BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

稳定同位素混合模型揭示的长江下游新石器时代人群摄食策略

长江下游地区是稻作农业的主要起源地之一。然而,水稻对长江下游新石器时代人群饮食的贡献程度仍不清晰。稳定同位素混合模型能够量化揭示长江下游地区史前人群的摄食策略。系统收集长江下游地区已发表的人骨、动物骨和植物稳定碳氮同位素数据,基于稳定同位素混合模型,对长江下游地区新石器时代人群的摄食策略进行研究。结果发现：距今7.0—5.3 ka长江下游地区人群可能摄食多种动植物资源,该时期水稻对人类饮食的贡献与其他植物资源基本相当。距今5.3—4.3 ka,水稻已超过其他动植物资源,成为美人地遗址人群的主要食物资源。研究揭示了长江下游新石器时代文明化进程与稻作农业发展具有同步性,狩猎采集经济则为该区域文明化进程起到基础支撑作用。     

加油站地下储油罐压力管理系统的相关研究

在当前普遍采用的加油站真空辅助式第二阶段油气回收系统中,为了避免回收到地下储油罐中的油气再次通过P/V阀排空,必须对其中气相空间的压力实施有效控制。从国外的发展情况来看,地下储油罐的压力管理系统主要分为基于膜分离技术、基于弹性气囊和基于活性炭吸附三大类,其中膜法油气回收装置在国内已经得到了较多关注。首次系统介绍了气囊式压力管理系统的工作原理及其主要结构设计,具体包括管线布局、钢制压力容器壳体、位于容器顶部封头上的接口组件和全部位于容器内的气囊等;同时对另外一种可行方案进行了分析。     

Information technologies and the sharing of disaster knowledge: the critical role of professional culture

A comparative survey of a diverse sample of 96 US and Italian emergency management agencies shows that the diffusion of new information technologies (IT) has transformed disaster communications. Although these technologies permit access to and the dissemination of massive amounts of disaster information with unprecedented speed and efficiency, barriers rooted in the various professional cultures still hinder the sharing of disaster knowledge. To be effective the available IT must be attuned to the unique settings and professional cultures of the local emergency management communities. Findings show that available technology, context, professional culture and interaction are key factors that affect the knowledge transfer process. Cultural filters appear to influence emergency managers' perceptions of their own professional roles, their vision of the applicability of technology to social issues, and their perspective on the transferability of disaster knowledge. Four cultural approaches to the application of IT to disaster communications are defined: technocentric; geographic,; anthropocentric; and ecocentric.     

环境管理、规划管理与项目管理

文章从深入分析环境管理的内涵出发,进而提出树立项目管理意识,强化项目管理的概念,说明项目管理在环境管理中的地位和作用,从这个意义上讨论环境管理与项目管理的关系,简述环境保护项目管理的主要环节,达到提高环境管理效能的途径的目的。     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

THE VULNERABILITY OF WETLANDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: The vulnerability of wetlands to changes in climate depends on their position within hydrologic landscapes. Hydrologic landscapes are defined by the flow characteristics of ground water and surface water and by the interaction of atmospheric water, surface water, and ground water for any given locality or region. Six general hydrologic landscapes are defined; mountainous, plateau and high plain, broad basins of interior drainage, riverine, flat coastal, and hummocky glacial and dune. Assessment of these landscapes indicate that the vulnerability of all wetlands to climate change fall between two extremes: those dependent primarily on precipitation for their water supply are highly vulnerable, and those dependent primarily on discharge from regional ground water flow systems are the least vulnerable, because of the great buffering capacity of large ground water flow systems to climate change.     

管理措施对农田生态系统土壤呼吸的影响

为研究管理措施(氮肥施用和耕翻措施)对农田土壤呼吸的影响,采用静态暗箱-气相色谱法对农田生态系统的土壤呼吸作用进行了5个生长季(2002~2003年小麦,2003年玉米、大豆,2003~2004年小麦,2004年玉米,2004~2005年小麦)的野外观测试验.结果表明,冬小麦基肥(2002-11-09)、返青肥(2003-02-14)和拔节肥(2003-03-26)施用后2周内氮肥施用处理的土壤呼吸速率明显高于对照,但不同施氮水平间的土壤呼吸速率无显著差异.耕翻对土壤呼吸的影响效应受到前茬作物类型的制约.在2003~2004年的冬小麦生长季(其前茬种植的作物为水稻),不耕和浅耕处理的平均土壤呼吸速率之间无显著差异(p>0.05).在2004年玉米生长季浅耕比不耕处理显著增加了土壤呼吸速率(p<0.05),而在后茬的2004~2005年小麦生长季浅耕比不耕又显著降低了土壤呼吸速率(p<0.05).在前茬作物为水稻的麦田(2004~2005年小麦生长季),深耕比不耕处理显著增加了土壤CO2排放量.不同管理措施下,农田土壤呼吸与土壤温度的关系均可用指数方程描述,针对不同管理措施下拟合得到的指数方程求得的Q10值在1...     

我国主要蔬菜和粮油作物的砷含量与砷富集能力比较

根据国内外文献报道,对蔬菜和粮油作物中砷的累积特点和富集能力进行总结和分析.结果表明.清洁区和污染区蔬菜的砷含量变幅分别为0.001-1.07 mg·kg-1和0.001-8.51 mg·kg-1(鲜重),均值分别为0.035 mg·kg-1和0.068 mg·kg-1不同种类蔬菜的砷含量由大到小,依次为:叶菜类>根茎类>茄果类>鲜豆类;清洁区和污染区粮油作物的砷含量变幅分别为0.001-2.20 mg·kg-1和0.007-6.83 mg·kg-1(干重),均值分别为0.081 mg·kg-1和0.294 mg·kg-1,其中水稻的砷含量显著高于小麦和玉米.从富集系数来看,叶莱类蔬菜的砷富集系数最高,芹菜、蕹菜、茼蒿、芥菜等蔬菜的抗砷污染能力较弱.粮食作物玉米的抗砷污染能力较强.与蔬菜砷限量标准(GB4810-1994)相比,我国砷污染区的蔬菜中有32.2%的样本砷含量超标,其中叶菜类和根茎类的超标率分别为47.9%和12.8%.与粮食砷限量标准(GB4810-1994)比较,我国污染区粮油作物的样本砷超标率为34.8%,其中水稻的超标率高达42.9%.玉米和小麦的超标率均高于20%.     

武器装备验证环境因素确定模型及其应用研究

从系统的角度,分析了与武器装备环境紧密相联的4个因素,从武器装备的产品分解结构、环境分解结构、功能分解结构、状态集构建了武器装备系统、分系统、部件的试验验证环境因素确定模型,分析了模型的应用,给出了模型的工作流程。描述了基于上述模型的信息管理系统的构建思路与功能。