湖库富营养化指标的高频监测方法研究

湖泊和水库中蓝藻水华等富营养化灾害的形成往往只需几天的时间,因此,在富营养化水体的水质管理上需要进行高频的水质指标监测.本研究以新安江水库(千岛湖)为例,基于水质传感器探头现场获取的水质参数,采用多元逐步回归分析方法,获得总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)、叶绿素a(Chl)、营养状态指数(TSI)、透明度(SD)等指示湖库富营养化状况的关键水质指标与水体藻蓝素(PC)、浊度(TURB)、有色可溶性有机物(CDOM)、电导率(EC)、溶解氧(DO)等现场水质参数之间的定量关系,以满足高频监测湖泊富营养化关键指标的需要.结果表明,2013年调查期间,新安江水库各湖区水质差异较大,调查的54个点位中,SD介于1.10~8.60 m之间,TN介于0.78~1.68mg·L-1之间,TP介于7.90~71.1μg·L-1之间,具有较为宽泛的代表性.相关分析表明,CDOM与TN、TP、CODMn、Chl、TSI、SD均存在显著的相关关系,可以作为新安江水库水质富营养化状况的一个重要自动监测指标;TURB与TP、Chl、SD、TSI之间也显著相关,PC则与TN、CODMn相关,而探头获得的叶绿素浓度值(Chls)与TN、SD显著负相关.通过与实测值比较表明,统计分析建立的富营养化指标多元回归方程估算值与实测值吻合度较高,能够满足水体管理的需要.本研究为湖泊和水库的富营养化灾害监控、预警提供了理论依据.     

基于多因素灰色预测模型的生活污水量预测研究

生活污水作为城市水环境的主要污染源,进行生活污水排放量的预测是十分必要的.污水排放量预测方法有多种,不同的方法有各自不同的特点.为提高预测精度,采用灰色预测与多元线性回归相结合的方法,综合各种因素建立多因素灰色预测模型.并以人口和人均纯收入作为影响因素,将该模型应用于苏州横泾街道生活污水排放量的趋势预测中.结果表明：该模型能反映系统的实际情况,建模精度高,平均相对误差只有0.069 8％,值得在污水排放预测中推广应用.     

地形环境因素对塔河林业局人为森林火灾发生的影响

应用1974年—2009年间人为火的空间地理坐标,结合研究地的基础地理信息及矢量化林相图,应用ArcGIS10.0中的空间分析工具和SPSS19.0的逻辑斯蒂回归模型深入分析地形环境因素对人为火发生的影响。研究结果表明"到铁路距离"对人为火的影响显著,其次,在1∶1和1∶3选取随机点条件下人为火发生分别与"优势树种"和"林型"显著相关。本文研究显示在运用"随机点"方法进行相关性分析时,随机点选取数量对模型拟合结果有一定影响。     

基于生理信号的驾驶疲劳综合指标试验研究

研究驾驶过程中随着疲劳的产生驾驶员生理信号的变化规律,提取反映驾驶疲劳程度的综合指标。采用驾驶模拟器对20名被试进行驾驶模拟试验,用MP150多导生理仪实时采集并记录驾驶员在60 min驾驶任务过程中的心电信号、脑电信号、肌肉电阻信号、皮肤温度信号和呼吸频率信号。运用R软件对数据进行线性回归分析,对比一般回归分析,逐步线性回归分析克服了一般回归分析许多变量不显著的缺点,得到了最优的驾驶综合指标方程,确定了与各项指标相关的驾驶疲劳评价综合指标,并通过3名被试模拟驾驶试验验证了综合指标作为评价驾驶疲劳的有效性。     

A Spatially Explicit Model for Mapping Headwater Streams

Headwater streams are the primary sources of water in a drainage network and serve as a critical hydrologic link between the surrounding landscape and larger, downstream surface waters. Many states, including North Carolina, regulate activity in and near headwater streams for the protection of water quality and aquatic resources. A fundamental tool for regulatory management is an accurate representation of streams on a map. Limited resources preclude field mapping every headwater stream and its origin across a large region. It is more practical to develop a model for headwater streams based on a sample of field data that can then be extrapolated to a larger area of interest. The North Carolina Division of Water Quality has developed a cost‐effective method for modeling and mapping the location, length, and flow classification (intermittent and perennial) of headwater streams. We used a multiple logistic regression approach that combined field data and terrain derivatives for watersheds located in the Triassic Basins ecoregion. Field data were collected using a standard methodology for identifying headwater streams and origins. Terrain derivatives were generated from digital elevation models interpolated from bare‐earth Light Detection and Range data. Model accuracies greater than 80% were achieved in classifying stream presence and absence, stream length and perennial stream length, but were not as consistent in predicting intermittent stream length.     

哈尔滨市AQI与空气污染物的相关分析研究

空气质量问题已成为民众关注的热点问题.选取哈尔滨市2014年-2015年AQI日报数据,分别分析了供暖期和非供暖期PM2.5、PM10、CO、SO2、NO2、O3六种主要空气污染物与AQI的相关性,结果表明,AQI与6个主要污染物间呈显著性相关.同时建立了供暖期和非供暖期AQI与主要空气污染物的多元线性回归模型,结果表明,CO对AQI起着主要作用.因此,提高供暖过程中煤炭燃烧效率,可有效削减空气中CO的浓度,对于改善空气质量起着至关重要的作用.     

旅游地农户生计资本评估与生计策略选择——以海螺沟景区为例

旅游地可持续发展需要重点关注当地居民生计的可持续。以海螺沟景区为案例地,基于可持续生计框架构建了适用的生计资本评估指标体系,量化识别了景区农户可持续的生计方式,明确了影响两类脆弱性农户生计策略选择的主要因素。结果表明：在研究区六种生计方式中,采用均衡兼收型和旅游主营型策略的农户其生计资本水平最高,而传统务农型和务工型农户生计资本水平最低。不同生计策略类型的农户在空间上集聚分布。缺乏金融资本是影响传统务农型和务工型农户选择均衡兼收型生计策略的主要因素,而物质资本和社会资本的缺乏则对他们选择旅游主营型生计策略有显著的影响。此外,海拔、距公路和核心景点的距离也对农户生计策略的选择有重要影响。     

Modelling air temperature gradients across managed small streams in western Washington

Leaving riparian strips on both sides of a stream is widely accepted to be an effective management approach in sustaining the valuable functions of stream and riparian ecosystems. The authors' overall objective is to provide microclimatic information for assessing the effectiveness of these strips. During the summer of 1993 and 1994, air temperatures were collected across 20 small, buffered streams in western Washington, USA, including five streams sampled before and after harvesting of the forest. These data were statistically analysed to examine the effects of adjacent harvesting with preservation of 16–72 m riparian forest strips. Regression models were developed to predict air temperatures at the stream and buffer edges, the difference between two locations, and seasonal changes. The authors found: (1) clearcutting in winter 1993/94 increased air temperature on the stream by up to 4°C, and changes in temperature variability from the stream to the upland, measured by coefficient of variation (CV), were significantly higher after harvesting; (2) forest buffers provided minimal protection for stream air temperature during the middle of summer (July) but were more effective early and late in the season; (3) buffer width was not a significant variable in predicting stream air temperature, suggesting that even a 72 m buffer was not sufficient to maintain a stream environment because of greater depth of edge influences.1998 Academic Press     

对火电厂粉煤灰平衡湿含量的试验和分析

对粉煤灰的平衡湿含量在各影响因素下进行了试验研究 ,并且利用半经验公式对实验数据进行了回归 ,得到了较好的拟合效果 ;为相关的理论及试验研究提供了计算公式及实验数据