小尺度森林火灾的渐近幂律分布

森林火灾系统是一个自组织临界性系统，它的表现之一就是火灾的尺度分布满足幂律规律。然而实际数据分析表明，在尺度最大和最小的两个区域，火灾分布与幂律规律存在较大的差异。对小尺度火灾的偏离现象，研究者通常猜测是由于小面积火灾记录数据遗漏较多造成的，目前尚没有一个理论上的依据，而小尺度火灾的分布规律对大尺度火灾的预测起看关键作用。为了解释这种偏离现象，该文将火灾看作一个生灭过程，并对火灾蔓延和熄灭的机理进行了分析，最终得到了森林火灾分布与火灾尺度的定量依赖关系及其机理。将该文的结果与日本近年来全国范围内的森林火灾统计数据进行了对比，表明该文得到的结果与真实数据得到较好符合，并且成功解释了小尺度森林火灾分布与幂律关系的偏离现象。该研究可望对深入认识火灾系统的自组织临界性和防治火灾具有一定的实际意义。     

玛瑙河多环境介质和铜锈环棱螺体内微塑料的赋存特征

微塑料污染对水生态系统及人类健康危害大,为探究微塑料在不同环境介质中的赋存特征,选择长江一级支流玛瑙河为研究区域,通过现场采样、显微镜观察和傅里叶红外光谱测定等,对玛瑙河表层水体、沉积物、河岸带土壤和底栖动物铜锈环棱螺中微塑料的丰度、粒径、形状、颜色和组成类型进行了分析.结果表明,玛瑙河表层水体的微塑料平均丰度为（5.9±0.26）n·L^-1;上层沉积物中微塑料丰度（以干重计）为（1.35±0.1）n·g^-1,下层沉积物中微塑料丰度（以干重计）为（0.93±0.12）n·g^-1;近河岸带土壤中微塑料丰度（以干重计）为（0.68±0.16）n·g^-1,远河岸带土壤中微塑料丰度（以干重计）为（0.69±0.14）n·g^-1;铜锈环棱螺体内微塑料丰度为（2.06±0.25）n·g^-1.分析发现,上层沉积物和下层沉积物中微塑料丰度呈正相关;铜锈环棱螺体内微塑料丰度分别与上、下层沉积物中微塑料丰度呈正相关;近、远河岸带土壤中微塑料丰度具有相关性.各环境介质和铜锈环棱螺体内微塑料粒径大多<0.1mm,主要形态为纤维状和碎片状,颜色以蓝色和黑色为主,成分主要是聚丙烯（PP）和聚乙烯（PE）.研究发现,河岸带土壤中微塑料主要来源于农用塑料薄膜的破碎和分解.通过多环境介质调查和铜锈环棱螺体内微塑料的分析,探明了大型底栖动物体内微塑料的累积效应,可为全面了解微塑料潜在生态风险提供依据.     

基于最小二乘法的高抽巷CO浓度变化规律分析

我国许多煤矿的煤层同时具有高瓦斯和严重自燃倾向,在抽放瓦斯的同时,容易造成采空区遗煤自燃。因此,监测采空区指标气体的浓度变化对预防采空区自燃非常重要。本文采用最小二乘法对山西阳煤五矿8403工作面高抽巷CO浓度进行分析,拟合得出了高抽巷CO浓度变化曲线,并对拟合方法、拟合效果进行了分析。结果表明,用最小二乘法进行拟合是可行、有效的。结合现场实际条件,分析了高抽巷CO浓度偏高的原因和之所以选取分析高抽巷CO浓度来预测采空区自燃的原因。结果显示,分析高抽巷CO浓度变化可以较早地发现采空区自燃。最后,分析了CO浓度与CO2、O2浓度的相关性,验证了用CO浓度预测采空区自燃的准确性。     

