ON THE MISMATCH BETWEEN DATA AND MODELS OF HYDROLOGIC AND WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Many difficulties exist in the matching of models with data. This paper identifies elements of this problem and discusses considerations involved in model evaluation. The well known multivariate linear regression model is used to illustrate the distinctions between accuracy and precision and between estimation and prediction (because the model is commonly misused.) No amount of additional data will improve the accuracy of a poor model. A high R², while indicative of a good matching between the observed data and model estimates, is a poor criterion for judging adequacy of the model to make good predictions of future events. Model evaluation also includes the problem of introducing secondary data and proxy variables into a model. Secondary data frequently enter, for example, the mass, energy and water budget equations because of difficulties in measuring the primary variables. Proxy variables arise because of a desire to collapse a vector of incomparable values, say, of water quality into a single number. Review of the above issues indicates that model evaluation is a multi-criterion problem, often imbedded in a larger framework where models are intended to meet multiple objectives. The mismatch of models and data has increasing legal and social consequences.     

MODELING ACTUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM FORESTED WATERSHEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: About 50 to 80 percent of precipitation in the southeastern United States returns to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration. As evapotranspiration is a major component in the forest water balances, accurately quantifying it is critical to predicting the effects of forest management and global change on water, sediment, and nutrient yield from forested watersheds. However, direct measurement of forest evapotranspiration on a large basin or a regional scale is not possible. The objectives of this study were to develop an empirical model to estimate long‐term annual actual evapotranspiration (ART) for forested watersheds and to quantify spatial AET patterns across the southeast. A geographic information system (GIS) database including land cover, daily streamflow, and climate was developed using long term experimental and monitoring data from 39 forested watersheds across the region. Using the stepwise selection method implemented in a statistical modeling package, a long term annual AET model was constructed. The final multivariate linear model includes four independent variables—annual precipitation, watershed latitude, watershed elevation, and percentage of forest coverage. The model has an adjusted R² of 0.794 and is sufficient to predict long term annual ART for forested watersheds across the southeastern United States. The model developed by this study may be used to examine the spatial variability of water availability, estimate annual water loss from mesoscale watersheds, and project potential water yield change due to forest cover change.     

区域经济开发中的生态建设——以天山北坡经济带昌吉州为例

昌吉州区域经济开发在新疆地方经济发展中占有重要地位，在发展区域经济时也对生态环境造成了影响或污染，加强生态建设,做好区域环境保护的规划十分必要。昌吉州在石油勘探开发、土地资源开发中重视生态建设，在保护耕地、保护森林、野生动、植物方面制定出台了一系列措施，行至有效，取得了一定的实效。     

HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY RELATIONSHIPS FOR URBAN STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA1

ABSTRACT: Hydraulic geometry relationships, or regional curves, relate bankfull stream channel dimensions to watershed drainage area. Hydraulic geometry relationships for streams throughout North Carolina vary with hydrology, soils, and extent of development within a watershed. An urban curve that is the focus of this study shows the bankfull features of streams in urban and suburban watersheds throughout the North Carolina Piedmont. Seventeen streams were surveyed in watersheds that had greater than 10 percent impervious cover. The watersheds had been developed long enough for the streams to redevelop bankfull features, and they had no major impoundments. The drainage areas for the streams ranged from 0.4 to 110.3 square kilometers. Cross‐sectional and longitudinal surveys were conducted to determine the channel dimension, pattern, and profile of each stream and power functions were fitted to the data. Comparisons were made with regional curves developed previously for the rural Piedmont, and enlargement ratios were produced. These enlargement ratios indicated a substantial increase in the hydraulic geometry for the urban streams in comparison to the rural streams. A comparison of flood frequency indicates a slight decrease in the bankfull discharge return interval for the gaged urban streams as compared to the gaged rural streams. The study data were collected by North Carolina State University (NCSU), the University of North Carolina at Charlotte (UNC), and Charlotte Storm Water Services. Urban regional curves are useful tools for applying natural channel design in developed watersheds. They do not, however, replace the need for field calibration and verification of bankfull stream channel dimensions.     

