The use of material flow analysis and the ecological footprint in regional policy-making: application and insights from Northern Ireland

This paper aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on the use of resource accounting tools in regional policy-making. The Northern Limits project applied material flow analysis (MFA) and ecological footprinting (EF) to regional policy-making in Northern Ireland over a number of years. The early phase of the research informed the regions first sustainable development strategy which was published in 2006 with key targets relating to the EF and improving the resource efficiency of the economy. Phase II identified the next steps required to address data availability and quality and the use of MFA and EF in providing a measurement and monitoring framework for the strategy and the development of the strategy implementation plan. The use of MFA and EF in sustainable regional policy-making and the monitoring of its implementation is an ongoing process which has raised a number of research issues which can inform the ongoing application and development of these and other resource accounting tools to within Northern Ireland, provide insights for their use in other regions, and help set out the priorities for research to support this important policy area.     

人才流动的空间特征、驱动因素及其对长三角一体化高质量发展的启示——基于高校毕业生的分析

2018年长三角一体化发展上升为国家战略,旨在以一体化的思路和举措打破行政壁垒,实现资金、人才、技术等要素资源的畅通流动。人才作为知识经济时代创新和发展的主要动力,其合理分布和有序流动对于推动长三角一体化和实现高质量发展具有重要意义。聚焦高校毕业生这一重要区域人才资源,基于毕业生就业质量报告数据,刻画长三角高校毕业生流动的空间格局,使用地理探测器探索城市创新等因素对毕业生流动的影响。研究结果表明：（1）长三角高校毕业生流动基本遵循随距离衰减和等级跃迁规律,区域内就业占比高达79.72%。江苏、浙江、安徽呈现出差异化的省内流动空间形态。（2）位于“Z”型发达地带和沿海的城市毕业生粘滞率较高,上海和与其紧邻的苏州、嘉兴、南通形成“高—高”区。（3）因子探测结果显示,创新因素对毕业生流动的驱动力较强,但按省域来看,驱动作用在江苏最强,浙江次之,而在安徽并不显著。风险探测显示,创新因素的驱动存在阈值效应。研究揭示了高校毕业生的流动格局及与城市创新的关系,为推动区域人才一体化政策的制定提供了理论和实证依据。     

深圳市一次典型春季臭氧污染事件成因研究

以往珠三角地区臭氧污染普遍发生在秋季,但近年来春季臭氧污染事件不断发生,并且污染出现时间愈发提前.本研究聚焦于深圳市2022年春季（2月26日）一次臭氧污染过程,系统性地分析了此次臭氧污染过程的主要成因与关键驱动因素.结果表明,在春季臭氧污染的形成过程中,气象条件扮演着重要角色,在高压天气系统影响下的强太阳辐射、高温、低湿和低风速是导致此次臭氧污染的重要因素.通过臭氧的垂直观测数据分析发现,夜间残留层中的高浓度臭氧能够在上午时段混入边界层内,加速地面臭氧浓度累积.此外,通过臭氧前体物浓度的变化特征分析发现,在污染日的下午时段出现臭氧及其前体物浓度的快速升高,推测为上风向区域的外部输送贡献加强,这也是导致此次春季臭氧污染发生的重要原因.敏感性分析表明,污染日的臭氧生成主要受VOCs控制,但在污染加剧时受到NO_x控制,因此,对春季臭氧污染的 防控需要从区域角度开展VOCs和NO_x的协同减排与治理.     

