Simulations of stream temperatures showed a wide range of future thermal regimes under a warming climate — from 2.9°C warmer to 7.6°C cooler than current conditions — depending primarily on shade from riparian vegetation. We used the stream temperature model, Heat Source, to analyze a 37‐km study segment of the upper Middle Fork John Day River, located in northeast Oregon, USA. We developed alternative future scenarios based on downscaled projections from climate change models and the composition and structure of native riparian forests. We examined 36 scenarios combining future changes in air temperature (ΔTair = 0°C, +2°C, and +4°C), stream discharge (ΔQ = ?30%, 0%, and +30%), and riparian vegetation (post‐wildfire with 7% shade, current vegetation with 19% shade, a young‐open forest with 34% shade, and a mature riparian forest with 79% effective shade). Shade from riparian vegetation had the largest influence on stream temperatures, changing the seven‐day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) from +1°C to ?7°C. In comparison, the 7DADM increased by 1.4°C with a 4°C increase in air temperature and by 0.7°C with a 30% change in discharge. Many streams throughout the interior western United States have been altered in ways that have substantially reduced shade. The effect of restoring shade could result in future stream temperatures that are colder than today, even under a warmer climate with substantially lower late‐summer streamflow. 相似文献
Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the effects of the new traffic safety law on pedestrian mortality by exploring hazardous behaviors of pedestrians in terms of alcohol use and blood alcohol concentration (BAC).
Methods: A retrospective autopsy study was performed, covering a 7-year period (from 2006 to 2012), including cases of fatally injured pedestrians who died at the scene of the incident. Blood samples obtained from the femoral vein during autopsy were analyzed for BAC. The entire sample was divided into 2 groups. The first included cases from 2006 to 2009, at which time the old traffic safety law was in force, and the second included cases from 2010 to 2012, under the new traffic safety law.
Results: A total of 247 cases were examined, covering a 7-year period. The average age was 57.5 ± 19.7 years (median 61.0 years) with a significant male predominance of 147 men to 100 women. This predominance also applied to alcohol use (54 vs. 13). The results show a significant decrease in the total annual number of fatally injured pedestrians, starting from 2009, compared to previous years, reaching a low in 2010, one year after implementation of the new traffic safety law. In contrast, the proportion of alcohol-intoxicated pedestrians showed no significant difference in the years preceding and following the new traffic safety law, nor did the annual distribution of BAC or mean BAC before and after application of the new law.
Conclusion: The present study indicates that the new traffic safety law has been quite effective in reducing pedestrian mortality. However, alcohol consumption and intoxication in pedestrians remains a fairly important factor in motor vehicle accidents involving pedestrians, because the proportion of pedestrians positive for alcohol, the proportion of severely intoxicated pedestrians with BAC > 1 g/L, and annual mean BAC have remained unchanged. 相似文献
All U.S. federal agencies administering environmental laws purport to practice adaptive management (AM), but little is known about how they actually implement this conservation tool. A gap between the theory and practice of AM is revealed in judicial decisions reviewing agency adaptive management plans. We analyzed all U.S. federal court opinions published through 1 January 2015 to identify the agency AM practices courts found most deficient. The shortcomings included lack of clear objectives and processes, monitoring thresholds, and defined actions triggered by thresholds. This trio of agency shortcuts around critical, iterative steps characterizes what we call AM‐lite. Passive AM differs from active AM in its relative lack of management interventions through experimental strategies. In contrast, AM‐lite is a distinctive form of passive AM that fails to provide for the iterative steps necessary to learn from management. Courts have developed a sophisticated understanding of AM and often offer instructive rather than merely critical opinions. The role of the judiciary is limited by agency discretion under U.S. administrative law. But courts have overturned some agency AM‐lite practices and insisted on more rigorous analyses to ensure that the promised benefits of structured learning and fine‐tuned management have a reasonable likelihood of occurring. Nonetheless, there remains a mismatch in U.S. administrative law between the flexibility demanded by adaptive management and the legal objectives of transparency, public participation, and finality. 相似文献
Available freshwater stocks are being depleted and impaired on a widespread basis, with acute shortages an increasingly frequent condition in arid climates. In transboundary basins, water scarcity and pollution compound interstate tension and contribute to human suffering and ecological damage. This article provides theoretical perspectives on shared freshwater disputes and on the evolution of the international law of shared water resources. It argues that the UN Convention on the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (ratified by some countries, but not yet in force) is inadequate as a framework convention in terms of providing general obligations on the future parties or an institutional framework for future action. The paper suggests that three critical concepts be considered in future management of shared water resources: (1) the unitary character of watersheds (where the absence of extra-basin diversions allows); (2) joint or "communitarian" watershed management; and (3) the relevance of international trade to alleviating regional food stress, resulting from local water scarcity. Finally, it proposes the establishment of an international advisory body on shared water disputes, modelled after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose role is codified in the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 相似文献
Abstract: Water marketing is often cited as a means of alleviating the stresses attached to allocation of water use. Frequently, marketing is suggested in a context that implies substitution of competitive markets for the allocation based on the prior appropriation doctrine. This study examines water marketing from the perspective of a transactions cost approach to the private and broad social agreements (contracts) that support water allocation. It examines the major behavioral challenges faced by any contract, and the alternative approaches to those challenges, with respect to water allocation. It also examines the impact of market design on the existence of externalities, costs imposed by transactions on society and individuals not party to the transaction. It finds that the most robust water market designs will be found in systems with sufficient property rights protection to support investment, sufficient hydrologic information to provide accurate analysis of third party effects, conjunctive management of surface and groundwater, and a governance structure capable of administering the rules while not determining outcomes. 相似文献
Objective: Road safety is an important public health issue worldwide. However, few studies have analyzed the association between criminalizing drunk driving and years of life lost (YLL) due to road traffic deaths (RTDs). Our study can provide useful information about this policy.
Methods: We used interrupted time-series analysis to find the changes in monthly YLL and RTD before and after law enforcement began using RTD data from 2008 to 2014 in Tianjin.
Results: After adjustment for seasonality, months, holidays, and the number of people in each district, criminalizing drunk driving was followed by a 11.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1–21.1%) reduction in risk of RTDs and a corresponding 778.1-year (95% CI, 200–1,355.1) reduction in monthly YLL. The reduction in YLL was especially significant among males, those aged 16–64 years old, and suburban residents.
Conclusions: This study highlights that the law can lead to a reduction in YLL due to RTDs in Tianjin, China. Large immediate public health benefits resulted from the new road traffic law in China. YLL provides a complementary measure for examining the effect of criminalization on drunk driving RTDs. 相似文献
Riprap, consisting of large boulders or concrete blocks, is extensively used to stabilize streambanks and to inhibit lateral erosion of rivers, yet its effect on river morphology and its ecological consequences have been relatively little studied. In this paper, we review the available information, most of it culled from the “grey” literature. We use a simple one‐dimensional morphodynamic model as a conceptual tool to illustrate potential morphological effects of riprap placement in a gravel‐bed river, which include inhibition of local sediment supply to the channel and consequent channel bed scour and substrate coarsening, and downstream erosion. Riprap placement also tends to sever organic material input from the riparian zone, with loss of shade, wood input, and input of finer organic material. Available information on the consequences for the aquatic ecosystem mainly concerns effects on commercially and recreationally important fishes. The preponderance of studies report unfavorable effects on local numbers, but habitat niches created by openings in riprap can favorably affect invertebrates and some small fishes. There is a need for much more research on both morphological and ecosystem effects of riprap placement. 相似文献