trends of the chemical quality of coastal and marine environments due to their ability to concentrate chemicals. These shellfish are subject to seasonal physiological changes influencing the chemical concentration. Using quarterly data, we model concentration via linear regression with a biologically based seasonal component. This was applied to cadmium concentration measured in the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) at three sites in the Seine estuary (Normandy, France). In this case we have a high concentration season from January to June and a “low concentration” season from July to December. This season definition was checked a posteriori, using box-and-whisker plots and a statistical test of comparison of pair-wise adjusted least-squares mean differences, and it appears to be very reasonable. We averaged data by season and across sites. Our final model (R²= 0.846 with N= 27 observations) includes highly significant terms: a season effect, which accounts for 45% of the total variability, a linear and a quadratic time term. Outliers were identified by high Studentized residual values and attributed to bias in the temporal sampling schemes. The methodology developed will further be used with other shellfish and/or other trace elements and organic chemicals.     

长江三角洲农业发展的地域差异研究

长江三角洲地处以上海为中心的经济发展区,是我国经济实力最强、产业规模最大的三角洲,具有良好的自然、社会、人文和区位条件,农业发展水平居全国前列。但是经济发展和高密度人口也给农业进一步发展带来沉重的压力,人地矛盾和人粮矛盾加剧严重危害了长江三角洲农业的可持续发展,同时全区农业发展水平受到自然、经济和历史因素的影响,存在较大的地域差异。从长江三角洲农业发展的地域差异出发,选取与农业发展密切相关的经济、     

试论江苏省国土资源与区域可持续发展

国土资源是区域可持续发展的基础,国土资源的合理开发利用是区域持发展的必由之路。首先详细地分析了江苏国土资源的优势条件,然后着重阐述了江苏国土资源的劣势,指出 一个资源约束型省份人地关系紧张、气候灾害频敏、环境问题突出已严重制约着区域的可持续发展;最后,根据江苏省情,对江苏可持续发展提出如下建议;加强对地理区位的开发和利用,促进力的合理布局,严格控制人口增长,努力提高人口素质,严格保护耕地,高效利用     

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES USING THE WOLLMAN-BONEM MODELS1

Alternative futures are defined to be mutually consistent alternative combinations of assumed sets of future conditions. Alternative futures are employed in conjunction with the Wollman-Bonem model to project future water use. The model solutions under different alternative futures provide an indication of the direction and relative magnitude of changes in water use, both in quantity and quality, that may result from changes in policy-influenced variables, technology, and other data. The Wollman-Bonem model is employed in this paper as a tool to illustrate the alternative futures concept. The model can best be cast as an economic model. The model solutions are not given as a set of formal projections, but as various possible water-use-over-time curves. This should aid in disspelling the erroneous idea that it is possible to make distant projections of water use as a single curve. Multiple curves suggest that water use is really a function of many variables.     

EFFECTS OF THE TOPOGRAPHIC INDEX DISTRIBUTION ON PREDICTED RUNOFF USING GRASS1

ABSTRACT: The effects of digital elevation model resolutions and contour lengths on the distribution of the topographic index, a fundamental parameter for the hydrologic model, TOPMODEL, and their influence on the predicted peak flows are investigated in this paper. A small agricultural catchment (3.38 km²) is used to determine the catchment response modeled by TOPMODEL for three rainfall events.     

MASS BALANCE MODEL ESTIMATION OF PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Mass balance models have been common tools in lake quality management for some years. However, verification for use on reservoirs, especially in the Western United States, has been seriously lacking, In this study, such a verification is attempted using data from the U.S EPA National Eutrophication Survey. Several models from the literature are compared for accuracy in application to the western reservoir data. Model standard error and correlation between estimated and observed reservoir phosphorus concentrations are the Criteria used for comparison. Standard errors am further used to calculate uncertainty of trophic state classification based on estimated phosphorus concentration. The model proposed by Dillon and Rigler (1974) proved most accurate, with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 and standard error of 0.2, based on logarithmic transformed values. Deficiencies in the other models appear to & from coefficients fit to lake data and from inappropriate model formulation.     

PROBLEMS IN FORECASTING WATER REQUIREMENTS1

ABSTRACT. Methodological problems associated with forecasting water requirements by use of regression analysis are examined. Problems occurring when long-range forecasts are based on linear and nonlinear extrapolation of time series models include possible changes in socioeconomic conditions, water allocation system structure, and limits to growth. Problems arising in forecasting based on multiple regression models are likely to involve serially dependent errors, multicollinear explanatory variables, and difficulties inherent to the presence of explanatory variables that must themselves be predicted.     

A REVIEW ON DECISION MODELS IN ECONOMICS OF REGIONAL WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT The literature on decision models in economics of regional water quality management is reviewed and classified.     

Environmental problem-solving and land-use management: A proposed structure for Australia

A three-tiered structure of land-use and environmental management is here proposed for Australia. The structure is based on the idea that environment means the environment of people, and that environmental problems arise when a change in the interaction between people and their environment leads to conflicts about the use of land and resources. The heterogeneity of society means that a range of human aspirations and value systems must be satisfied by environmental managers. Existing methods of environmental management fail to achieve these objectives, due to inadequate perception of environmental problems by decision-makers, and the inability of currently available impact assessment techniques to resolve human conflicts associated with the use of land and resources. The main work of planning and managing land use and the environment would be carried out by regional authorities, supported by federal and state policy. Examples are given of moves towards regional administration in England and Wales, Western Australia, Australia and New Zealand. Community participation in the decision-making process is essential and can be achieved by electoral representation to the authoritative bodies and through procedures that ensure informed public comment on planning proposals.