大型河谷场地地震动特性研究

采用有限差分方法,通过算例研究了大型河谷场地地震动特性分析中的人工边界的选取方法,对比分析了不同人工边界的选取对数值模拟结果的影响,确定了散射场地震反应分析输入边界的地震动输入方法,认为在进行有限差分动力计算时,模型两侧施加自由场边界的模拟效果要优于两侧施加粘性边界的模拟效果;同时,对FLAC计算软件进行二次开发,对2个地形差异较大的河谷场地,采用线性和非线性摩尔-库仑模型进行了地震反应对比分析,研究了河谷场地地震动幅值和频谱特性随地形变化的规律。模拟数据表明,河谷场地谷底处地震动基本无放大作用,地势凸起处放大作用则较为明显;当考虑土体非线性时,随着地震动强度的增加,放大作用逐渐减小;谱分析结果表明,地势凸起处受高频地震动的影响显著,而地势平坦的谷底则受低频地震动的影响显著。     

A comparison of overtime patrol stops made inside and out of cluster identified hotspots

Objective: The annual rate of impaired driving crashes in the United States has remained nearly constant over the last decade. While engineers, educators, enforcement, and emergency response personnel have worked diligently in their combined efforts to reduce the loss of life, there is still significant progress to be made. One area of recent interest is the use of data driven enforcement. The basis for data driven enforcement is the use of statistical clustering to identify geographic areas that represent the location of problem identification for various criminal or traffic offenses. In the case of impaired driving fatalities, the clustering represents locations with high rates of impaired driving crashes. Law enforcement officers and supervisors may allocate resources towards more specifically and efficiently addressing problem areas.

Methods: While data driven enforcement has been proven to be an effective tool in addressing crime and traffic safety problems, it has been a slow process for agencies to adopt data driven techniques. This study aims to explore the difference in traffic stops made inside and outside of hotspot identified areas. The study uses data from the Stark County Operating a Vehicle Impaired Task Force between 2013 and 2014.

Results: The analysis determined that stop occurring in hotspot defined areas are more likely to result in impaired driving arrests and seatbelt citations. Additionally it is found that the average cost of impaired driving arrests is significantly cheaper for stops occurring inside of hotspot areas.

Conclusion: Clustering as a means of directing law enforcement efforts are a way to increase the productivity and benefits of law enforcement agencies with limited finances or personnel. From this study it is seen that traffic stops made within defined cluster or hot spot areas are more effective in resulting in OVI arrests.     

地方政府土地违法:财政激励还是引资激励?

地方政府的土地利用行为及动机是理解我国土地违法问题的关键。现有研究重点关注了地方政府土地违法的财政激励而忽视了引资激励,无法解释地方土地违法中涉及大量工业用地的现象。本文立足现行的分税制及官员晋升考核体制,从理论上分析了财政激励和引资激励对地方政府土地违法行为的影响及其差异,并据此提出研究假说:(1)财政激励和引资激励都是地方政府土地违法的重要驱动因素。(2)地方政府在土地财政和土地引资上的目的不同导致二者的违法收益及风险存在差异,这使得引资激励的驱动作用可能更强。然后,基于2008—2014年的省际面板数据,构建计量模型对研究假说进行了实证检验,结果表明:在全国层面,财政激励和引资激励都对地方政府的土地违法行为存在显著正向影响,且后者的作用更强。在东、中、西部的区域层面,东、中部地区的土地违法主要受引资激励影响,财政激励的作用并不显著;而西部地区的土地违法则受财政激励和引资激励的共同影响,且后者的作用更强。这一结果意味着,相对于财政激励,引资激励是驱使地方政府土地违法的更重要因素。由此,在土地违法问题的治理上,除了针对地方政府面临的财政激励进行财政体制改革,更重要的是针对引资激励开展官员绩效考核改革。     

生态环境执法事件本体构建研究和实践应用

结合生态环境执法特点,建立生态环境执法事件本体模型,并对执法不同阶段的相关概念进行统一语义约定.该模型通过时间、环境、对象、动作、状态和语言描述六要素来描述执法事件,通过执法事件类、事件类间关系、事件推理规则和事件实例案件的四元组结构进行执法事件的表达.同时,以某热力工程公司运营的锅炉房超标排放烟气污染物的执法案件构建...     

