On the Estimation of Dispersal Kernels from Individual Mark-Recapture Data

We present a new method for estimating a distribution of dispersal displacements (a dispersal kernel) from mark-recapture data. One conventional method of calculating the dispersal kernel assumes that the distribution of displacements are Gaussian (e.g. resulting from a diffusion process) and that individuals remain within sampled areas. The first assumption prohibits an analysis of dispersal data that do not exhibit the Gaussian distribution (a common situation); the second assumption leads to underestimation of dispersal distance because individuals that disperse outside of sampling areas are never recaptured. Our method eliminates these two assumptions. In addition, the method can also accommodate mortality during a sampling period. This new method uses integrodifference equations to express the probability of spatial mark-recapture data; associated dispersal, survival, and recapture parameters are then estimated using a maximum likelihood method. We examined the accuracy of the estimators by applying the method to simulated data sets. Our method suggests designs for future mark-recapture experiments. Received: January 2004 / Revised: July 2005     

耗散结构理论在土壤科学上应用途径的探索

本文根据耗散结构的基本理论，结合生产实践经验，提出了表征土壤肥力的非线性微分方程：＝（Ｋ－ｂ）ｘ－βｘ２Ｘ─土壤生物活性，ｔ─时间，Ｋ─生物繁殖系数，ｂ─生物死亡系数，β─生物饱和系数．解这个并不复杂的非线性微分方程，便可知道土壤是处于热力学分枝，还是耗散结构分枝．这对研究土壤肥力的动态变化、土壤肥力的分类、土壤的管理、土壤退化的防止等方面有着无法预测的应用前景．     

An analytical solution of the advection-diffusion equation considering non-local turbulence closure

Atmospheric air pollution turbulent fluxes can be assumed to be proportional to the mean concentration gradient. This assumption, along with the equation of continuity, leads to the advection-diffusion equation. Moreover, large eddies are able to mix scalar quantities in a manner that is counter to the local gradient. We present a general solution of a two-dimension steady state advection-diffusion equation, considering non-local turbulence closure using the General Integral Laplace Transform Technique. We show some examples of applications of the new solution with different vertical diffusion parameterisations.     

上海新港河道耗氧特性研究及其综合整治措施

通过实验室试验测定,得出了上海市新港河道水体和底泥的耗氧特性曲线,分析了水体和底泥耗氧的阶段历时、阶段耗氧特性及动力学过程.在缺乏河道水质模型的情况下,利用耗氧特性曲线可以估算各个阶段的耗氧量和河道的总耗氧量,为河道充氧设备的选择提供一定的理论指导.通过计算,上海新港河道的总耗氧量约为75.7kg/d.上海宏成实业发展有限公司采用充氧曝气、投加微生物、种植水生植物等措施对河道进行了治理,实践表明,这些措施可以使新港河道的水质有明显的改善.     

Evaluating non-equilibrium solute transport in small soil columns

Displacement studies on leaching of bromide and two pesticides (atrazine and isoproturon) were conducted under unsaturated steady state flow conditions in 24 small undisturbed soil columns (5.7 cm in diameter and 10 cm long) each collected from two sites differing in soil structure and organic carbon content in North Germany. There were large and irregular variabilities in the characteristics of both soils, as well as in the shapes of breakthrough curves (BTCs) of different columns, including some with early breakthrough and increased tailing, qualitatively indicating the presence of preferential flow. It was estimated that one preferential flow column (PFC) at site A, and four at site B, contributed, respectively to 11% and 58% of the accumulated leached fraction and to more than 80% of the maximum observed standard deviation (SD) in the field-scale concentration and mass flux of pesticides at two sites. The bromide BTCs of two sites were analyzed with the equilibrium convection-dispersion equation (CDE) and a non-equilibrium two-region/mobile-immobile model. Transport parameters of these models for individual BTCs were determined using a curve fitting program, CXTFIT, and by the time moment method. For the CDE based equilibrium model, the mean values of retardation factor, R, considered separately for all columns, PFCs or non-preferential flow columns (NPFCs) were comparable for the two methods; significant differences were observed in the values of dispersion coefficients of two sites using the two estimation methods. It was inferred from the estimated parameters of non-equilibrium model that 5-12% of water at site A, and 12% at site B, was immobile during displacement in NPFCs. The corresponding values for PFCs of two sites were much larger, ranging from 25% to 51% by CXTFIT and from 24% to 72% by the moment method, suggesting the role of certain mechanisms other than immobile water in higher degrees of non-equilibrium in these columns. Peclet numbers in PFCs of both sites were consistently smaller than five, indicating the inadequacy of the non-equilibrium model to incorporate the effect of all forms of non-equilibrium in PFCs. Overall, the BTCs of individual NPFCs, PFCs and of field average concentration at the two sites were better reproduced with parameters obtained from CXTFIT than by the moment method. The moment method failed to capture the peak concentrations in PFCs, but tended to describe the desorption and tail branches of BTCs better than the curve fitting approach.     

