Accident modelling and analysis in process industries

Accident modelling is a methodology used to relate the causes and effects of events that lead to accidents. This modelling effectively seeks to answer two main questions: (i) Why does an accident occur, and (ii) How does it occur. This paper presents a review of accident models that have been developed for the chemical process industry with in-depth analyses of a class of models known as dynamic sequential accident models (DSAMs). DSAMs are sequential models with a systematic procedure to utilise precursor data to estimate the posterior risk profile quantitatively. DSAM also offers updates on the failure probabilities of accident barriers and the prediction of future end states. Following a close scrutiny of these methodologies, several limitations are noted and discussed, and based on these insights, future work is suggested to enhance and improve this category of models further.     

基于时间序列MODIS数据的贵州省森林物候地域分异

森林物候是气候与环境变化的重要指示器,对于陆地植被生态环境监测具有重要的意义。以2011～2013年的MODIS NDVI(归一化植被指数)为时间序列数据,采用Savizky-Golay(S-G)滤波平滑和动态阀值法,提取出贵州省2012年森林物候的生长起始日期(SOS)、生长结束日期(EOS)、生长季长度(LOS)和生长季振幅(AOS)4个参数,分别将提取的森林物候参数与经度、纬度和海拔做相关性分析。研究结果显示:(1)贵州省森林物候参数与纬度相关性整体较弱,因此贵州省森林物候纬度地带性地域分异的不显著;(2)贵州省森林物候生长起始期、生长季长度与经度呈极显著相关,而森林物候生长结束期与经度呈低度相关,整体上贵州省森林物候参数海陆(经度)地带性地域分异显著;(3)贵州省森林物候生长起始期、生长结束期与海拔呈显著相关,而森林物候生长季长度与海拔呈极显著相关,因此贵州省森林物候参数垂直(海拔)地带性地域分异的十分显著。     

Linking China’s emissions trading pilot schemes

All seven emissions trading pilots in China operate independently. One challenge facing most of them is the low inclusion thresholds for enterprises and the few total covered emissions, which negatively influences the effects of the emissions trading systems (ETSs). Some pilot sites, such as Guangdong, Hubei, Tianjin and Beijing, have indicated their willingness to link their schemes with others. ETS linking could expand scheme coverages and therefore help to reduce the overall costs of achieving the linked schemes’ emissions control targets. Linking could also help to address the issues of carbon leakage and reduce price fluctuations. The potential benefits and feasibility of linking different pilot systems are analyzed in this article. The seven pilot regions are at different stages of social and economic development, with significant differences in total emissions and emissions structures as well as carbon abatement potentials and costs. Through linking, more-developed regions such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, which are typically considered to face higher mitigation costs, will have the opportunity to achieve their emissions control targets by purchasing carbon units from less-developed regions, which will earn financial revenues from selling the units. To realize this win-win result, a series of policy and technical barriers at both the central government and pilot government levels needs to be overcome. Establishing a unified national emissions trading market would appear to be the ideal solution to these challenges, but it will take considerable time and will not be the short-term solution. In the absence of a unified national scheme, it is recommended that the central government encourage pilot schemes to link, that it develops corresponding national policies to support the linking efforts and that the pilot schemes that are intended to be linked coordinate on certain design elements. Based on the coordinating need, the major elements of an ETS can be divided into four categories: elements that need mutual recognition (cap setting and allowance allocation methods); elements that should be completely identical (compliance mechanisms, price containment measures, banking and borrowing rules, and offset mechanisms); technical elements that are preferably identical and easy to coordinate (MRV standards, technical registry standards); and elements that require no coordination (coverages and scopes).     

Modelling fertility: an application of count regression models

Often the lifecycle data occur as count of the vital events and are recorded as integers. The purpose of this article is to model the fertility behavior based on religious, educational, economic, and occupational characteristics. The responses of classified groups according to these determinants are examined for significant influence on fertility using Poisson regression model (PRM) based on the National Family Health Survey -3 dataset. The observed and predicted probabilities under PRM indicate modal value of two children for the Poisson distribution modeled data. Presence of dominance of two child in the data motivates the authors to adopt multinomial regression model (MRM) in order to link fertility with various socioeconomic indicators responsible for fertility variation. Choice of the explanatory factors is limited to the availability of data. Trends and patterns of preference for birth counts suggest that religion, caste, wealth, female education, and occupation are the dominant factors shaping the observed birth process. Empirical analysis suggests that both the models used in the study perform similarly on the sample data. However, fitting of MRM by taking birth count of two as comparison category shows improved Akaike information criterion and consistent Akaike information criterion values. Current work contributes to the existing literature as it attempts to provide more insight into the determinants of Indian fertility using Poisson and MRM.     

气候变化对中国夏季臭氧影响

气象条件对近地层臭氧(O₃)的生成有重要影响.为了探讨未来气候变化如何影响中国不同地区的O₃浓度,本研究将全球耦合模式比较计划CMIP5提供的CESM地球系统模式的气候预测数据作为WRF区域气象模式的初始边界条件,降尺度模拟了3种代表情景(RCP4.5、 RCP6.0和RCP8.5)下的未来2046～2055年夏季气候变化情况,并驱动CMAQ区域空气质量模式模拟气候变化对O₃的影响.结果表明,气候变化使中国夏季边界层高度、温度均值和高温天数增加,相对湿度有所降低,近地面风速无明显变化.在气象要素的共同影响下,O₃浓度在京津冀、四川和华南等地区呈现增加趋势,O₃每日最大8 h滑动平均(MDA8)极值在不同情景下增幅为：RCP8.5(0.7μg·m^-3)>RCP6.0(0.3μg·m^-3)>RCP4.5(0.2μg·m^-3).夏季MDA8超标日变化与高温天数变化有较为相似的分布,MDA8超标的发生与高温天...     