A lidar-based assessment of riparian shade and large wood potential in the Skagit River watershed,WA

Wild salmon stocks in the Pacific Northwest are imperiled by a variety of declining habitat factors, including riparian shade and in-channel large wood. In this paper, a relatively simple lidar model of the riparian canopy was used along anadromous streams in the Skagit River watershed in western Washington State, United States, to delineate where riparian trees were most lacking, and where restoration efforts would have the greatest benefit in terms of shade and large wood recruitment potential. Within a 45-m riparian buffer, 61% of riparian zones were currently incapable of delivering large wood to the stream. Current potential for large wood recruitment is greatest adjacent to stream edges and falls off rapidly with distance from the channel. Approximately 99% of large wood recruitment potential lies within 45 m of the channel edge, and 50% of the wood potential is within 9 m. A hypothetical canopy model in which all trees mature to a 100-year height would provide 18% more shade distributed over the entire watershed, and 90% more shade in the tributaries. Most of the potential gains in improved shade and large wood contributions are in agricultural areas, as opposed to forestry or urban land uses. The shade and large wood models were constructed from widely available geographic information system tools and are readily transferable to other watersheds with similar characteristics. Model outputs are intended for use in planning restoration projects, as an input to stream temperature models, and to inform policy on restoration priorities and regulatory buffer widths.     

爆破冲击波在台阶法隧道内的传播特性研究

为了解决目前隧道施工过程中掌子面开挖爆破产生的冲击波容易造成工程灾害的问题,基于宁攀高速胜利隧道台阶法开挖的实际情况,采用动力分析软件ANSYS/LS-DYNA及现场测试的方法研究冲击波在隧道上下台阶区段的传播规律。研究结果表明：初始冲击波传播至下台阶断面时先扩散至中上区域,与拱顶及侧壁碰撞反射后再传播至下部区域;冲击波在下台阶段0～10 m范围内,经多次反射叠加形成提升幅度约30%的第2次超压峰值;冲击波由上台阶较小断面进入下台阶较大断面传播时,超压衰减速度相对加快,过渡界面前后10 m范围内衰减系数由1.01%最高提升至1.05%。现场实测数据与数值模拟结果在上下台阶段得到的波形传播规律基本一致,验证数值模拟的可靠性。研究结果可为实际工程中爆破冲击波在变截面隧道中的控制措施提供参考。     

Precision Measurements from Very-Large Scale Aerial Digital Imagery

Managers need measurements and resource managers need the length/width of a variety of items including that of animals, logs, streams, plant canopies, man-made objects, riparian habitat, vegetation patches and other things important in resource monitoring and land inspection. These types of measurements can now be easily and accurately obtained from very large scale aerial (VLSA) imagery having spatial resolutions as fine as 1 millimeter per pixel by using the three new software programs described here. VLSA images have small fields of view and are used for intermittent sampling across extensive landscapes. Pixel-coverage among images is influenced by small changes in airplane altitude above ground level (AGL) and orientation relative to the ground, as well as by changes in topography. These factors affect the object-to-camera distance used for image-resolution calculations. ‘ImageMeasurement’ offers a user-friendly interface for accounting for pixel-coverage variation among images by utilizing a database. ‘LaserLOG’ records and displays airplane altitude AGL measured from a high frequency laser rangefinder, and displays the vertical velocity. ‘Merge’ sorts through large amounts of data generated by LaserLOG and matches precise airplane altitudes with camera trigger times for input to the ImageMeasurement database. We discuss application of these tools, including error estimates. We found measurements from aerial images (collection resolution: 5–26 mm/pixel as projected on the ground) using ImageMeasurement, LaserLOG, and Merge, were accurate to centimeters with an error less than 10%. We recommend these software packages as a means for expanding the utility of aerial image data.