Assessing Retrospective National Water Model Streamflow with Respect to Droughts and Low Flows in the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow monitoring in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is essential to ensure diverse needs are met, especially during periods of drought or low flow. Existing stream gage networks, however, provide a limited record of past and current streamflow. Modeled streamflow products with more complete spatial and temporal coverage (including the National Water Model [NWM]), have primarily focused on flooding, rather than sustained drought or low flow conditions. Objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate historical performance of the NWM streamflow estimates (particularly with respect to droughts and seasonal low flows) and (2) identify characteristics relevant to model inputs and suitability for future applications. Comparisons of retrospective flows from the NWM to observed flows from the United States Geological Survey stream gage network over 22 years in the CRB reveal a tendency for underestimating low flow frequency, locations with low flows, and the number of years with low flows. We found model performance to be more accurate for the Upper CRB and at sites with higher precipitation, snow percent, baseflow index, and elevations. Underestimation of low flows and variable model performance has important implications for future applications: inaccurate evaluations of historical low flows and droughts, and less reliable performance outside of specific watershed/stream conditions. This highlights characteristics on which to focus future model development efforts.     

Tracking changes in the global impacts of metal concentrate acquisition for the metals industry in Finland

This article considers the environmental impacts and the governance framework of the domestic and international supply of iron, zinc, copper and nickel concentrates smelted and refined in Finland. The metals industry in the country is heavily dependent on imported concentrates, and the research is thus focused on defining the level of impacts related to mining and mineral processing abroad, and the change in the impacts between 2000 and 2010. The estimations of environmental impacts are based on waste minerals and CO_2eq emissions, and the quality of governance in the set of indicators measuring different aspects of governance. The total amount of waste minerals and CO_2eq emissions related to metal concentrates decreased over the ten-year period. At the same time, the quality of governance improved in all concentrate groups except nickel. Ore grade, mine type and transportation distance appear to be the most influential factors on environmental impacts. The results suggest that the country of origin can have a noticeable effect on the environmental impacts and the quality of governance of the mining and processing of metal concentrates.     

Assessing the shelf life of cost‐efficient conservation plans for species at risk across gradients of agricultural land use

High costs of land in agricultural regions warrant spatial prioritization approaches to conservation that explicitly consider land prices to produce protected‐area networks that accomplish targets efficiently. However, land‐use changes in such regions and delays between plan design and implementation may render optimized plans obsolete before implementation occurs. To measure the shelf life of cost‐efficient conservation plans, we simulated a land‐acquisition and restoration initiative aimed at conserving species at risk in Canada's farmlands. We accounted for observed changes in land‐acquisition costs and in agricultural intensity based on censuses of agriculture taken from 1986 to 2011. For each year of data, we mapped costs and areas of conservation priority designated using Marxan. We compared plans to test for changes through time in the arrangement of high‐priority sites and in the total cost of each plan. For acquisition costs, we measured the savings from accounting for prices during site selection. Land‐acquisition costs and land‐use intensity generally rose over time independent of inflation (24–78%), although rates of change were heterogeneous through space and decreased in some areas. Accounting for spatial variation in land price lowered the cost of conservation plans by 1.73–13.9%, decreased the range of costs by 19–82%, and created unique solutions from which to choose. Despite the rise in plan costs over time, the high conservation priority of particular areas remained consistent. Delaying conservation in these critical areas may compromise what optimized conservation plans can achieve. In the case of Canadian farmland, rapid conservation action is cost‐effective, even with moderate levels of uncertainty in how to implement restoration goals.     

西南技术工程研究所, 重庆 400039

目的建立敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差的年极值拟合模型。方法根据当地气象站台温度和相对湿度日记时值数据,连续统计若干年的三要素年极值,采用极大似然法建立各要素年极值的Gumbel模型,同时讨论值域有界类气象因素极值再现期的定义域。结果给出了敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差年极值的Gumbel模型参数。结论敦煌地区各气象因素Gumbel模型位置参数和尺度参数,温度极大值分别为35.193,1.072℃,温度极小值分别为-20.085,1.945℃,相对湿度极大值为95.254%,2.471%,相对湿度极小值为5.837%,1.505%,日温差极大值为20.676,0.777℃,日温差极小值为1.398,0.593℃;相对湿度极大值、相对湿度极小值和日温差极小值的再现期定义域分别为6.3,47和10年。     

基于氮平衡原理对南方污水处理厂中试脱氮工艺调控策略研究

通过建立A2/O工艺中氮的物料平衡方程,预测不同进水TN条件下,如何调控污泥回流比和混合液回流比使出水氮达到国家一级A标准;然后根据预测的运行参数,调试武汉市龙王嘴污水处理厂中试模拟装置,进行工况验证.结果表明,在进水TN低于30 mg·L-1,温度高于15℃时,不需要混合液回流即可实现良好的脱氮效果;在进水TN高于30 mg·L-1,温度在10~15℃之间时,增加混合液回流和DO可以提高脱氮效果,但当温度远远低于10℃时,必须同时提高混合液回流比来保证系统出水.该方法能较好依据水质状况通过调控回流比实现较好的脱氮效果.     

