Probabilistic multiple model neural network based leak detection system: Experimental study

This paper presents an effective decision making system for leak detection based on multiple generalized linear models and clustering techniques. The training data for the proposed decision system is obtained by setting up an experimental pipeline fully operational distribution system. The system is also equipped with data logging for three variables; namely, inlet pressure, outlet pressure, and outlet flow. The experimental setup is designed such that multi-operational conditions of the distribution system, including multi pressure and multi flow can be obtained. We then statistically tested and showed that pressure and flow variables can be used as signature of leak under the designed multi-operational conditions. It is then shown that the detection of leakages based on the training and testing of the proposed multi model decision system with pre data clustering, under multi operational conditions produces better recognition rates in comparison to the training based on the single model approach. This decision system is then equipped with the estimation of confidence limits and a method is proposed for using these confidence limits for obtaining more robust leakage recognition results.     

Street canyon ventilation and atmospheric turbulence

Operational models for pollutant dispersion in urban areas require an estimate of the turbulent transfer between the street canyons and the overlying atmospheric flow. To date, the mechanisms that govern this process remain poorly understood. We have studied the mass exchange between a street canyon and the atmospheric flow above it by means of wind tunnel experiments. Fluid velocities were measured with a Particle Image Velocimetry system and passive scalar concentrations were measured using a Flame Ionisation Detector. The mass-transfer velocity between the canyon and the external flow has been estimated by measuring the cavity wash-out time. A two-box model, used to estimate the transfer velocity for varying dynamical conditions of the external flow, has been used to interpret the experimental data. This study sheds new light on the mechanisms which drive the ventilation of a street canyon and illustrates the influence of the external turbulence on the transfer process.     

Environment-specific elasticity and sensitivity analysis of the stochastic growth rate

For matrix population models, analyses of how sensitive the population growth rate is to changes in vital rates (i.e. perturbations) are important for studies of life history evolution as well as for management and conservation of threatened species. There are two types of sensitivity analyses corresponding to absolute (sensitivity) or relative (elasticity) changes in the vital rates and both types can be applied to both deterministic and stochastic matrix population models. To date, most empirical studies of elasticity and sensitivity of the stochastic growth rate have examined the response to perturbations in the vital rates in a complete set of possible environments. However, it is often of interest to examine the response to perturbations occurring in only a subset of the possible environments. This has been done for periodic time-varying models elsewhere, but here we describe a recently published method for calculating the environment-specific sensitivity and elasticity of the stochastic growth rate and apply this method to data. These environment-specific perturbation analyses provide a logical way of dividing the sensitivity and elasticity among the environments. They give important insight into the selection regime in different environments and can provide valuable information for making management decisions and management evaluations in stochastic environments.     

Uncertainty evaluation in air quality planning decisions: a case study for Northern Italy

In recent years, evaluating the robustness of environmental models results has become essential in order to effectively support decision makers to define suitable emission control strategies. This evaluation is performed in literature through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. Therefore, the application of such methodologies to air quality Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is extremely challenging. In fact, in this case uncertainty and sensitivity analyses should be assessed not only for each single component of the system, but also for the overall IAM. In the paper, an attempt is made to extend and systematize the information available on uncertainty/sensitivity analysis, at first considering environmental models in general, and then focusing on air quality IAMs. The study aims to offer a tentative framework addressed to modelers and decision makers in the implementation of IAM and evaluation of its results. The framework has been tested on Lombardy region (Northern Italy). The results show how the uncertainty on Drivers of emissions propagates on the whole modelling chain characterizing an integrated assessment study.     

