垃圾渗滤液溶质运移的机理及数学模型

卫生填埋法是我国目前城市生活垃圾处理的主要手段.填埋法处理城市生活垃圾会产生大量污染物浓度高的渗滤液,若不加处理则会对周围环境水体产生二次污染,危害极大.为了控制和治理垃圾渗滤液,就需要对垃圾渗滤液的运移规律进行研究.以垃圾降解的生化反应机理为基础,综合考虑对流、弥散、扩散、吸附和有机物生物降解等作用,建立了垃圾渗滤液溶质运移的对流-弥散模型,并对其一维数学模型进行解析求解.     

The states of public opinion on the environment

State-level public opinion on the environment within the US is examined, using data from the General Social Survey (GSS) from 2000 to 2010. A Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP) approach is taken to estimate three different survey items on environmental issues at the US state level. This allows for a comparable understanding of state-level public opinion on environmental issues, which is then connected to economic, environmental, and political conditions, and representation in policy making. The findings indicate the MRP technique is a sophisticated way to make accurate estimations of state-level public opinion, and those estimates provide further insight into the shaping of public opinion and public policy.     

Mathematical Model for Pollution Source Identification in Rivers

Release of pollution into rivers is required to be handled with special consideration to environmental standards. For this purpose, it is essential to specify the contribution of each pollution source in contamination of water resources. In this study, a mathematical model is proposed for determining locations and concentration release histories of polluting point sources using measured downstream river concentrations via an inverse problem framework. The inverse solution is based on the integral equation obtained from applying the Green's function method on the one-dimensional advection-dispersion contaminant transport equation. Discretization of this integral equation results in a linear, over-determined and ill-posed system of algebraic equations that are solved by using the Tikhonov regularization method. Several examples and some real field data are investigated to illustrate the abilities of the proposed model. Results imply that the proposed method is effective and can identify the pollution sources in rivers with acceptable accuracy.     

Evaluating the efficiency of green vehicles and diesel vehicles

One of the major interests of governments in the area of environmental protection is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollutants’ emissions (HC, CO, NO_x, PM, and SO_x) from vehicles. This paper aims at evaluating the efficiency of green and diesel vehicles. Two hundred fifty vehicles were selected for comparison study. The results show that the efficiency of each type of vehicle hardly differed in 2008 and 2009, but the gap between green and diesel vehicles became significant in 2010–2012. The results also indicate that larger automotive companies and smaller green vehicles show higher efficiency in recent years, whereas the type of green vehicles and the origin of automotive companies are not significantly related to the efficiency score of green vehicles. These findings provide more information for understanding differences in green vehicles.     

Impact of psychological risk factors on disaster rescue operations: the case of Italian volunteers

This paper reports on research into the characteristics of emergency rescue workers, with a focus on psychological distress. We present the results of a study of volunteers from the Italian national civil protection programme. A questionnaire was administered to 2,576 subjects from all over Italy. Most respondents were men, mostly unemployed, whose average level of education was higher than that among most Italian volunteers. Many were poorly endowed with basic skills, with large differences according to geography. Many expected to convert their volunteer activities into permanent jobs. Using this data, we employed a logistical regression model to analyse the risk of low, moderate and severe psychological distress symptoms, including anxiety and panic attacks, during rescue operations. The results indicate that some rescuers are particularly vulnerable to distress. The highest risk factors pertained to volunteers from southern Italy whose training is inadequate, who have little experience of emergency work and who play subordinate roles in small teams that lack psychological support services.     

