基于可靠性理论的区域大气环境质量风险评价模型探讨

为了用可靠性理论进行区域大气环境质量风险评价．从理论上研究了几个需要解决的基本问题。包括：明确区域环境质量风险评价的研究对象．确定区域环境质量可靠性的内涵,提出区域环境系统的“应力-强度-失效”假说．分析环境系统净化环节闻的串、并联关系。因此．从可靠性的视角,对区域环境质量的复杂性和不确定性进行新的探讨．构建环境科学与可靠性理论联系的桥梁。在理论分析的基础上．对福建省泉港区石化工业基地大气环境质量风险评价问题进行研究。从大气环境污染的主要问题出发。研究区域环境系统对大气污染物的净化环节及其串并联关系。在此基础上．构建区域大气环境污染的故障树,并以区域环境质量的可靠性作为评价指标对区域环境风险问题进行具体评价。这是一种以概率为基础的、新的区域环境质量风险评价模型．对于研究污染型工业系统的环境质量风险具有重要意义。     

A summary and synthesis of procedural regulations and standards—Informing a procedures writer's guide

Well-written procedures are an integral part of any industrial organization for safe operation, managing risks, and continuous improvement. Regulatory bodies around the world require industries to have current, accurate, and appropriate procedures for most processes. Although the importance of procedures is recognized by all industries in general, significant incidents still occur due to procedural breakdowns. Some of the procedural breakdowns come from obvious problems such as the procedure not being available or the procedure being wrong. However, some incidents have occurred when correct procedures were available and the operator used those procedures. In these instances, the reason workers do not follow procedures correctly may be attributable the procedure being presented or designed in a manner that does not sufficiently communicate the information in a manner that is easily and quickly understood. This indicates that procedure writers may need more guidance on how to write and design procedures so they accomplish this. To effectively manage risk, procedures need to be technically correct (and regulatory compliant) and usable. As part of this, the current work is focused on developing a systematic approach to a procedure writer's guide that includes a regulatory compliant component. The work presented here consists of an effort to identify procedure-writing practices necessary to ensure regulatory compliance by summarizing a large sample of regulations and standards from several industries. The regulations and standards were organized to reflect common ideas and the implications in terms of human factors needs for procedure design were identified. This information will be used as part of the development of a writer's guide that accounts for human factors (HF) that includes explanations of HF implications and empirical support for each of the guidelines. The novelty of the method and information presented here is in the idea of leveraging the cumulative information available regarding procedures in regulations and standards. Incorporating this information into a procedure's writers guide in this manner may not only facilitate procedure being regulatory compliant for facilities in different geographies of the world, but could also support their being written with considerations for human performance.     

环境监测工作要不断创新

如何说清区域环境质量状况,是一个摆在环境监测战线上工作人员面前的新课题。本文认真分析了当今环境监测工作中存在的问题,提出环境监测工作要随着形势的变化,与时俱进、开拓创新,开展区域环境质量的监测和评价工作,更好地为环境管理和经济建设服务。     

江苏沿江开发研究

随着中国加入WTO和经济全球化进程的加快,长江三角洲以其独特的滨江临海的区位和发达的制造业基础,正在成为新的投资热点地区。江苏省沿江地区是长江三角洲重要的组成部分,拥有800多km的长江岸线和8个经济发达、人才资源优势明显的经济中心城市。传统的制造业基础和相对低廉的加工成本、商务成本,使江苏沿江开发既有对外来资本的吸引力,又有自我发展的内生机制。重点研究了全球化背景下江苏沿江开发的战略问题,主要包括：①江苏沿江地区开发的环境和条件比较分析;②沿江产业带重组与实施跨江开发;③再造新战略据点;④打破行政区界限沿江联动实施区域一体化,等等。最后指出：加快江苏沿江开发,必须科学规划、统筹安排,做到空间合理、时间有序,同时考虑沿江的环境容量有限,应实施可持续发展和南北联动的开发战略,拓展沿江的开发空间,提升沿江的产业发展水平。     

Local hegemonies resisting a green shift and what to do about it: the introduction of a regional park in southern Norway

In the Lister region in the southern part of Norway, attempts are currently being made to facilitate for a green shift. The paper discusses two different approaches towards such a challenge. The first is procedural, where success or failure hinges on the methods applied in the effort to convince locals to incorporate climate considerations. The alternative is to reflect upon how a green ideology blends into pre-existing ideological elements in the region. It is claimed that an important reason for the failure so far to place the environment at the core of regional development, is that too much emphasis has been put on the first approach, on procedure and dialogue, whereas few efforts have been made to understand the structure of the discursive terrain in the region. What prevents a green shift has less to do with methods and is more connected to the dominance of a logic of economic growth and the fact that locals are confident that nature is already dealt with in a sensible manner. The conclusion is that we need to understand what people are concerned about and what prevents them to change, before we start telling them how to think and do development.     

基于放射源理论的区域生态系统评价方法

研究区域生态系统定量评价方法对区域生态系统的建设与保护具有十分重要的意义。从放射源理论出发,首次将生态影响距离、生态源及生态影响效应的概念引入分析评价中,提出了区域生态系统的定量评价方法,并建立了基于景观空间格局的区域生态系统生态影响的定量计算公式。甘垛镇新庄片和横泾镇沿荡片的应用实例表明,该方法原理简明、结果直观,为区域生态系统的科学评价提供了定量评价方法。     

Resampling methods for estimating dispersion indices in random and adaptive designs

In many surveys in environmental and natural phenomena the aim is to evaluate the heterogeneity, and the skewness of the distribution of the number point-objects in the study area opportunely partitioned in sub-regions. For this purpose, in this paper the estimation of dispersion indices is considered by using simple random sampling and adaptive sampling with initial simple random sampling selected with replacement or without replacement. The jackknife and the bootstrap procedures are proposed in both cases for reducing bias. Finally, both a simulation study and a case study on biological population referred to a Oidium tuckeri contamination in a growing vineyard is performed to assess the accuracy of the proposed estimators.     

安徽沿江地区的区域发展特点与开发对策

安徽沿江地区虽然交通网络初具规模,城市专业化分工明显经济发展水平较低,属长江干流地区的低谷地带。另外,整个沿江地区应发挥水运与矿产资源的双重优势,促使建材,钢铁,石经等临江工业进一步开并予以合理布局。     

我国城市地价评估模型及其空间分布规律研究

本文以城市地价产生地区差异的理论分析为依据,提出了城市地价的主要影响因素、因子,并以城市土地批租资料为基础运用逐步回归分析方法建立城市地价评估模型。根据模型估测了我国５１７个城市１９９２年的地价水平,最后分析了我国城市地价空间分布的规律及其未来走势展望。     

辽河三角洲的自然资源与区域开发

辽河三角洲有丰富的地上和地下资源，是农业综合开发和油田建设的重点地区。其区域资源开发以油田、稻田、苇田和虾田开发为核心，在土地利用主要做到全面规划与统筹兼顾；对淡水资源不足的问题要从开源与节流两方面来进行解决；对河口湿地景观生态系统要注意保护，发挥业已建立的自然保护区的功能；对河口湾水产资源更要加强保护与培育。