NON-ZERO LOWER LIMIT IN LOW FLOW FREQUENCY ANALYSIS?1

ABSTRACT: The implications of fitting distributions with non-zero lower limits to low flow data are examined. The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is fitted to annual minimum flow series from 60 long term stations in Canada. The relations between the estimated lower limit and three sampling variables (skewness, smallest, and largest observations) were investigated. The lower limit strongly depends on the sample skewness; it varies directly with the sample skewness, which in turn is highly influenced by the largest observation. For a given skewness, the value of the estimated lower limit is determined by the value of the smallest observation. Therefore, the lower limit cannot be accurately determined, and the resulting low flow estimates will be either too small or too high.     

Copula-Based Bivariate Return Period Analysis and Its Implication to Hydrological Design Event

In univariate frequency analysis, the return period of an event has a one-to-one correspondence with its characteristic value, and the response of the hydraulic structure to hydrological load expressed by the hydrological event is monotonic. Thus, the design criteria of the hydraulic structure can be equivalently represented by the return period of the hydrological event, and consequently, design event-based design parameters evaluated have been widely used in practical engineering. However, the monotonic correspondence between the return period of the hydrological event and the response of the hydraulic structure does not exist in the multivariate context, and hydrological load with a larger joint return period does not always produce a more unsafe response. Misunderstandings of concepts of return periods of hydrological event, and estimation of hydrological design events usually take place in multivariate frequency analysis. This study theoretically derives the relations between different types of joint return periods, joint return period and its marginal return periods, the occurrence of bivariate extreme events and their return periods, and then the theoretical framework is tested. Results from the case contribute to the understanding of bivariate return periods of hydrological event, and the results demonstrate that design criteria cannot be equivalently represented by joint return periods of hydrological load, and design parameters of the hydraulic structure should not be determined by multivariate hydrological design events.     

CONSTRAINTS IN WATER MANAGEMENT ON AGRICULTURAL LANDS1

ABSTRACT Whether the goal is minimizing water quality degradation in receiving streams or maximizing agricultural production on existing croplands; the solutions are identical - improved water management practices. Technology has succeeded in developing feasible solutions to improving irrigation water management, but the law has been slow to encourage or direct implementation. The villain of the western United States water problem is the property right concept of the appropriation doctrine. Improving water management also implies organizational improvements. Also, the so-called “human factor” involves questions of inefficiency and ineffectiveness, that when examined under the criteria of efficacy, may dictate a policy of continuing present practices in certain localities or regions with little technological intervention. The present effort for improving water quality management implies, therefore, a manyfold attack aimed at increasing project irrigation efficiency and effectiveness, under the larger rubric of efficacy and the achievement of larger social goals.     

SURFACE WATER RESOURCES OF ST. JOHNS RIVER,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: The St. Johns River basin is the largest watershed entirely within the State of Florida, and is one of the few northward flowing rivers in the United States. The river basin contains 11,431 square miles, of which 9,430 square miles are drained by the river and its tributaries. The remainder drains into the Atlantic Ocean or the Intracoastal Waterway. Its largest sub-basin is the Oklawaha River basin, which has a drainage area of 2,870 square miles. Ground elevations range from sea level to 200 feet above mean sea level in the main river basin and as high as 300 feet above mean sea level in the Oklawaha River basin. This study was designed to investigate the surface water resources of the St. Johns River and the existing consumptive uses. The analysis revealed that the river is an extremely large and valuable resource which has been under-utilized and could play a much stronger role in serving the needs of the people in the basin.     

A HYBRID COMPUTER PROGRAM FOR PREDICTING THE CHEMICAL QUALITY OF IRRIGATION RETURN FLOWS1

ABSTRACT. A hybrid computer program was developed to predict the water and salt outflow from a river basin in which irrigation is the major user of water. The model combines a chemical model which predicts the quality of water percolated through a soil profile with a general hydrologic model. The chemical model considers the reactions that occur in the soil, including the exchange of calcium, magnesium, and sodium cations on the soil complex, and the dissolution and precipitation of gypsum and lime. The chemical composition of the outflow is a function of these chemical processes within the soil, plus the blending of undiverted inflows, evaporation, transpiration, and the mixing of sub surface return flows with groundwater. The six common ions of western waters, namely calcium (Ca⁺⁺), magnesium (Mg⁺⁺), sodium (Na⁺), sulfate (SO₄⁼), chloride (Cl^?), and bicarbonate (HCO₃^?) were considered in the study. Total dissolved solids (TDS) outflow was obtained by adding the individual ions. The overall model operates on a monthly time unit. The model was tested on a portion of the Little Bear River basin in northern Utah. The model successfully simulated measured outflows of water and each of the six ions for a 24-month period. The usefulness of the model was demonstrated by a management study of the prototype system. For example, preliminary results indicated that the available water supply could be used to irrigate additional land without unduly increasing the salt outflow from the basin. With minor adjustments the model can be applied to other hydrologic areas.