Formation of Disinfection Byproducts (DBPs) in Surface Water Sources: Differential Ultraviolet (UV) Absorbance Approach

Chlorination for drinking water forms various disinfection byproducts (DBPs) of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs). Chlorination has been attributed to the destruction of activated aromatic sites of the natural organic matter (NOM) predominantly at electron rich sites. Experiments with Istanbul surface waters showed that the magnitude of the decrease in the ultraviolet (UV) absorbance at 272 nm (UV₂₇₂) was an excellent indicator of destruction of these sites by chlorine. The main objective of the present study is to develop the differential UV₂₇₂ absorbance (ΔUV₂₇₂) related models for the prediction of the formation of THM, HAA, and their species in raw water samples from Terkos, Buyukcekmece, and Omerli lakes under different chlorination conditions. Significant factors affecting DBP formation in the raw waters were identified through numerical and graphical techniques. The R² values of the models varied between 0.94 and 0.97, indicating excellent predictive ability for THM₄ and HAA₉ in the raw waters. The models were validated using additional data. The results of this study concluded that addition of ΔUV₂₇₂ parameter into THM₄ and HAA₉ models make the prediction of these DBP compounds more precisely than those of DBP models developed in the past. A better understanding of these modeling systems will help the water treatment plant operators to minimize the DBP formation, providing a healthier and better drinking water quality as well as identifying strategies to improve water treatment and disinfection processes.     

跨国工程项目安全绩效与安全文化关系模型研究

为探讨跨国工程项目的安全文化构成及其影响绩效的机制,以巴基斯坦工程项目为调查对象,基于扎根理论提出包含管理层观念文化、作业层观念文化、制度文化、物质文化、安全行为及安全结果等6个结构变量的12个假设。运用AMOS软件,构建并验证了国外项目安全文化影响安全绩效的结构方程模型(SEM)。结果显示,管理层观念文化是影响安全绩效的最重要因素,安全制度文化也是相对重要的因素,而受到宗教文化影响的作业层观念文化则是改善安全绩效的难点。最后提出有利于我国跨国施工企业安全文化建设的建议。     

气体扩散数学模型在安全评价方面的应用

工业生产、储运过程涉及储存大量气态和液态的危险性物质,该类物质大都易燃易爆、有毒有害。民用燃料的输送和储藏,也涉及易燃易爆。气体或液体物质发生泄漏事故,可能对附近居民和环境造成极大的危害。气体物质一旦发生泄漏,很难将其限定在一定范围内,势必造成大面积的危害。因此,事故状态下有毒气体的扩散,是安全评价中灾害后果评价的重要内容。笔者通过梯度输送理论,建立了无风条件下气体扩散的动态模型。在限定容器中气体介质是中性气体的情况下,由于中性气体在扩散过程中各向同性,扩散方程获得了简化。进一步限定容器形状为最常见的圆柱形,确定了模型的边界条件,求出了该条件下扩散方程的解析解。开发的扩散模型建立的理论依据是梯度输送理论即单位时间内物质通过单位面积的输送的通量与浓度梯度成正比。同时对建立的模型在安全评价方面的应用进行了初探,结合实例提出了该模型的应用方向。     

基于半参数分析的电力需求预测算法

市场经济对电力需求预测提出了更高的要求。在简要介绍和评论以往国内外常用电力需求预测方法优缺点基础上,为了提高电力需求预测的准确度及预测方法的适应性,建立半参数回归模型预测电力需求。半参数回归模型分为线性和非线性两部分。线性部分反映了负荷预测可知的部分规律,非线性部分反映了负荷预测的不确定因素的影响。用偏残差方法估计半参数回归模型,估计结果由两步得到。首先估计线性参数部分,然后再估计非线性参数部分。通过示例计算,半参数回归模型对电力需求预测的估计误差数值小于二元线性回归法对电力需求预测的估计误差。结果表明:利用半参数回归法预测电力需求是一种预测精度高、计算容易、普适性强的算法。     

我国事故指标与经济社会发展指标多元回归分析

以安全生产相对指标工矿商贸十万就业人员生产安全事故死亡率为研究对象,通过文献调研分析,最终从经济发展、经济发展结构、经济活动水平和社会活动水平角度筛选出14个指标为观察对象,采用逐步多元回归分析法筛选出影响我国安全生产的主要经济社会发展指标为：第三产业增加值产值占GDP比重、第三产业就业人数占总就业人数的比重和固定资产投资增长速度,并建立了回归模型。应用弹性系数法对主要影响因素进行重要性排序,并推测工矿商贸就业人员十万人事故死亡率将保持持续下降的趋势。