Distributed process modeling for regional assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise

Sea-level rise involves increases in the coastal processes of inundation and erosion which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. Many assessments of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise have been detailed and localised in extent. There is a need for regional assessment techniques which identify areas vulnerable to sea-level rise. Four physical environmental parameters – elevation, exposure, aspect and slope, are modeled on a regional scale for the Northern Spencer Gulf (NSG) study area using commonly available low-resolution elevation data of 10 m contour interval and GIS-based spatial modeling techniques. For comparison, the same parameters are modeled on a fine-scale for the False Bay area within the NSG using high-resolution elevation data. Physical environmental parameters on the two scales are statistically compared to coastal vulnerability classes as identified by Harvey et al. [1] using the Spearman rank-correlation test and stepwise linear regression. Coastal vulnerability is strongly correlated with elevation and exposure at both scales and this relationship is only slightly stronger for the high resolution False Bay data. The results of this study suggest that regional scale distributed coastal process modeling may be suitable as a first cut in assessing coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise in tide-dominated, sedimentary coastal regions. Distributed coastal process modeling provides a suitable basis for the assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise of sufficient accuracy for on-ground management and priority-setting on a regional scale.     

Optimizing Bankfull Discharge and Hydraulic Geometry Relations for Streams in New York State1

Mulvihill, Christiane I. and Barry P. Baldigo, 2012. Optimizing Bankfull Discharge and Hydraulic Geometry Relations for Streams in New York State. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 449-463. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00623.x Abstract: This study analyzes how various data stratification schemes can be used to optimize the accuracy and utility of regional hydraulic geometry (HG) models of bankfull discharge, width, depth, and cross-sectional area for streams in New York. Topographic surveys and discharge records from 281 cross sections at 82 gaging stations with drainage areas of 0.52-396 square miles were used to create log-log regressions of region-based relations between bankfull HG metrics and drainage area. The success with which regional models distinguished unique bankfull discharge and HG patterns was assessed by comparing each regional model to those for all other regions and a pooled statewide model. Gages were also stratified (grouped) by mean annual runoff (MAR), Rosgen stream type, and water-surface slope to test if these models were better predictors of HG to drainage area relations. Bankfull discharge models for Regions 4 and 7 were outside the 95% confidence interval bands of the statewide model, and bankfull width, depth, and cross-sectional area models for Region 3 differed significantly (p < 0.05) from those of other regions. This study found that statewide relations between drainage area and HG were strongest when data were stratified by hydrologic region, but that co-variable models could yield more accurate HG estimates in some local regional curve applications.     

Fluorescence excitation–emission matrix spectra coupled with parallel factor and regional integration analysis to characterize organic matter humification

The present several humification indexes cannot provide the whole fluorescence information on organic matter composition and the evaluation results from them are inconsistent sometimes. In this study, fluorescence excitation–emission matrix spectra coupled with parallel factor analysis and fluorescence regional integration analysis were utilized to investigate organic matter humification, and the projection pursuit cluster (PPC) model was applied to form a suitable index for overcoming the difficulties in multi-index evaluation. The result showed that the ratio between the volume of humic- and fulvic-like fluorescence region and the volume of protein-like fluorescence region not only revealed the heterogeneity of organic matter, but also provided more accurate information on organic matter humification. In addition, the results showed that the PPC model could be used to characterize integrally the humification, and the projected characteristic value calculated from the PPC model could be used as the integrated humification evaluation index.     

基于风险管理的区域（流域）地下水污染预警方法研究

地下水是我国重要的水资源,当前我国面临的地下水污染防治形势较为严峻.开展地下水污染风险评价及预警是预防地下水污染的有效措施,目前国内外有关地下水污染预警方面研究尚处于探索阶段,未形成一套完善的、可供借鉴的技术方法.本研究在分析不同尺度地区地下水污染预警工作需求的基础上,筛选出区域(流域)尺度地下水污染预警指标,包括地质介质防护性能、污染源特征、地下水动态及地下水价值因素四项指标,并利用指标叠置法建立了地下水污染预警模型.以包头平原区为例,开展了地下水污染预警研究,利用建立的模型划分了不同等级的地下水污染预警分区,研究成果可为当地地下水资源管理部门提供科技支撑.     

基于AERMOD及减排政策的昆明市工业区SO2情景模拟

以昆明市工业区为试点,将2009年作为基准年,2015年作为情景年,利用Aermod模型系统以及相关数据对工业区内SO2环境浓度进行预测.模拟情景的建立基于“十二五”工业源减排规划.研究发现工业源减排措施将对区域SO2浓度有显著影响,降幅最高可达13%.2015年不同模拟时段的SO2等浓度下分布面积均较2009年有明显减小,高浓度地区个数变少,这种现象也出现在污染源非集中地区.研究结果表明利用模型预测可有效分析减排政策对工业区内环境质量状况的影响,有助于建立减排响应机制.     

