江河水源地突发性水污染事故风险评价

近年来,我国江河饮用水水源地突发性水质污染事故频发,成为我国面临的最严重的环境问题之一.江河水源地突发性水质污染事件的风险评价是确保饮用水源地水质安全的重要手段,对突发性水质污染事故,采取适当的应急处理措施.     

化学品危险性鉴别分类研究的现状与展望

从对GHS(化学品分类及标记全球协调制度)化学品危险性鉴别分类的分析出发,归纳和总结了联合国、欧盟、美国以及中国的化学品危险性鉴别分类研究现状;提出化学品危险性鉴别分类是获取化学品安全信息、评估化学品的固有危险性的重要手段;给出化学品危险性鉴别分类试验必须满足OECD(经济合作与发展组织)的各项标准和准则;对化学品危险性鉴别分类的应用前景及未来工作进行评述和展望;指出为化学品安全管理、事故应急救援、事故调查及做好基础数据的积累是今后研究工作的努力方向;提出了借鉴GHS,REACH(化学品注册、评估、许可和限制)等先进化学品安全监管法规,对完善我国的化学品安全监管制度,化学品鉴别分类标准的重要现实意义。     

A Framework for Comprehensive,Integrated, Watershed Monitoring in New York City

The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors.     

Multi-stand Forest Management under a Climatic Risk: Do Time and Risk Preferences Matter?

We propose a stochastic dynamic programming framework to model the management of a multi-stand forest under climate risk (strong wind occurrence). The preferences of the forest-owner are specified by a non-expected utility in order to separately analyze intertemporal substitution and risk aversion effects. A numerical method is developed to characterize the optimal forest management policies and the optimal consumption-saving strategy. The stochastic dynamic programming framework is applied to a non-industrial private forest-owner located in North-East of France. We show that the optimal decisions both depend upon risk and time preferences. The authors would like to thank participants at the international conference on Economics of Sustainable Forest Management in Toronto, at the PARIS 1 seminar on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, at the 2004 Applied Microeconomics Conference in Lille and at the 13th annual conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists at Budapest.     

飞行安全的针对性评估

根据飞行员执行新的或特殊任务的需要,在研制飞行安全评估系统时,设置了针对性评估模块.运用层析分析法(AHP)确定了针对性评估模块与一般性评估模块的权重关系.根据飞行安全理论确定了一般性评估简捷方法的因素、要素及量化数据;根据层析分析法、基元事件分析法确定了针对性评估模块的结构和因素的权重,采用基元事件分析法、飞行法规分析和调查研究相结合的方法,对针对性评估的要素进行了量化.最后针对具体事例做了评估计算.研究表明,当针对性评估的安全度小于90%时,应引起足够的警觉,采取必要的措施.     

航班起飞过程的风险识别与控制

飞机起飞阶段是事故多发阶段,为了进行风险识别与控制,设计了定性判别方法和定量计算仿真算法,并以具体飞机坠毁事故为例分析了安全裕度.分别计算了飞机冲出跑道的速度、距离和逃生时间.中断起飞的速度与时间,是火灾发生后的判断关键,也构成了飞机起飞事故的裕度.结果表明,中断起飞的安全裕度比坠毁的大,且关于中断起飞的规定有矛盾之处;用于逃生的90 s规则高于中断起飞的决断速度的限制规定.该分析方法为处理危急时刻的两难决策问题提供了理论指导.     

Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are not typically within secure industrial sites, but are routed across land out of the ownership of the pipeline company. If the natural gas is accidentally released and ignited, the hazard distance associated with these pipelines to people and property is known to range from under 20 m for a smaller pipeline at lower pressure to up to over 300 m for a larger pipeline at higher pressure. Therefore, pipeline operators and regulators must address the associated public safety issues.This paper focuses on a method to explicitly calculate the individual risk of a transmission pipeline carrying natural gas. The method is based on reasonable accident scenarios for route planning related to the pipeline's proximity to the surrounding buildings. The minimum proximity distances between the pipeline and buildings are based on the rupture of the pipeline, with the distances chosen to correspond to a radiation level of approximately 32 kW/m². In the design criteria for steel pipelines for high-pressure gas transmission (IGE/TD/1), the minimum building proximity distances for rural areas are located between individual risk values of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁶. Therefore, the risk from a natural gas transmission pipeline is low compared with risk at the building separated minimum distance from chemical industries.     

冲压机械伤害风险评价信息系统研究

研究冲压机械伤害风险评价信息系统,无论对企业内部事故预防还是对职工健康安全,还是节省国家因事故造成的经济损失,都十分必要。应用计算机编程语言和数据库软件,对冲压作业进行综合管理评价、设备设施的固有危险性评价及劳动卫生与作业环境评价,进而对冲压作业风险进行评价分级,建立动态的冲压机械伤害风险评价数据库管理信息系统。该系统可保存所有评价的项目资料,供应用和参考,实现了对冲压机械伤害风险评价的数据库动态管理,使风险评价分析工作组织化、条理化、系统化。     

油气集输站安全监控预警及管理信息系统的开发

提出油气集输站安全监控预警及管理信息系统建设的调研内容、需求分析以及安全相关控制系统的风险分析流程。设计了该系统建设的4层结构框架和拓扑图,深入研究了实时参数监控、分级报警与安全保护控制、智能诊断与预警、多媒体监控、安全生产管理信息子系统的主要开发内容和功能实现。     

Carbon capture and storage-desirability from a risk management point of view

Environmental and safety risks related to carbon capture and storage concern leakages and accidental releases during transport and geological storage. Based on principles widely accepted in the EU and beyond in the discussion about the where’s and why’s of nuclear waste repositories, this paper discusses the desirability of carbon capture and storage from a risk management point of view, focusing on environmental risks on the global level (climate change). On this basis it is concluded that, if the key energy issue of coming generations, not just in Europe but all around the world, is not the abundance of fossil resources but rather an unacceptably high probability of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, then the solution should not include any massive hiding of the emissions but entirely focus on the avoidance based on improved technology in power plants and other industrial installations.