厄尔尼诺事件对河南省降水的可能影响

本文采用小波变换方法分析了近50年来赤道东太平洋月海温距平序列和河南省月降水量距平序列的多层次时间尺度结构，对厄尔尼诺事件和河南降水的周期变化规律进行了对比分析，并讨论了厄尔尼诺对河南降水的可能影响。结果表明，厄尔尼诺事件对河南降水有一定程度的影响；表现为厄尔尼诺年大多对应河南雨涝年，而反厄尔诺年大多对应干旱年；NINO海区SST的冷暖结构和河南降水的旱涝变化之间具有较好的对应关系，而且两者都存在准2年和4－8年的周期变化。     

暴雨泥石流暴发的准周期性探讨

泥石流是山区的主要灾害类型，其发生条件和暴发规律尚在探索之中，泥石流过程本质上并不是纯随机事件，地形坡度，暴雨强度和风化岩土物质积累的组合决定了泥石流的规模，人们推测其暴发具有周期性，但并没有得到直接的证据。作者从山坡松散物质积累条件和泥石流暴发的概率分布出发，在考虑其发生规模的前提下，论证了泥石流暴发风险具有周期性，并且给出了其风险度及暴大风险重现期的估算公式，理论研究和调查结果表明，泥石流间隔期越长，其发长的规模将越大，这在制定山区防灾对策中应该特别注意。     

Influence of organic loading on an anaerobic sequencing biofilm batch reactor (ASBBR) as a function of cycle period and wastewater concentration

The effect of organic loading on the performance of a mechanically stirred anaerobic sequencing biofilm batch reactor (ASBBR) has been investigated, by varying influent concentration and cycle period. For microbial immobilization 1-cm polyurethane foam cubes were used. An agitation rate of 500 rpm and temperature of 30+/-2 degrees C were employed. Organic loading rates (OLR) of 1.5-6.0gCODl(-1)d(-1) were applied to the 6.3-l reactor treating 2.0 l synthetic wastewater in 8 and 12-h batches and at concentrations of 500-2000mgCODl(-1), making it possible to analyze the effect of these two operation variables for the same organic loading range. Microbial immobilization on inert support maintained approximately 60 gTVS in the reactor. Filtered sample organic COD removal efficiencies ranged from 73 to 88% for organic loading up to 5.4gCODl(-1)d(-1). For higher organic loading (influent concentration of 2000mgCODl(-1) and 8-h cycle) the system presented total volatile acids accumulation, which reduced organics removal efficiency down to 55%. In this way, ASBBR with immobilized biomass was shown to be efficient for organic removal at organic loading rates of up to 5.4gCODl(-1)d(-1) and to be more stable to organic loading variations for 12-h cycles. This reactor might be an alternative to intermittent systems as it possesses greater operational flexibility. It might also be an alternative to batch systems suspended with microorganisms since it eliminates both the uncertainties regarding granulation and the time necessary for biomass sedimentation, hence reducing the total cycle period.     

Forced migration, processes of return and livelihood construction among pastoralists in northern Sudan

The Hawaweer, a nomadic, pastoralist group in northern Sudan, were seriously affected by the drought in the Sahel during the mid-1980s. Their experience illustrates the connection between internally displaced people, normal mobility, forced migration, dilemmas and opportunities of return and how new livelihoods can be successfully constructed based on traditional rights, strong local institutions and external resources. Some displaced Hawaweer got the chance to return to their homeland as new livelihood opportunities were established; others did not get this opportunity nor would they have returned if they had been given the chance. In both situations, the processes of displacement and return had an impact on the sense of belonging and identity.     

Critical considerations for future action during the second commitment period: A small islands' perspective

If the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be achieved, Parties must commit themselves to meeting meaningful long‐term targets that, based on current knowledge, would minimize the possibility of irreversible climate change. Current indications are that a global mean temperature rise in excess of 2–3 °C would enhance the risk of destabilizing the climate system as we know it, and possibly lead to catastrophic change such as a shutdown of the deep ocean circulation, and the disintegration of the West Arctic Ice Sheet. Observations have shown that for many small island developing States (SIDS), life‐sustaining ecosystems such as coral reefs, already living near the limit of thermal tolerance, are highly climate‐sensitive, and can suffer severe damage from exposure to sea temperatures as low as 1 °C above the seasonal maximum. Other natural systems (e.g., mangroves) are similarly susceptible to relatively low temperature increases, coupled with small increments of sea level rise. Economic and social sectors, including agriculture and human health, face similar challenges from the likely impacts of projected climate change. In light of known thresholds, this paper presents the view that SIDS should seek support for a temperature cap not exceeding 1.5–2.0 °C above the pre‐industrial mean. It is argued that a less stringent post‐Kyoto target would frustrate achievement of the UNFCCC objective. The view is expressed that all countries which emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases should commit to binding reduction targets in the second commitment period, but that targets for developing countries should be less stringent than those agreed for developed countries. Such an arrangement would be faithful to the principles of equity and would ensure that the right of Parties to attain developed country status would not be abrogated.     