环境模型在风险评估中的应用

环境模型方法是化学品风险评估中经常使用的方法。环境模型可提供化学品的浓度、归趋和主要迁移转化途径等信息,目前已被广泛应用于各类环境系统中。本文对该方法使用的一般步骤进行介绍,并对我国的环境模型工作提出了几点建议。     

基于多层线性模型的铝合金大气腐蚀规律研究

目的 针对不同地区铝合金大气腐蚀差异性和样本数据利用不充分的问题,构建精度更高的铝合金大气腐蚀模型,研究铝合金在不同环境中的大气腐蚀规律。方法 基于多层线性模型,构建具备层次结构的腐蚀率模型。以某型号铝合金腐蚀数据为研究对象,逐步建立零模型、随机系数回归模型、完整模型探究大气腐蚀规律,并进行预测评估。结果 通过交叉验证进行模型评估,多层线性模型(MSE=0.001 3)优于幂函数回归(MSE=0.005 5),远优于线性回归(MSE=0.031 6),模型预测精度提升。多层线性模型能有效分解总方差,增强了模型的可解释性。结论 多层线性模型有效结合铝合金腐蚀数据区域差异性特征,能表征大气腐蚀规律,具有一定的实用价值。     

济南市背景区域大气PM2.5污染特征及其对能见度的影响

为研究背景地区大气PM_(2. 5)化学组分季节变化特征及对能见度的影响,本研究于2016年春、夏、秋、冬在济南市七星台采集大气PM_(2. 5)样品,分析其中水溶性离子组分及OC、EC的污染特征并研究其区域传输贡献.结果表明,NH_4~+、SO_4~(2-)和NO_3~-三者之和占年均离子总浓度的90. 24%,二次生成的水溶性无机离子污染较为严重. NO_3~-/SO_4~(2-)呈现出明显的冬高夏低的季节性变化特征.各季节的SO_4~(2-)和NH_4~+主要以(NH4)2SO4结合的形式存在. SOC/OC的范围是21. 17%～54. 21%,表明该地区存在较为严重的二次有机污染.四季SOR值均大于0. 1,显示本区域四季均有SO_4~(2-)的二次生成,四季NOR的值均高于SOR,可知NO2的二次转化强于SO2的二次转化.大气消光系数(Bext)的范围是172. 68～320. 61 Mm-1,年均值为256. 48Mm-1,大气消光系数呈现明显的夏低冬高的季节性趋势.后推气流轨迹显示七星台地区春、夏季主要受长距离传输和海洋源的影响,秋、冬季主要受局地源的影响.对比2008年济南市大气PM_(2. 5)污染特征研究,结果显示机动车对大气环境影响显著提升.     

Revealing photon transmission in an ultraviolet reactor: Advanced approaches for measuring fluence rate distribution in water for model validation

Fluence rate (FR) distribution (optical field) is of great significance in the optimal design of ultraviolet (UV) reactors for disinfection or oxidation processes in water treatment. Since the 1970s, various simulation models have been developed, which can be combined with computational fluidic dynamic software to calculate the fluence delivered in a UV reactor. These models strive for experimental validation and further improvement, which is a major challenge for UV technology in water treatment. Herein, a review of the simulation models of the FR distribution in a UV reactor and the applications of the current main experimental measurement approaches including conventional flat-type UV detector, spherical actinometer, and micro-fluorescent silica detector (MFSD), is presented. Moreover, FR distributions in a UV reactor are compared between various simulation models and MFSD measurements. In addition, the main influential factors on the FR distribution, including inner-wall reflection, refraction and shadowing effects of adjacent lamps, and turbidity effect are discussed, which is helpful for improving the accuracy of the simulation models and avoiding dark regions in the reactor design. This paper provides an overview on the simulation models and measurement approaches for the FR distribution, which is helpful for the model selection in fluence calculations and gives high confidence on the optimal design of UV reactors in regard to present methods.     

新安江流域横向生态补偿的经济效应

以新安江流域横向生态补偿试点作为准自然实验,采用2001~2017年中国安徽和浙江省内县域面板数据,利用双重差分方法（DID）定量研究了试点政策对流域上下游地区经济发展的影响及可能机制.结果显示：试点政策对上游地区的经济发展造成了一定程度的抑制影响,表现为相关地区的人均GDP或地区GDP出现了下降,而对流域下游地区经济发展并无显著作用,这一结论在进行多项稳健性检验后仍然成立;新安江试点政策对上游地区经济发展的负面影响呈现出了“先增强后减弱”的动态变化规律;此外,机制分析显示5个试点县内规模以上工业企业个数显著下降,表明“企业退出”是新安江试点政策对上游地区经济发展造成负面影响的重要原因.本研究可为后续制定和实施跨地区水资源保护的利益调配机制提供依据.