咖啡因在河流沉积物中吸附的影响因素及模拟研究

咖啡因是一种在环境中广泛存在的药物,其在水系环境的迁移和分布主要受到吸附行为的影响.在实验室条件下,近似模拟自然河流水/泥界面,应用中心复合实验设计,考察了温度、pH、有机质含量和转速等对咖啡因吸附的影响;利用实验所得数据,分别拟合和验证了基于线性方程和神经网络的咖啡因吸附模型,通过对比拟合和验证结果得到适用于自然河流的咖啡因吸附模型.实验结果表明,咖啡因在沉积物中的吸附呈现先快速后缓慢的过程,30 h内吸附比例超过90%;咖啡因的吸附是放热反应,低温有利于咖啡因的吸附;而转速增大能促进咖啡因的吸附反应;pH和有机质含量的影响较小.模型模拟结果表明,两种模型均能较好地拟合吸附实验结果,但神经网络模型的拟合程度和精度均优于线性方程模型;且交叉验证结果表明,利用不同组数据进行训练,神经网络模型均取得了优于线性方程的拟合结果.因此,在所考察的因素和浓度范围内,神经网络模型较好地预测了自然河流沉积物中咖啡因的吸附行为.     

活性炭纤维对水中酚类化合物的吸附特性

研究了活性炭纤维(actived carbon fiber,ACF)对模拟废水中苯酚、对氯苯酚、对硝基苯酚的吸附特性.采用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)对ACF的表面结构进行了表征.通过静态吸附试验,采用吸附热力学探讨了ACF对苯酚、对氯苯酚、对硝基苯酚模拟废水的机制,计算了有关的热力学函数.结果表明,ACF对它们的吸附速率很快,在酸性条件下吸附效果较好,相同条件下,去除率是苯酚(87%)<对氯苯酚(96%)<对硝基苯酚(99%).ACF对这3种物质的吸附都是自发的放热反应,属于物理吸附.吸附等温线能用Dubinin-Radushkevieh方程较好地拟合.     

基于农户层次的陕北黄土丘陵区农业生态经济系统耦合关系研究

农业生态经济系统耦合是一个复杂的过程,是潜变量与潜变量、潜变量与可测变量及可测变量之间相互作用的结果,结构方程模型的建立很好地描述了这一复杂关系。通过对吴起县、安塞县和宝塔区共建的中尺度生态农业建设试验示范区、米脂县等3个典型区域所代表的黄土丘陵区及其各个区域农业生态经济系统结构方程模型的建立与运算,结果表明:在"退耕还林还草工程"等外力作用下,农业生态经济系统运行模式基本揭示了农业产业与农业资源相互耦合这一本质规律,但现状耦合模式并未充分利用农业资源,系统耦合效果较低。农业产业与农业资源对系统耦合的影响系数分别为0.54和0.16,农业产业和农业资源之间的相关系数只有0.28,即农业资源没有很好地支撑产业的发展,导致农业生态经济系统耦合效果不明显,存在着局部相悖的态势,潜伏了林草资源与其相关产业链网缺失现象。为此,需要强化农业产业与农业资源的互动过程,特别要发展林草及其相关产业,促进林草资源的有效利用,促使系统耦合效果的不断提高,增加经济效益。     

煤田火区塌陷区渗透系数分布研究

通过分析煤田火区地表下沉量和破碎岩块孔隙率的关系,对地表下沉量进行测量,分析计算得到火区破碎岩块孔隙率的分布方程。在实验室中测量不同孔隙率破碎岩块的渗透系数,拟合建立渗透系数和孔隙率的关系方程,利用求得的关系方程和通过地表下沉量测量法得到的孔隙率分布方程,求得煤田火区塌陷区破碎岩块的渗透系数分布方程。