事故预测数学模型的研究与实践

依据收集统计的、真实可靠的事故数据,运用数学方法及建立的多种事故预测模型,在工作中理论与实际相结合,提出并建立了事故预测数学模型,给出具体方法与步骤,以及应用中应遵循的原则和规律,从而做到对将来发生的事故未卜先知,用以指导安全生产活动,预防事故发生。同时,根据我国近18年来各类事故死亡人员的数据建立事故预测数学模型,并运用确立的最佳事故预测数学模型而预测出的事故数据,探讨我国伤亡事故发生的趋势。     

A Comparison of Statistical Approaches for Predicting Stream Temperatures Across Heterogeneous Landscapes1

Abstract: Estimating stream temperatures across broad spatial extents is important for regional conservation of running waters. Although statistical models can be useful in this endeavor, little information exists to aid in the selection of a particular statistical approach. Our objective was to compare the accuracy of ordinary least‐squares multiple linear regression, generalized additive modeling, ordinary kriging, and linear mixed modeling (LMM) using July mean stream temperatures in Michigan and Wisconsin. Although LMM using low‐rank thin‐plate smoothing splines to measure the spatial autocorrelation in stream temperatures was the most accurate modeling approach; overall, there were only slight differences in prediction accuracy among the evaluated approaches. This suggests that managers and researchers can select a stream temperature modeling approach that meets their level of expertise without sacrificing substantial amounts of prediction accuracy. The most accurate models for Michigan and Wisconsin had root mean square errors of 2.0‐2.3°C, suggesting that only relatively coarse predictions can be produced from landscape‐based statistical models at regional scales. Explaining substantially more variability in stream temperatures likely will require the collection of finer‐scale hydrologic and physiographic data, which may be cost prohibitive for monitoring and assessing stream temperatures at regional scales.     

区域环境承载力评价在区域环境影响评价中的应用

论述了区域环境影响评价的概念和特点,介绍了区域环境承载力的概念和指标体系,引入了区域环境承载力相对剩余率作为区域环境承载力的评价指标,并通过实例计算,给出了区域环境承载力相对剩余率的具体计算方法和在区域环境承载力评价方面的应用。通过单项环境承载力相对剩余率和综合环境承载力相对剩余率的计算,评价了某市的开发强度和剩余环境容量。     

区域低碳交通评价模型研究

在中国机动车快速增长的前提下,低碳交通运输是实现节能减排、发展低碳经济的重要组成部分。借鉴戴利的消费和福利绩效公式,基于导向性、数据可获性与可比性等基本原则,构建区域低碳交通评价指标体系,该体系包括低碳交通能效指标和低碳交通运营指标。基于灰关联分析法和模糊数学方法,建立区域低碳交通模糊评价模型。最后,对江苏2010年的低碳交通发展水平进行评价,结果表明,该年江苏低碳交通发展水平为"良",今后发展的重点在于大力发展城市轨道交通、积极开展低碳公路建设、开展碳税制度和优化公交体系等。     

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Simulations on the Effect of Rough Surface on Atmospheric Turbulence Flow Above Hilly Terrain Shapes

The behavioral distribution of the atmospheric turbulence flow over the terrain with changes in a rough surface has become one of the most important topics of air pollution research, among such other topics as transportation and dispersion pollutants. In this study, a computational model on atmospheric turbulence flow over a terrain hill shaped with rough surface was investigated under neutral atmospheric conditions. The flow was assumed to be 2D and modeled using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models, which were numerically solved using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Rough surface conditions were modeled using a number of windbreak fences regularly spaced on the hill. The mean velocity and turbulent structures such as turbulence intensity and turbulent kinetic energy were investigated in the upwind and downwind regions over the hill, and the numerical models were validated against the wind-tunnel results to optimize the turbulence model. The computational results agreed well with the results obtained from the wind tunnel experiments. The computational results indicate that the mean velocity was observed to increase dramatically around the crest of the upwind slope of the hill. A thick internal boundary layer was observed with a fence on the crest and downwind region of the hill. The reversed flow and recirculation zone were formed in the wake region behind the hill. It was thus determined that turbulent kinetic energy decreases as the mean velocity increases.     