Ecotoudsm Model and Benefits of Periphery Regions in Western Sichuan Province

There are many problems in the minority regions of western Sichuan Province,such as serious soil erosion,fragile ecological environment,low levels of economy and so on.Ad- vantages of tourism resources in theperiphery regionsshould be fully utilized,andmulti-tourismmeets the characteristics and present situation of the minority regions.Themulti-tourism de- velopment modelcan exert the functions of tourism as the key industry.Based on the demands and the internal linkages among different industries,the mo...     

湖南省区域经济差异及时空格局特征

区域经济差异是一种客观存在的经济与社会现象,适度的差异对宏观经济发展有积极的推动作用,但差异过大不仅对区域社会经济发展产生危害,而且关系到社会的稳定和可持续发展。20世纪90年代以来,作为全国,也是中部地区的农业大省,湖南省经济发展总体水平迅速提升,但省域内区域经济差异也发生了显著的变化。以计量统计为基础,分析了湖南省区域经济差异变化的时间特征,并采用因子分析法和GIS技术,通过建立综合评价指标体系,探讨了湖南区域经济差异的空间格局特征。在此基础上,分析了区域差异的成因,并提出了协调湖南省区域经济发展的对策建议。     

区域管治中的博弈效应

区域管治是在经济全球化背景下,通过多种利益集团的对话、协调、合作,解决区域内经济社会冲突,增强区域效力,其核心内容是协调和化解区域发展中的各种利益冲突。本文通过引入博弈论分析方法到区域发展研究领域,构造出地方政府-中央政府政策博弈模型、地方政府-土方政府竞合博弈模型、政府-企业-公众冲突模型来分析和描述区域管涌中各利益集团之间的博弈关系和过程,分析这些决策过程中各博弈方相互制约,相互作用的规律和疚,并针对不同的利益博弈类型,提出优化协调方案,为下一步更好地协调各方利益、实施区域管涌、推动区域一体化发展奠定理论基础,也为我国在划定主体功能区后制定差别化的区域管涌政策提供参考。     

Analysis on the Evolution of Regional Economic Disparity in the West Coast of the Strait

With the implementation of reform and opening-up, the overall economy of China has made brilliant achievements; meanwhile, however, the economic disparity has been enlarging among some regions, and between the city and the countryside. The existence and evolution of this kind of economic disparity is concerned with social stability, sustainable development and the construction of harmonious society, which has gradually become the hotspot in social economic development. The West Coast of the Strait （WCS） located in southeast littoral areas is adjacent to the Pearl and Yangtze River Delta in the south and north and faces Taiwan Province in the east. The stability and development of this region has vital political and economic meaning in the social economic development of our country. It has important theoretical meaning and practical value to research the form, characteristics and evolution of regional economic disparity in the WCS. Based on insightful analysis on existing study results on the WCS, the paper defines the connotation and extension. By a series of absolute and comparative relative evaluation indexes and taking the WCS since 1992 as the study object, the paper makes analysis on different scales including three regions, four regions, 20 cities and 152 counties, quantitatively evaluates the level, characteristics and evolution of the regional economic disparity and compares the regional economic disparity on different scales. The main conclusions are as follows： the variation trend of the absolute disparity of the whole region is obvious and stable, which has presented an inflating trend; the comparative variation trend on a large scale has waved, The comparative disparity of the three regions increased annually from 1992 to around 2000, which had a decreasing trend from around 2000 to 2005; the comparative variation trend on a small scale was not stable, which showed an annual increase of four regions, 20 cities and 152 counties from 1992 to around 2003 and a decrease from around 2003 to 2005; the     

基于协调发展视角的区域发展差异研究——以江苏省为例

20世纪90年代以来,区域差异研究成为学术界和政府管理者关注的热点领域.长期以来学者们主要以单一经济指标或复合经济指标作为衡量因子,分析区域经济差异时空演变及差异背后的自然、社会、经济驱动机理.从可持续发展的角度看,区域发展不单是区域经济的发展,而应是社会、经济与资源环境三方面的协调.基于这一理解,从可持续协调发展人手,建立了区域发展综合评价指标体系,选取了表征社会进步、经济发展和资源环境支持3个方面的27个因素作为评价指标,分析了区域综合发展的测算方法,提出了综合发展指数和发展协调指数.在案例分析中运用所设计的测度方法对江苏省内县级行政单位的综合发展进行了评价和分析.