IMPROVING REGIONAL-MODEL ESTIMATES OF URBAN-RUNOFF QUALITY USING LOCAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: Urban water-quality managers need load estimates of storm-runoff pollutants to design effective remedial programs. Estimates are commonly made using published models calibrated to large regions of the country. This paper presents statistical methods, termed model-adjustment procedures (MAPs), which use a combination of local data and published regional models to improve estimates of urban-runoff quality. Each MAP is a form of regression analysis that uses a local data base as a calibration data set to adjust the regional model, in effect increasing the size of the local data base without additional, expensive data collection. The adjusted regional model can then be used to estimate storm-runoff quality at unmonitored sites and storms in the locality. The four MAPs presented in this study are (1) single-factor regression against the regional model prediction, P_u; (2) least-squares regression against P_u; (3) least-squares regression against P_u and additional local variables; and (4) weighted combination of P_u and a local-regression prediction. Identification of the statistically most valid method among these four depends upon characteristics of the local data base. A MAP-selection scheme based on statistical analysis of the calibration data set is presented and tested.     

能源消耗弹性控制下的区域能源安全动态评价

为衡量能源消耗控制指标对我国区域能源安全管理的影响,以区域能源安全为研究对象,探索在能源消耗弹性控制下区域能源安全状态的动态变化规律。通过分析影响区域能源安全的影响因素,根据国家、行业和地方标准对指标的标准化赋值,构建了由反映能源安全驱动力、能源安全压力、能源安全状态、能源安全响应和能源安全响应的17个指标组成的DPSIR指标体系;基于选取样本指标的交互特征,在充分考虑能源消耗弹性控制的前提下,构造了融合模糊积分方法和数据包络分析方法的FI-DEA模型,并利用该模型对我国10个典型区域2012—2014年能源安全状况进行了动态评价。结果表明,在能源消耗弹性控制下,采用FI-DEA模型进行区域能源安全动态评价结果是符合实效的,2013—2014年,河北等地的能源安全管理有效性凸显,其能源安全动态评价值为0.96,比上年同期显著改善;而重庆等地的能源安全管理有效性较弱,其能源安全动态评价值为0.683 2,出现明显下滑。     

2013-2014年河南省PM2.5浓度及其来源模拟研究

随着城市化和工业化水平的逐渐提高,河南省的空气污染问题也日益严重.利用嵌套网格空气质量模式（NAQPMS）,数值模拟了2013年7月-2014年6月年河南省大气细颗粒物及其前体物（NO₂、SO₂、PM₁₀、PM_2.5）的地面浓度,并量化了其主要来源.结果表明：模式能够较好地再现污染物的时空演化特征.整体来讲,河南省PM_2.5的高值区集中在中部和北部地区,呈现冬季高、夏季低的特点.在线源解析模拟发现,河南省不同地区PM_2.5的来源有所不同,中西部地区主要来自于本地,而在东部和北部地市,来自周边省份的区域输送更为显著,其贡献达到40%～50%,且在PM_2.5浓度的高值区更为明显.就行业贡献而言,居民源、工业源和机动车排放是河南省PM_2.5浓度的主要来源,其浓度贡献分别为23.7 μg·m^-3（贡献比例24%,下同）、20.6 μg·m^-3（21%）和21.3 μg·m^-3（22%）,电厂、农牧业和地面扬尘的浓度贡献分别为7.0 μg·m^-3（7%）、8.7 μg·m^-3（9%）和17.8 μg·m^-3（18%）.受居民源影响最大的地区是河南中东部和北部地市,其贡献达到PM_2.5浓度的27%、27%和25%.工业源影响最大的地区集中在太行山南部地市,其浓度贡献为26.4 μg·m^-3（24%）,在其他地市的贡献为17%～23%.机动车对河南东部影响最为显著,其浓度贡献为22.9 μg·m^-3（24%）.电厂和农畜牧业对全省PM_2.5的贡献分布比较均匀,分别为6%～9%和8%～10%.分析不同浓度下的PM_2.5来源,发现工业源和扬尘贡献随PM_2.5浓度增加逐渐降低,而居民源和机动车排放的贡献则有所增加,在PM_2.5浓度高于100 μg·m^-3期间,达到22%和20%.     