长江中下游粮食主产区耕地利用生态效率区域差异与空间收敛

基于耕地利用生态效率内涵构建其评价指标体系,并运用SBM-Undesirable模型、核密度估计法及空间收敛模型,对长江中下游粮食主产区71个市（州）耕地利用生态效率区域差异及收敛态势定量刻画。结果表明：（1）2007—2018年长江中下游粮食主产区耕地利用生态效率整体水平中等,各粮食主产区效率差异明显,效率损失主要源于投入冗余所带来的投入非效率,其中劳动力投入冗余度最高;（2）时间维度上看,长江中下游粮食主产区整体耕地利用生态效率始终存在两级分化的现象,整体内部差异呈扩大趋势,但逐步趋于稳定,各粮食主产区内部差异演变具有较大分异性;（3）空间维度上看,考虑空间溢出效应的情境下,长江中下游粮食主产区整体存在显著的绝对β收敛,且在科技水平、农户收入水平、灌溉水平及空间溢出效应等因素的共同影响下以1.01%的速度条件收敛,但各粮食主产区收敛态势具有区域差异性。应建立粮食主产区协同机制,因地制宜,分区施策以提升长江中下游粮食主产区耕地利用生态效率水平。     

Policy support for rural economic development based on Holling’s ecological concept of panarchy

Globally, rural regions are searching for innovative growth opportunities to reinvigorate their economies. This paper examines the redevelopment of rural communities through an ecological lens – based on the notion of continuous cycles of adaptive change within complex systems as first identified within Holling’s concept of panarchy. Panarchy suggests that complex systems have more than a single equilibrium point and, instead, have some inherent resiliency based on the notion of multiple stable regimes. As such, panarchy provides a conceptual model that describes the ways in which complex social and ecological systems are organized and structured both spatially and temporally. By drawing parallels between the characteristics of ecological communities and rural economic systems, a novel framework is developed to assist policy-makers reflect on a rural community’s position along its own adaptive change cycle and, then, implement appropriate inventions to improve system resiliency – which in this case is linked with economic resiliency through development and/or growth. Supported by empirical data emerging from both key informant interviews and content analysis of current rural development policy, this work also identifies leverage points where policy intervention may be most advantageous by specifying the timing of policy instruments on the cycle. Specifically, this framework describes four leverage points, three major and one minor, to help push or pull rural regions into an area of higher resilience.     

Bankfull Regional Curves for the Inner and Outer Bluegrass Regions of Kentucky1

Brockman, Ruth R., Carmen T. Agouridis, Stephen R. Workman, Lindell E. Ormsbee, and Alex W. Fogle, 2012. Bankfull Regional Curves for the Inner and Outer Bluegrass Regions of Kentucky. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 391‐406. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00621.x Abstract: Bankfull regional curves that relate channel dimensions and discharge to watershed drainage area are useful tools for assisting in the correct identification of bankfull elevation and in stream restoration and reconstruction. This study assessed 28 stable streams located in two physiographic regions of Kentucky: the Inner Bluegrass and the Outer Bluegrass. Bankfull channel dimensions, discharge, and return period as well as average channel slope, median bed material size, sinuosity, Rosgen stream classification, and percent impervious area were determined. Significant relationships were found between drainage area and the bankfull characteristics of cross‐sectional area, width, mean depth, and discharge for both the Inner Bluegrass and Outer Bluegrass regions (α = 0.05). It was also found that the percent impervious area in a watershed had minimal effect on bankfull dimensions, which is attributed to the well‐vegetated nature of the streambanks, cohesive streambank materials, and bedrock control. No significant differences between any of the Inner Bluegrass and Outer Bluegrass regional curves were found (α = 0.05). Comparisons were made between the Inner Bluegrass and Outer Bluegrass curves and others developed in karst‐influenced areas in the Eastern United States. Although few significant differences were found between the regional curves for bankfull discharge and width, a number of the curves differed with regards to bankfull cross‐sectional area and mean depth.     

