东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅱ)——逐步回归预测方法

利用1960-2005年74类大气环流资料,从玉米播种期的5月开始到8月,逐月滚动建立了东北3省典型站玉米热量指数的逐步回归模型.各月模型都能较好地预测该区玉米生长季内的热量状况.检验结果表明,通过运用滚动预报的方法,可以有效地提高预测玉米生长季内热量指数的准确率.     

基于遥感和GIS的赤水河水质对流域土地利用的响应研究

利用2009年TM影像和11个断面的水质监测数据,同时在缓冲区和子流域尺度上,分析了赤水河流域内土地利用方式与水质指标（溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮）之间的相关关系,并建立水质对土地利用结构的空间响应模型。由相关性分析得：从缓冲区尺度到子流域尺度,建设用地与氨氮的相关性由显著正相关变为高度正相关,相关系数达到0836;与高锰酸盐指数的相关性则由普通正相关变为显著正相关,相关系数为0776。耕地与高锰酸盐指数的相关性由显著正相关增加为高度正相关,相关系数达到0913;与氨氮的相关系数也增加到0782;而耕地与溶解氧则由缓冲区尺度的一般负相关变为子流域尺度的显著负相关,相关系数达0609。在缓冲区尺度上,林地与氨氮、高锰酸盐指数呈负相关,相关程度总体上随着缓冲半径的增大而增大;而当研究尺度为依自然属性划分的子流域时,林地与氨氮呈现出显著负相关,相关系数达到0673;与高锰酸盐指数呈现出高度负相关,相关系数达到0822;且在子流域尺度上林地对溶解氧的“汇”的作用才充分表现出来,相关系数达0718。研究结果表明：赤水河流域土地利用方式对水质有重要影响。赤水河流域内的城镇建设用地和耕地对流域水质有着严重的负面影响,承载在其上的城市生活、工业污水和农业面源污染(种养殖)是河流水质污染的重要污染源。林地对流域的水质污染有重要的缓解作用。总体上,各水质参数与土地利用类型间的相关性在子流域和缓冲区两种尺度下表现出一致的规律,但这种相关性在子流域尺度下表现的更为显著。研究成果可为赤水河流域的水污染防治、土地利用方式优化提供科学依据,并为同类研究提供借鉴     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Unified methodology for site-characterization and sampling of highway runoff

Hydrology, roadway traffic conditions, and atmospheric deposition are three essential data categories for the planning and implementation of highway-runoff monitoring and characterization programs. Causal variables pertaining to each data category could be site specific but have been shown to correlate with runoff pollutant loads. These data categories were combined to derive statistical relationships for characterization and prioritization of the respective pollutant loads at highway runoff sites. Storm runoff data of total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solid (TDS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and total phosphorus (TP) collected from three highway sites in Charlotte, North Carolina, USA, were used to illustrate the development of site-specific highway-runoff pollutant loading models. This unified methodology provides a basis for initial assessment of the pollutant-constituent loads from highway runoff using hydrologic component variables. Improved reliability is achievable when additional traffic and/or atmospheric component variables are incorporated into the basic hydrologic regression model. In addition, operational guidance is suggested for implementing highway-runoff monitoring programs that are subject to sampling and resources constraints.     

Source apportionment and source/sink relationships of PAHs in the coastal atmosphere of Chicago and Lake Michigan

Multivariate statistical techniques were used to investigate source apportionment and source/sink relationships for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the urban and adjacent coastal atmosphere of Chicago/Lake Michigan in 1994–1995. The PAH signatures for the atmospheric particle phase, surface water particle phase and sediments indicate that atmospheric deposition is the major source of PAHs to the sediments and water column particulate phase of Lake Michigan. The PAH signature for the atmospheric gas phase and water dissolved phase indicate an intimate linkage between the lake and its overlying atmosphere. A modified factor analysis-multiple regression model was successfully applied to the source apportionment of atmospheric PAHs (gas+particle). Coal combustion accounted for 48±5% of the ΣPAH concentration in both the urban and adjacent coastal atmosphere, natural gas combustion accounted for 26±2%, coke ovens accounted for 14±3%, and vehicle emissions (gas+diesel) accounted for 9±4%. Each is an identified source category for the region. These results are consistent with the mix of fossil fuel combustion sources and ratios of indicator PAHs.     

降雨径流面源污染年负荷预测方法的开发——以镇江古运河为例

在对镇江古运河2009~2013年的降雨量、降雨径流污染物量监测的基础上,运用回归分析建立降雨量-径流污染方程,并采用灰色理论对未来降雨量进行预测,进而得出降雨径流面源污染年负荷值。结果表明:2014~2020年间,镇江古运河降雨径流中污染物TP、NH₃-N和SS的年负荷与降雨量同向变化,2020年降雨量达到1 381.2 mm时,污染物TP、NH₃-N和SS的年负荷可分别达到217.15 t、421.4 t、5 811.87 t,数值较大;灰色理论与回归分析结合所提出的降雨径流面源污染年负荷预测方法,能够在小样本、贫信息和波动数据序列情况下,简捷有效的对降雨径流面源污染负荷进行高精度的预测,实用与推广价值较大。     

基于正交实验设计制备Cu-Ce/TiO2的多元非线性回归分析

采用过渡金属Cu和稀土金属Ce对TiO2进行改性。运用正交实验设计TiO2的改性方案。以Cu-Ce掺杂负载量、Cu-Ce摩尔比和烧结温度为正交实验设计因子,以光催化甲醛溶液的降解效率为目标因子,编制正交设计表。同时运用多元非线性回归模型,建立多元非线性拟合数学关系方程。结果表明,将正交实验设计方法与多元非线性回归模型相结合,不仅可以弥补正交实验设计的不足,提高实验设计的可靠性,而且实现对各实验各影响因素由定性分析向定量分析转变,有利于高性能纳米光催化材料的制备与性能分析。     

How much e-waste is there in US basements and attics? Results from a national survey

The fate of used electronic products (e-waste) is of increasing concern because of their toxicity and the growing volume of e-waste. Addressing these concerns requires developing the recycling infrastructure, but good estimates of the volume of e-waste stored by US households are still unavailable. In this context, we make two contributions based on a national random survey of 2136 US households. First, we explain how much e-waste is stored by US households using count models. Significant explanatory variables include age, marital and employment status, ethnicity, household size, previous e-waste recycling behavior, and to some extent education, home ownership, and understanding the consequences of recycling, but neither income nor knowledge of e-waste recycling laws. Second, we estimate that on average, each US household has 4.1 small (≤10 pounds) and 2.4 large e-waste items in storage. Although these numbers are likely lower bounds, they are higher than recent US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates (based on narrower product categories). This suggests that the backlog of e-waste in the US is likely larger than generally believed; it calls for developing the recycling infrastructure but also for targeted recycling campaigns.     

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/-9.2)ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation.     

降尘规律研究--兰州城区降尘变化规律及多元自身回归预测

探讨了降尘的年变化、月变化.运用逐步回归筛选变量.采用主分量分析法,得出不同季节的主分量,揭示了降尘的规律,建立了多元自身回归预测方程.对城区降尘进了预测,并与实测作了验证和对比,取得较好效果.