山区资源开发的一些经验

本文分析了山区贫困的一般原因。讨论了山区有效资源不足和“单向流失”现象与山区贫困化的关系,并列举了山区工作中的历史失误。本文总结了一些地区采用“长短结合、以短养长”的发展战略,开发优势资源所取得的成功经验,并提出了区域经济、社会、生态协同发展的目标。     

基于ESDA-GIS的黑龙江省区域经济差异研究

文章以黑龙江省81个县(市、区)为基本空间单元,在ArcView GIS软件和GeoDA空间统计分析软件的支持下,利用2009年黑龙江省县域人均GDP数据,对黑龙江省县域经济差异进行分析,分析结果表明:黑龙江省2009年总体经济差异较大,经济重心、人口重心和几何中心均有较大偏移,总体上黑龙江省2009年经济空间差异较大;全局Moran’s I指数为0.387 6,空间自相关特性明显,经济发展水平相似的地区在空间上集中分布。在此基础上绘制了局域Moran’s I散点图和LISA集聚图,并采用空间插值获得局域I值分异图。     

沈阳市苏家屯区区域噪声管理措施探讨

统计2002年至2006年沈阳市苏家屯区区域噪声、功能区噪声、噪声源单位状况,对苏家屯区区域噪声污染现状进行分析,找出目前沈阳市苏家屯区对居民生活影响严重的几类区域噪声及噪声污染最严重的噪声来源。分析了苏家屯区几年来噪声治理及管理中存在的问题,并针对噪声管理存在的问题提出更加合理的噪声管理措施。     

A SEMI-DISTRIBUTED ADAPTIVE MODEL FOR REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: A semi-distributed deterministic model for real-time flood forecasting in large basins is proposed. Variability of rainfall and losses in space is preserved and the effective rainfall-direct runoff model segment based on the Clark procedure is incorporated. The distribution of losses in space is assumed proportional to rainfall intensity and their evolution in time is represented by the φ-index; furthermore, an initial period without production of effective rainfall is considered. The first estimation of losses and the associated forecasts of flow are performed at the time corresponding to the first rise observed in the hydrograph. Then the forecasts of flow are corrected at each subsequent time step through the updating of the φ-index. The model was tested by using rainfall-runoff events observed on two Italian basins and the predictions of flow for lead times up to six hours agree reasonably well with the observations in each event. For example, for the coefficient of persistence, which compares the model forecasts with those generated by the no-model assumption, appreciable positive values were computed. In particular, for the larger basin with an area of 4,147 km², the mean values were 0.4, 0.4 and 0.5 for forecast lead times of two hours, four hours and six hours, respectively. Good performance of the model is also shown by a comparison of its flow predictions with those derived from a unit hydrograph based model     

SPNM,A MODEL FOR PREDICTING SEDIMENT,PHOSPHORUS, AND NITROGEN YIELDS FROM AGRICULTURAL BASINS1

ABSTRACT: A model called SPNM from the words “sediment-phosphorus-nitrogen model” was developed for simulating agricultural contributions to water pollution. SPNM is designed to predict sediment, P, and N yields for individual storms on small basins and to route these yields through streams and valleys of large basins. Users need no computer programming experience because the model is a problem-oriented computer language. SPNM is useful in planning water resources projects and in research. Tests of the model on a watershed provided realistic results.     

ASSESSMENT OF REMOTE SENSING INPUT TO HYDROLOGIC MODELS1

Remotely sensed variables such as land cover type and snow-cover extent can currently be used directly and effectively in a few specific hydrologic models. Regression models can also be developed using physiographic and snow-cover data to permit estimation of discharge characteristics over extended periods such as a season or year. Most models, however, are not of an appropriate design to readily accept as input the various types of remote sensing parameters that can be obtained now or in the future. Because this new technology has the potential for producing hydrologic data that has significant information content on an areal basis, both inexpensively and repetitively, effort should be devoted now to either modifying existing models or developing new models that can use these data. Minor modifications would at least allow the remote sensing data to be used in an ancillary way to update the model state variables, whereas major structural modifications or new models would permit direct input of the data through remote sensing compatible algorithms. Although current remote sensing inputs to hydrologic models employ only visible and near infrared data, model modification or development should accommodate microwave and thermal infrared data that will be more widely available in the future.     

亿元GDP死亡率与区域发展水平的相关性分析

为探讨亿元GDP死亡率与区域发展水平之间的关系,选择能够反映区域整体发展水平,又与安全生产密切相关的影响因素,通过统计年鉴获取大量数据的基础上,从时间和空间2个维度,采用SPSS数据统计软件对亿元GDP死亡率和13个定量影响因素、5个定性影响因素之间的Spearman相关系数进行计算,排除区域发展水平的极度差异,在总体趋势上,亿元GDP死亡率与各相关因素的相关性在时间和空间2个维度上保持较好的一致性.计算结果表明,各地区可从提高经济发展水平、优化产业结构、大力发展科学教育事业、提高医疗卫生水平和健全法制体系等方面降低亿元GDP死亡率,改善当地的安全生产水平,该结论能为各区域控制亿元GDP死亡率,对安全生产进行宏观调控提供科学依据.     

黄河三角洲地区总体开发战略研究

本文通过对黄河三角洲地区资源与经济状况的调查分析,从区域整体及其外部环境相互关系角度分析了黄河三角洲地区的战略地位、战略优势与问题、战略方向和战略措施,试图从理论和实践上为本区大规模开发建设提供科学依据。     

事故预测数学模型的研究与实践

依据收集统计的、真实可靠的事故数据,运用数学方法及建立的多种事故预测模型,在工作中理论与实际相结合,提出并建立了事故预测数学模型,给出具体方法与步骤,以及应用中应遵循的原则和规律,从而做到对将来发生的事故未卜先知,用以指导安全生产活动,预防事故发生.同时,根据我国近18年来各类事故死亡人员的数据建立事故预测数学模型,并运用确立的最佳事故预测数学模型而预测出的事故数据,探讨我国伤亡事故发生的趋势.