On the concept of sustainability – assessing the sustainability of large public infrastructure investment projects

Assessing the sustainability of large public investment projects within the general framework of three-pillar thinking is a complex affair. Such ventures involve multiple actors – e.g. planners from various disciplines such as engineers, economists and social scientists, in addition to politicians, users and other people affected – each carrying with them particular agendas and priorities, and corresponding understandings of the concept of sustainability. In this paper, we propose to frame the concept of sustainability assessment within the context of investment projects, in order to enable communication between the multiple actors, to assess different impacts of an investment project against one another in a meaningful way and, ultimately, to enhance the commensurability of investment project alternatives. Our main idea is that there exist different levels according to which the assessment of sustainability ought to refer – operational, tactical and strategic – and that properly addressing these levels can permit the different actors to comprehend one another, and thereby allow for more clarity and positive action.     

Numerical Investigation of the Effects of Boundary-Layer Evolution on the Predictions of Ozone and the Efficacy of Emission Control Options in the Northeastern United States

This paper examines the effects of two different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes – Blackadar and Gayno–Seaman – on the predicted ozone (O₃) concentration fields using the MM5 (Version 3.3) meteorological model and the MODELS-3 photochemical model. The meteorological fields obtained from the two boundary-layer schemes have been used to drive the photochemical model to simulate O₃ concentrations in the northeastern United States for a three-day O₃ episodic period. In addition to large differences in the predicted O₃ levels at individual grid cells, the simulated daily maximum 1-h O₃ concentrations appear at different regions of the modeling domain in these simulations, due to the differences in the vertical exchange formulations in these two PBL schemes. Using process analysis, we compared the differences between the different simulations in terms of the relative importance of chemical and physical processes to O₃ formation and destruction over the diurnal cycle. Finally, examination of the photochemical model's response to reductions in emissions reveals that the choice of equally valid boundary-layer parameterizations can significantly influence the efficacy of emission control strategies.     

核素示踪法研究农耕地土壤侵蚀的定量模型及其评价

应用137Cs示踪技术估算农耕地土壤侵蚀量的定量模型主要有两类径流小区上建立的经验关系式及各种理论模型.文章主要对各种主要模型作了简要介绍,并对各种模型的优点、局限性进行了比较和评价;指出今后在模型的建立和应用中注意的问题.     

英国CRTN道路交通噪声预测模型在中国的适用性研究

基于道路交通噪声990 h监测数据,对英国CRTN模型中源强计算模型在中国的适用性进行了验证。试验结果表明,理论计算与实测结果之间平均仅相差0.57 dB（A）,CRTN源强预测模型在中国可以可靠地预测道路交通噪声。     

Global Grids from Recursive Diamond Subdivisions of the Surface of an Octahedron or Icosahedron

In recent years a number of methods have been developed for subdividing the surface of the earth to meet the needs of applications in dynamic modeling, survey sampling, and information storage and display. One set of methods uses the surfaces of Platonic solids, or regular polyhedra, as approximations to the surface of the earth. Diamond partitions are similar to recursive subdivisions of the triangular faces of either the octahedron or icosahedron. This method views the surface as either four (octahedron) or ten (icosahedron) tessellated diamonds, where each diamond is composed of two adjacent triangular faces of the figure. The method allows for a recursive partition on each diamond, creating nested sub-dimaonds, that is implementable as a quadtree, including the provision for a Peano or Morton type coding system for addressing the hierarchical pattern of diamonds and their neighborhoods, and for linearizing storage. Furthermore, diamond partitions, in an aperture-4 hierarchy, provide direct access through the addressing system to the aperture-4 hierarchy of hexagons developed on the figure. Diamond partitions provide a nested hierarchy of grid cells for applications that require nesting and diamond cells have radial symmetry for those that require this property. Finally, diamond partitions can be cross-referenced with hierarchical triangle partitions used in other methods.