前沿技术进步、技术效率和区域经济差距

采用1998-2009年中国30个省市的人均GDP与当年全国人均GDP的差值作为区域经济差距指标,运用核密度估计方法观察了我国区域经济差距的变动状况。从核密度图可知,我国区域经济呈现出收敛的态势;通过随机前沿模型从全要素生产率中分解出前沿技术进步和技术效率,利用1998-2009年28个省市的面板数据,检验了全要素生产率对区域经济差距的影响。实证结果显示,前沿技术进步能够显著的缩小区域经济差距,其中对于东部地区的效果较为显著,技术效率则能够扩大东部地区的经济差距,对于中部和西部地区的影响不显著。政策含义是缩小东部地区经济差距的主要途径是加大对科技创新领域的投入,加强对欠发达地区的技术支持;对于中部地区和西部地区而言,则应该是加大市场化水平、对外开放水平和地方支出比重。     

基于目标责任区际优化的耕地保护补偿

耕地保护目标责任与区域补偿标准的合理确定是保证耕地保护区域补偿实施效果的关键。针对以往耕地保护目标责任忽视耕地资源禀赋与社会经济发展差异的不足,本文构建分区异步元胞自动机模型开展了耕地区际布局优化,并据此优化区域耕地保护目标责任。在此基础上,针对当前研究中耕地保护区域补偿标准与耕地非农化收益及耕地赤字/盈余水平脱节、难以真正起到耕地保护杠杆作用的不足,本文提出了以耕地资源价值为基础,引入耕地非农化收益确定耕地保护区域补偿标准,并根据耕地保护目标责任优化结果测算区域耕地赤字/盈余水平对耕地保护区域补偿价值标准进行修正,以实现"以布局引导补偿,以补偿实现保护"。以全国首批"两型社会"建设试验区武汉城市圈为案例区开展了实证研究,结果表明:1根据资源禀赋与经济发展区域差异确定区域耕地保护目标责任可以在实现全区域粮食安全的基础上使区域耕地非农化压力得到最大限度的释放,有利于耕地保护目标的实现;2以耕地非农化收益和耕地资源价值为基础,采用区域耕地赤字/盈余进行修正得到耕地保护区域补偿标准,可以起到激励耕地保护的杠杆作用;3基于目标责任区际优化的耕地保护区域补偿是协调我国快速城镇化进程中城镇用地扩张与耕地保护矛盾的重要途径,能起到激励耕地保护、抑制耕地非农化的作用。     

经济发达县域耕地土壤重金属污染评价及其影响因素分析——以江苏省昆山市为例

通过对昆山市14个区镇91个土壤样品中As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Pb、Ni、Hg、Zn 8种重金属测定分析,对该市耕地土壤重金属污染进行评价并进行重金属污染的影响因素分析.结果表明,昆山市耕地土壤存在不同程度的轻微污染,重金属Cd、Cr、Cu、Pb、Hg、Zn均超过国家土壤背景值,旱地、水田中均以Hg污染范围较广、变异系数较大.综合污染指数表现为水田(1.15)＞旱地(1.00).区镇耕地重金属污染评价表明千灯、陆扬、石浦、锦溪、石牌处于警戒值之内,蓬朗、周庄、张浦、正仪、周市、巴城、淀山湖、花桥、陆家轻度污染;昆山市耕地土壤中重金属元素均未超过土壤环境基本容量,能够保证作物品质和农业持续发展.同时,研究表明区域重金属轻微污染具有复合污染的特性,Cd、Pb相关性最高(P=0.621 0), Pb与Hg、Cu、Zn、Cu与Cr也有相关性(0.438 7、0.426 0、0.350 9、0.394 0),区域重金属的轻微污染受人为因素影响显著,研究指出应加强对区域优先控制污染物Hg、次优先控制污染物Pb、Cd、Zn、Cu、Cr的控制与治理.     

长三角地区城市土地利用集约度区域分异研究

土地短缺逐渐成为制约长三角地区经济迅速发展的关键要素。集约利用土地,不断提高城市土地利用效率,是解决长三角地区土地资源稀缺。缓解人地关系矛盾的必然选择。从土地利用强度．产出效率、生态效益、可持续利用程度四方面阐释城市土地利用集约度内涵．以此构建适合长三角地区城市土地利用集约度评价的指标体系,同时运用GIS空间分析方法与技术对评价结果进行空间分异研究。并分析差异产生原因。结果表明：①长三角地区城市土地利用集约度水平差距较大。区位条件和经济发展水平是影响长三角地区城市土地利用集约度的重要因素。②长三角地区城市土地利用集约程度由北向南呈现明显的空间梯度差异特征。在空闾分布上具有微弱的正相关性。空间分异格局明显。③各城市土地集约利用中存在的问题不尽相同,须予以针对性改善提高。     

环渤海临海区域经济发展态势与忧患

环渤海地区作为“十一五”期间国家优化开发的区域。经济发展日益呈现加速化、重工业化的总体趋势。探讨环渤海临海区域经济发展态势与忧患具有重要的现实意义。在对环渤海地区经济发展现状和特征分析的基础上．结合生产力布局向沿海地区推进的态势分析。深入剖析了地区经济发展面临的日益严重的渤海资源和生态环境问题——岸线利用缺乏合理性、区域产业结构布局不平衡、海域污染范围持续扩大等,并进一步提出缓解矛盾的对策建议,希望有助于环渤海地区经济的可持续发展,同时引起国家和地方政府对渤海生态安全的高度重视。     

Robustness of Meteorological Droughts in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Simulations

We examine the robustness of a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating meteorological droughts and associated metrics in present‐day climate (1971‐2003) over the conterminous United States (U.S.). The RCMs that are part of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulations are compared with multiple observations over the climatologically homogeneous regions of the U.S. The seasonal precipitation, climatology, drought attributes, and trends have been assessed. The reanalysis‐based multi‐model median RCM reasonably simulates observed statistical attributes of drought and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. However, models fail to simulate significant drying trend over the Southwest and West. Further, reanalysis‐based NARCCAP runs underestimate the observed drought frequency overall, with the exception of the Southwest; whereas they underestimate persistence in the drought‐affected areas over the Southwest and West‐North Central regions. However, global climate model‐driven NARCCAP ensembles tend to overestimate regional drought frequencies. Models exhibit considerable uncertainties while reproducing meteorological drought statistics, as evidenced by a general lack of agreement in the Hurst exponent, which in turn controls drought persistence. Water resources managers need to be aware of the limitations of current climate models, while regional climate modelers may want to fine‐tune their parameters to address impact‐relevant metrics.     