论川南旅游资源的开发

本文对川南旅游开发的导向、人才与资金准备及产业协调等问题进行了探讨，提出了川南旅游资源地域开发的时空模式，建议加强重点景区的资源保护与开发建设，提倡生态旅游     

Effects of Harvest of Nontimber Forest Products and Ecological Differences between Sites on the Demography of African Mahogany

Abstract: The demographic impacts of harvesting nontimber forest products (NTFP) have been increasingly studied because of reports of potentially unsustainable harvest. Nevertheless, our understanding of how plant demographic response to harvest is altered by variation in ecological conditions, which is critical for developing realistic sustainable‐use plans, is limited. We built matrix population models to test whether and how variation in ecological conditions affects population responses to harvest. In particular, we examined the effect of bark and foliage harvest on the demography of populations of African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) in two contrasting ecological regions of Benin, West Africa. K. senegalensis bark and foliage harvest significantly reduced its stochastic population growth rates, but ecological differences between regions had a greater effect on population growth rates than did harvest. The effect of harvest on population growth rates (Δλ) was slightly stronger in the moist than in the drier region. Life‐table response experiments revealed that the mechanism by which harvesting reduced λ differed between ecological regions. Lowered stasis (persistence) of larger life stages lead to a reduction in λ in the drier region, whereas lowered growth of all life stages lowered λ in moist region. Potential strategies to increase population growth rates should include decreasing the proportion of individuals harvested, promoting harvester‐owned plantations of African mahogany, and increasing survival and growth by promoting no‐fire zones in gallery forests. Our results show how population responses to harvest of NTFP may be altered by ecological differences across sites and emphasize the importance of monitoring populations over the climatic range in which they occur to develop more realistic recommendations for conservation.     

Measuring impacts on species with models and metrics of varying ecological and computational complexity

Approaches to assess the impacts of landscape disturbance scenarios on species range from metrics based on patterns of occurrence or habitat to comprehensive models that explicitly include ecological processes. The choice of metrics and models affects how impacts are interpreted and conservation decisions. We explored the impacts of 3 realistic disturbance scenarios on 4 species with different ecological and taxonomic traits. We used progressively more complex models and metrics to evaluate relative impact and rank of scenarios on the species. Models ranged from species distribution models that relied on implicit assumptions about environmental factors and species presence to highly parameterized spatially explicit population models that explicitly included ecological processes and stochasticity. Metrics performed consistently in ranking different scenarios in order of severity primarily when variation in impact was driven by habitat amount. However, they differed in rank for cases where dispersal dynamics were critical in influencing metapopulation persistence. Impacts of scenarios on species with low dispersal ability were better characterized using models that explicitly captured these processes. Metapopulation capacity provided rank orders that most consistently correlated with those from highly parameterized and data-rich models and incorporated information about dispersal with little additional computational and data cost. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering species’ ecology, spatial configuration of habitat, and disturbance when choosing indicators of species persistence. We suggest using hybrid approaches that are a mixture of simple and complex models to improve multispecies assessments.     

Urban Land-Use Influences on Transport of Heavy Metals to Lakes and Concentrations in Fish

Water, Air, &; Soil Pollution: Focus - To investigate the urban land-useinfluences on transport of heavy metals to lakesand metal concentrations in fish liver (perch andcrucian carp), ten lakes...     

贵阳市二氧化硫和酸沉降污染来源及控制战略

采用一个综合区域空气质量/酸沉降模型,对典型气象条件下贵阳市、贵州省和整个西南地区不同尺度的SO₂控制情景进行模拟.数值模拟结果表明,贵州全省大点源排放是贵阳市酸沉降的最主要贡献者;贵阳市内的大电厂对贵阳市的SO₂污染有一定的贡献,但对硫酸盐浓度和酸沉降贡献则较小.在此基础上,提出了贵阳市酸沉降和SO₂污染的控制对策.      

循环经济发展的现状及主要模式

介绍了国内外发展循环经济的现状,提出发展循环经济的三种模式,即企业层面上的小循环模式,区域层面上的中循环模式和社会层面上的大循环模式。发展循环经济,建设循环型社会是当前经济发展与环境保护有机结合,转变经济增长方式,实现可持续发展的重要途径。