关于总量减排未来发展方向的探讨——以济南市COD减排优化为例

自“十一五”实行总量减排以来,国家和地方均投入了大量资金,用于治理工程的建设,减排效果显著.如何在保证经济社会发展的前提下,实现COD等污染的进一步减排,也是一个丞待研究的课题.然而在各类污染物产排量因经济社会发展而急剧增加的背景下,想要彻底解决环境污染问题,仅依靠工程减排措施恐难以为继.以2014年-2030年济南市COD减排优化研究为例,探讨了未来总量减排的发展方向,并在此基础上,提出未来总量减排的建议.     

Modes of governing Canadian waste management: a case study of Metro Vancouver’s energy-from-waste controversy

Managing municipal solid waste is a pressing environmental and political concern for Canadian municipalities who bear the primary responsibility for waste management (WM). In 2015, Metro Vancouver’s (MV’s) plans to expand their capacity to expand their WM capacity with energy-from-waste technology was abandoned, despite shrinking landfill space and persistent public opposition to new landfills. Using Bulkeley et al.’s [(2005). Governing municipal waste: towards a new analytical framework. Journal of Environmental Policy and Planning, 7(1), 1–23. doi:10.1080/15239080500251700] ‘modes of governing framework’, we analyse MV’s failed attempt to expand their energy-from-waste capacity to better understand the challenges associated with governing WM in Canada. We argue that a history of downloading responsibility for WM to municipalities, regional districts, and industry has fragmented WM governance, posing a challenge for developing new waste infrastructure. We find that this localization of responsibility is incompatible with contemporary WM challenges. The scalar mismatch between waste’s material impacts and the scale at which waste is managed has resulted in co-dependence and conflict between putatively independent municipalities, regional districts, and private companies. This inhibits higher-level WM coordination while the autonomy of individual municipalities is simultaneously undermined.     

中国固体废物进出口格局演化分析——以废纸为例

固体废物进出口是影响我国生态文明建设及区域可持续发展的重要因素,也是最近环境管理关注的焦点。为了认识我国固体废物的进出口形势和全球固体废物贸易的格局,本文以进口量最大的固体废物——废纸为例,系统总结梳理了近年来我国废纸进出口情况的演化,绘制了2016年国际废纸贸易的流向地图,从2015年以来的废物管理政策调整出发探讨未来废纸产业的发展和转变。研究发现:(1)作为主要的造纸原材料,我国废纸进口量从1996年的137万t增加到2016年的2850万t,增长了近20倍。(2)当前全球废纸贸易突出表现为发达国家出口、发展中国家进口的格局,我国作为最大的废纸进口国,进口约占全球总量55%的废纸,美国则为最大的废纸出口国,出口约占全球总量36%的废纸。(3)应对洋垃圾入境的挑战,未来我国应在进口管控、再生资源产业发展等多个方面继续加强政策的引导和调控作用,激励国内的再生资源市场,促使废纸利用企业调整产业布局,加快产业转型。     

Enhancing regional process safety management

As industrial operations expand, major incidents continue to affect people, damage facilities, and impact the environment. In the last 20 years, about 50% of these incidents occurred in facilities that had implemented some form of Process Safety Management (PSM) and 50% came about in smaller facilities that did not include such planning (Demichela et al., 2004). The objective of this article is to use PSM principles to create practical recommendations at the regional level, to complement those previously developed for singular facilities. This article compares Strathcona County Emergency Service (SCES) in Alberta with Technical Standards & Safety Authority (TSSA) in Ontario, with respect to safety, facility licensing, permit requirements, risk assessment procedures and land use planning aspects to determine PSM enhancements for SCES. Furthermore, for a better overview, two supplemental provincial organisations in Alberta, namely Alberta Boiler Safety Association (ABSA) and Safety Codes Council (SCC), were also considered. We proposed that SCES could develop more detailed facility-specific licensing procedures, auditing, and inspection. SCES could also provide details of accredited organisations that carry out inspections and audits on their behalf. When reviewing the quantitative risk assessment processes for SCES and TSSA, we recommend that SCES should update their probability data sources used in their cumulative risk assessment study. Based on the authors’ experience and gathered data, the use of additional facility practices such as safety management system, internal audits, and checklists can enhance incident prevention.     