城市污水处理系统真核微生物群落特性与地域性差异

城市污水处理厂是控制水污染、保证城市与人类可持续发展的重要设施.真核微生物作为活性污泥系统中不可或缺的一部分,在指示活性污泥性质、预测出水水质、强化净化效果、保障系统稳定运行过程中发挥着重要作用.本研究以来自北京、深圳和无锡的14个城市污水处理厂的61份样品为研究对象,采用18S r DNA高通量测序技术并结合多种生态学及统计学相关分析方法,探讨了活性污泥系统内真核微生物群落特性与地域性差异.结果表明,不同空间尺度下,活性污泥系统内真核微生物群落优势种群组成相似,在Devision水平上,群落优势种群主要由真菌、原生动物(纤毛亚门)和后生动物组成,三者相对丰度之和高达86. 22%～89. 40%.不同城市污水处理厂活性污泥系统内真核微生物多样性存在差异,无锡群落的多样性(丰富度和香农-威纳多样性指数)最高,北京的最低,且3个城市的活性污泥系统内真核微生物群落结构存在显著的地域性差异. partial mantel test和多元回归矩阵分析结果表明,曝气池混合液温度和出水总氮浓度与活性污泥系统内真核微生物群落结构的相关性较强.研究结果深化了对污水处理系统中真核微生物的认识.     

2013年秦皇岛连续两次降水过程对比分析

利用常规气象观测资料、自动站资料及卫星资料,从大尺度环流背景和水汽、动力、热力条件出发,对2013年8月底东北冷涡影响下秦皇岛两次降水过程进行对比分析。结果表明：由于处在东北冷涡发展的不同阶段,中低层温度场配置不同,两次过程降水特点极不相同。8月27日降水是一次连续的区域性降水过程,以层状云降水为主,降水均匀连续,8月31日至9月2日是冷涡后部西北气流影响下的数日局地性对流降水,具有很强的突发性。     

基于模型模拟的成都市PM2.5污染来源解析

在建立成都市大气污染物排放清单的基础上,采用源开关敏感性分析法,设置8个排放情景,基于WRF-CMAQ模型模拟分析了2015年1、4、7和10月这4个典型代表月份的大气污染传输和不同行业对成都市PM_(2.5)污染贡献.结果表明成都市PM_(2.5)污染较重,特别是1月达到130μg·m~(-3)以上;浓度的高值集中在中心城区,且与周边城市PM_(2.5)污染连接成片.由于气团比较稳定,大气污染物的区域传输能力较弱,成都市PM_(2.5)污染以本地源的贡献为主,占比为61%.从行业贡献来看,移动源、扬尘源和生活源对成都市PM_(2.5)年均浓度贡献率分别为29%、26%和24%,是影响PM_(2.5)污染的主要污染源,下一步应强化对这3类源的污染控制.     

大气污染联合治理分区视角下的中国PM2.5关联关系时空变异特征分析

联合治理分区下PM_(2.5)关联关系时空变异特征识别对中国大气污染防治意义重大.本文主要基于2000～2016年遥感反演的中国大陆334个地级市PM_(2.5)浓度数据,利用空间单元聚合策略与地理时空加权回归技术,系统分析了大气污染联合治理分区视角下的中国PM_(2.5)关联关系时空变异特征.结果表明:①以PM_(2.5)为首要污染物,综合考虑污染程度、地理位置、气象、地形和经济等因素可将中国大陆地区划分为10个大气污染联合治理区.②地理时空加权回归能够有效刻画PM_(2.5)与关联因素间的时空非平稳关系.同时,人口规模、第二产业生产总值、SO_2排放量、年平均气温、年降水量以及年平均相对湿度被识别出对PM_(2.5)浓度的变化影响存在显著时空差异.③人口规模对PM_(2.5)浓度的影响程度各年最大的地区均为京津冀蒙区域;川渝滇黔区域中第二产业生产总值对PM_(2.5)浓度影响程度变异度最大,在黑吉辽区域之外,SO_2排放量回归系数值均先随时间逐渐减小再增大最后又减小;各治理区中年平均温度对PM_(2.5)影响程度的时间变异程度较小;而年降水量与年平均相对湿度对PM_(2.5)影响程度在各区域中呈现不同的变异特征.