IRRIGATION WATER AND SURFACE RUNOFF QUALITY AND QUANTITY IN CARSON VALLEY,NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: Best management practices for irrigated agriculture are not restricted to the control of sediments in the return flow. Salts and nutrient loading and oxygen depletion are also of environmental concern. Since knowledge of waste loading returned from agricultural irrigation is limited, specific characterization of irrigatin and runoff water quality should precede corrective measures. In 1974, 1975 and 1976, four study sites with in a 50,000-acre irrigated area were monitored to characterize the quantity and quality of irrigation water and surface return flow. Simple correlatins among constituents showed strong relationships among BOD, TP, PO₄,-P, and No₃-N. Least significant difference tests among seasonal means of change-in-load per irrigation showed that only TDS and PO₄-P were significant.     

IMPROVING IRRIGATION RETURN FLOW QUALITY WITH A WATER RENTAL MARKET1

ABSTRACT: Current policies for correcting the problem of irrigation return flow pollution tend to attack the symptoms of the problem, rather than its cause. The present institutional arrangement for allocating irrigation water is seen as the source of the problem. This paper examines the water quality benefits of altering the institutional arrangement to allow for irrigation water transfers through a rental market. It is conceptualized that by creating a water rental market an opportunity cost would be associated with the use of irrigation water such that profit maximizing farmers would be induced to use his water supply more efficiently and rent the surplus to other irrigators, thus reducing return flow pollution. It is shown that a water rental market could increase water quality in the Yakima River in southcentral Washington by 31 percent as well as increase farm incomes and crop production.     

A rate of return analysis for public forestry in Ulster

In this paper a rate of return analysis is carried out on public forestry in Northern Ireland. Analysis is based on the results obtained in two very different locations: a 100-hectare acquisition in the western part of the province where the quality of land is generally poor and a 10-hectare plantation in the east where soil and other conditions are reasonably good. The species in question is Sitka spruce, an evergreen variety which is planted for commercial purposes throughout the UK. Rate of return figures obtained here indicate that even with narrow commercial considerations, forestry in Northern Ireland is a sound venture and should expand rapidly to moderate the timber deficiency which exists in the province as well as in the UK and the EEC.     

岩溶塌陷倾向性等级的KPCA-SVM预测模型

为了快速、有效地预测岩溶塌陷倾向性等级,在统计分析大量观测实例的基础上,选取岩性系数、岩体结构系数、地下水系数、覆盖层系数、地形地貌系数和环境条件系数作为特征指标。利用核主成分分析(KPCA)方法在高维空间提取岩溶塌陷影响因子的主成分,将获取的主成分作为支持向量机(SVM)的特征向量,建立基于KPCA的岩溶塌陷倾向性等级的SVM预测模型。将12组观测数据作为学习样本对模型进行训练。采用回代估计法进行回检,误判率为0。利用训练好的模型对2组待判样本进行预测。结果表明:经KPCA后指标个数减少,相关性降低,SVM运算的复杂度降低。用该模型所得预测结果的准确率为100%。     

2014年春节期间北京市空气质量分析

对2014年1月30日(除夕)13时到1月31日(初一)12时期间北京市官园、怀柔和良乡监测站的CO、SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5浓度及PM2.5化学组分和能见度等监测数据进行分析,探讨了污染源减排和烟花爆竹燃放对北京市空气质量的叠加影响.研究发现,烟花爆竹的集中燃放会在短时间内造成严重的大气污染,其中,对PM10、PM2.5和SO2的影响最为显著.官园、怀柔和良乡监测站在1月31日凌晨1时的PM10浓度值分别为377.8、253.2和627.0μg·m-3,分别为1、2月份平均值的2.4、2.0和3.6倍;PM2.5浓度值分别为292.0、184.7和522.4μg·m-3,分别为1、2月份平均值的2.1、1.5和3.2倍.烟花爆竹的燃放对PM2.5化学组分中的K+、SO2-4、Cl-、Mg2+和Na+等影响最大,1月31日凌晨1时这5种离子在PM2.5浓度中占的比例高达92.1%.烟花爆竹的燃放造成1月31日凌晨1时监测中心和良乡的能见度分别降至2422 m和3591 m,是1、2月份能见度均值的22.9%和32.8%.2010—2014年"春节半月"期间官园、怀柔和良乡PM10平均浓度大多低于冬季均值和年均值,2014年"春节半月"这3个监测站的PM2.5浓度相比于冬季均值分别下降了33.3%、20.6%和39.2%,表明污染源减排对空气质量的正影响非常明显.