基于DBSCAN聚类的城市区域火灾风险计算方法——以深圳市盐田区为例*

为探究评估城市区域的火灾综合风险,提出空间聚类和层次分析法对深圳市盐田区2011年至2019年火灾数据进行建模分析。运用DBSCAN聚类模型对火灾地点进行分类,结合层次分析法构建火灾风险评估验证模型,探讨聚类结果、火灾场景、火灾原因构建系统层次结构模型,综合得出风险评估结果。通过将聚类区域还原至百度地图,结合场景信息及层次分析法指标值对模型的有效性进行验证。结果表明:由于各区区域功能及地理位置不同,区域火灾风险值有明显差异,模型计算出的4个区域结果与实际火灾情况具有一致性。     

Effectiveness of a Regional Corridor in Connecting Two Florida Black Bear Populations

Abstract:  Corridors may mitigate the adverse effects of habitat fragmentation by restoring or maintaining connectivity between disjunct populations. The efficacy of corridors for large carnivores, however, has rarely been evaluated objectively. We used noninvasive sampling, microsatellite analysis, and population assignment tests to evaluate the effectiveness of a regional corridor in connecting two Florida black bear ( Ursus americanus floridanus ) populations (Osceola and Ocala). Bear movement was predominantly unidirectional, with a limited mixing of individuals from the two populations in one area of the corridor. We also documented bears in Osceola that were genetically assigned to Ocala and bears in Osceola that may be offspring from an Osceola-Ocala mating. Our results indicate that the Osceola-Ocala corridor is functional and provides a conduit for gene flow between these populations. Human development, however, may hinder the use of the Osceola-Ocala corridor by bears. The noninvasive sampling and genetic methods we used provide a means of evaluating corridor effectiveness that can help identify linkages necessary for maintaining metapopulation structure and population viability.     

A study on the Spatial Distribution of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Balance, and Regional Nitrogen Flow Through Crop Production

The spatial distribution patterns of the nitrogen and phosphorus input/intake amounts in crop production within two small basins are examined, based upon a cropping unit distribution map that is obtained from remote sensing data analysis. Firstly, we examine the availability and suitability of approaches to the spatial distribution analysis of cultivation patterns classified from material flow characteristics of crop production using seasonal remote-sensing data. Secondly, material flow units in crop production are grouped according to the cultivation patterns obtained from the remote-sensing data analysis. Consequently, the spatial patterns of the amounts of both nitrogen and phosphorus inputs/intakes through crop production on farmland are examined and their spatial distribution maps are prepared according to the material flow units. In addition, we developed a nitrogen flow and runoff model and the model is simulated based on the examination of the results of spatial distribution patterns of the material flow units. The annual nitrogen runoff from small catchments, where various crops are cultivated, varies from 2.7 kg ha^–1 year^–1 to 108 kg ha^–1 year^–1 and the annual balanced losses of nitrogen in small catchments varied from –30 kg ha^–1 year^–1 to 101 kg ha^–1 year^–1. Also, the monthly changes in soil nitrogen of each material flow unit is estimated at –55 kg ha^–1 as a maximum decrease and 114 kg ha^–1 as a maximum increase. These results indicate that the spatial distribution patterns of nutrient input and intake through agricultural activities should be considered when analyzing the material flows and nutritient movement in soil–water systems in rural areas for watershed environmental control and regional agricultural management.