在强震区进行投资应注意的几个问题

在强震区进行投资时,除要考虑一般经济环境下的投资风险外,还要考虑特殊自然环境条件下的风险.区域的地震危险性、自然环境危害性和经济运行安全性都是在强震区投资活动中应综合考虑的因素,文中就如何控制强震区的投资风险提出了建议.     

RIO GRANDE VALLEY,COLORADO, NEW MEXICO,AND TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: The Rio Grande Valley National Water-Quality Assessment study unit encompasses about 45,700 square miles in Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas upstream from the gaging station Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas, and includes surface-water closed basins east of the Continental Divide in New Mexico, and the San Luis Closed Basin in Colorado. The mean annual precipitation ranges from less than 6 to more than 50 inches; potential evapo-transpiration ranges from less than 35 to more than 80 inches per year. Land use is mainly rangeland, forest land, and cropland. Total irrigated acreage in 1990 was about 914,000 acres and water use was about 3,410,000 acre-feet. Two structural settings are found in the study unit: alluvial basins and bedrock basins. The alluvial basins can have through-flowing surface water or be closed basins. The discussion of streamflow and water quality for the surface-water system is based on four river reaches for the 750 miles of the main stem. The quality of the ground water is affected by both natural process and human activities and by nonpoint and point sources. Nonpoint sources for surface water include agriculture, hydromodification, and mining operations; point sources are mainly discharge from wastewater treatment plants. Nonpoint sources for ground water include agriculture and septic tanks and cesspools; point sources include leaking underground storage tanks, unlined or manure-lined holding ponds used for disposal of dairy wastes, landfills, and mining operations.     

UNIT HYDROGRAPHS FOR DEVELOPING DESIGN FLOOD HYDROGRAPHS1

ABSTRACT: In Illinois, a procedure has been developed to derive unit hydrographs for generating 100-year and probable maximum flood hydrographs, on the basis of 11 parameters that define the hydrograph shape very well. Regional regressions of these parameters with basin factors show very high correlation. Thus satisfactory values of parameters can be determined for ungaged areas or those with a few years' record. The nonlinearity in unit hydrographs derived from usual floods is largely attributed to mixing within-channel and overbank-flow flood events. To minimize the effects of nonlinearity and to derive unit hydrographa suitable for calculating spillway design floods, use of the proposed method of developing such hydrographs is recommended.     

rs双区异常与强震中短期预报

本文根据组合模式原理提出了一种用小震调制比（ｒｍ）异常区出现高频次的空间异常图，进行强地震中短期预报的方法，简称ｒｓ法。该方法在预报强震地点和时间上可望取得较好效果。本文在介绍该方法的基础上，应用该法对３次７级以上大震进行了回顾性检验。     

A method to create simplified versions of existing habitat suitability index (HSI) models

The habitat evaluation procedures (HEP), developed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, are widely used in the United States to determine the impacts of major construction projects on fish and wildlife habitats. HEP relies heavily on habitat suitability index (HSI) models that use measurements of important habitat characteristics to rate habitat quality for a species on a scale of 0 (unsuitable) to 1.0 (optimal). This report describes a method to simplify existing HSI models to reduce the time and expense involved in sampling habitat variables. Simplified models for three species produced HSI values within 0.2 of those predicted by the original models 90% of the time. Simplified models are particularly useful for rapid habitat inventories and evaluations, wildlife management, and impact assessments in extensive areas or with limited time and personnel.     

Redistributive state planning: toward an operational framework for an effective spatial development planning

The paper starts from an assessment of regional policy inspired by considerations of social justice. An effort is made to sketch the outline of a top‐down and bottom‐up approach and provide a new profile for regional planning, and for professional planners within the context of contemporary politico‐economic transformations. The planner, from having been a pure technician who does not question the nature of problems faced, must become actively engaged in, and committed to the problems and conflicts of the area, and to the specific proposals put forward.