Impacts of Changes in Precipitation Amount and Distribution on Water Resources Studied Using a Model Rainwater Harvesting System

Water supply reliability is expected to be affected by both precipitation amount and distribution changes under recent and future climate change. We compare historical (1951‐2010) changes in annual‐mean and annual‐maximum daily precipitation in the global set of station observations from Global Historical Climatology Network and climate models from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI‐MIP), and develop the study to 2011‐2099 for model projections under high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). We develop a simple rainwater harvesting system (RWHS) model and drive it with observational and modeled precipitation. We study the changes in mean and maximum precipitation along with changes in the reliability of the model RWHS as tools to assess the impact of changes in precipitation amount and distribution on reliability of precipitation‐fed water supplies. Results show faster increase in observed maximum precipitation (10.14% per K global warming) than mean precipitation (7.64% per K), and increased reliability of the model RWHS driven by observed precipitation by an average of 0.2% per decade. The ISI‐MIP models show even faster increase in maximum precipitation compared to mean precipitation. However, they imply decreases in mean reliability, for an average 0.15% per decade. Compared to observations, climate models underestimate the increasing trends in mean and maximum precipitation and show the opposite direction of change in reliability of a model water supply system.     

近52年来洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时空分布特征

基于洞庭湖流域84个气象站点1962~2013年的逐日气象资料,利用综合干旱指数(CI)对洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时间和空间特征进行分析。结果表明:在过去52 a,区域性干旱强度较强的时段以夏季、秋季、夏秋和秋冬时节为主;区域干旱强度在春季、夏季、夏秋、冬季呈上升趋势;秋冬时节和年干旱强度变化不明显;春夏时节、夏秋时节、秋冬时节和冬春时节的平均干旱强度比春、夏、秋、冬单个季节的平均干旱强度大。小波分析表明,区域干旱强度的周期以10a为主周期,5 a和22 a为次周期。近52 a来,历年干旱站次比主要集中于10%~30%之间,多表现为区域性干旱,以夏季和秋季的干旱范围较大;干旱频率高发时期主要为夏季、夏秋时节和秋季。干旱频率高发地主要以流域的南部山地和北部的洞庭湖平原为主,西北部的山地发生干旱相对较少,衡邵盆地随季节变化干旱频率易发生高低值转换。     

Environmental implications of planned obsolescence and product lifetime: a literature review

The aim of this paper was to explore the implications of planned obsolescence (PO) and the associated product lifetime on the environmental impact of products. To achieve this task, a literature review was performed to assess both the historical context and recent situation of planned obsolescence. A search in scholarly journals was performed to evaluate to what extent product lifetime and PO have been discussed in the recent literature. Based on the findings, selected cases of PO are discussed and trends in the practice of limiting product lifetime are identified. Factors considered to have a significant influence on product lifetime have been identified and discussed. The discussion of case studies made it possible to establish the links between product design, manufacturing and associated impacts of lifetime. The role of the actors along the value chain is also considered to propose a business scheme, where the influences of consumer behaviour and design choices are crucial. Finally, strategies to facilitate the definition of different scenarios are given. These strategies may serve to increase the reliability of environmental assessment throughout a product life cycle.     

资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长:“资源诅咒”效应实证

针对"资源诅咒"研究中自然资源度量指标选取存在的科学性问题,利用资源产业空间集聚代替自然资源丰裕度和资源产业依赖度作为自然资源丰裕程度的解释变量。首先,在Krugman空间基尼系数的基础上,构建适用于测度资源产业空间集聚的计算公式,基于我国30个省(区、市)层面的数据,量化1999—2013年间资源产业的空间集聚程度,分析其排名情况和分布格局。研究显示:我国有15个省(区、市)存在资源产业空间集聚现象,这些地区大多位于长江以北,且均为自然资源富集地区。其次,构建经济增长计量模型,选取存在资源产业空间集聚现象的省(区、市)作为样本空间,并采用多种计量分析和检验方法考察资源产业空间集聚度与区域经济增长之间的直接和间接关系,分析"资源诅咒"的传导机制。研究显示:1在模型整体估计中,资源产业空间集聚的系数符号均为负,且在5%的水平上显著,说明资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长间的关系呈现负相关,符合"资源诅咒"的基本假设。2在模型分步估计中,人力资本投资、技术创新投入和制造业发展与区域经济增长正相关,符合经典经济增长理论的逻辑关系;物质资本投资与区域经济增长负相关,可能是由于当地经济主体的消费跨期替代弹性较小,导致物质资本投资对经济增长的直接增益效应小于其对社会人力资本积累的负向效应,进而阻碍区域经济增长;政府干涉程度越高越不利于经济增长。根据研究结果,建议应明确市场调节为主、政府调控为辅的导向机制,进一步提升资源产业空间集聚程度,强化行业人员素质与技术水平匹配,逐步提高自然资源生产和利用效率,从而实现加快地区经济转型,有效促进经济可持续发展的全面提升。