Human Migration,Protected Areas,and Conservation Outreach in Tanzania

A recent discussion debates the extent of human in‐migration around protected areas (PAs) in the tropics. One proposed argument is that rural migrants move to bordering areas to access conservation outreach benefits. A counter proposal maintains that PAs have largely negative effects on local populations and that outreach initiatives even if successful present insufficient benefits to drive in‐migration. Using data from Tanzania, we examined merits of statistical tests and spatial methods used previously to evaluate migration near PAs and applied hierarchical modeling with appropriate controls for demographic and geographic factors to advance the debate. Areas bordering national parks in Tanzania did not have elevated rates of in‐migration. Low baseline population density and high vegetation productivity with low interannual variation rather than conservation outreach explained observed migration patterns. More generally we argue that to produce results of conservation policy significance, analyses must be conducted at appropriate scales, and we caution against use of demographic data without appropriate controls when drawing conclusions about migration dynamics. La Migración Humana, Áreas Protegidas y el Alcance de la Conservación en Tanzania     

苏南农村地区大气PM2.5元素组成特征及其来源分析

为了解苏南农村地区大气细颗粒物的污染水平及其可能的来源,在2002年7月-2003年1月的夏、秋、冬3个季节对雪堰镇和太湖站PM_2.5进行采样和分析,得到了PM_2.5和14种组成元素的质量浓度.研究表明,苏南农村地区PM_2.5的污染水平较高,S,Zn,Pb和As 4种污染元素的质量浓度水平与城市接近;组成元素的季节分布规律存在区域差异,这可能与局地源的贡献,大气细颗粒物中、长距离传输以及复杂的气象条件有关.因子分析结果表明,土壤源、燃煤源、冶金或垃圾焚烧和汽车尾气4类源对PM_2.5有明显贡献,说明人类活动对苏南农村地区PM_2.5具有重要影响.      

Analysis of the Impacts of Nongovernmental Economy on Nonagricultural Employment Growth in China

The importance of solving the employment problems by nongovernmental economy in China has aroused the concern of many scholars widely. However, few literatures could be found to deal with the impacts on nonagricultural employment growth in China by nongovernmental economy from several levels such as the whole nation, urban and rural. Based on the research accessed on the relationships between nongovernmental economy and employment, the impacts of the development of nongovernmental economy on non-agricultural employment growth in China are emphasized in this paper. Taking time series data of non-agricultural employment in China＇s different economy types in 1992-2005 as study objects, by establishing econometric regression models, some meaningful points are found as follows, the impacts of nongovernmental economy on the nonagricultural employment in either national or urban-rural level are rather significant although their impacts＇ degrees are different. Based on the research findings above, some countermeasures are proposed to accelerate the nongovernmental economic development and improve its ability to absorb nonagricultural employment.     

Using deep-belief networks to understand propensity for livelihood change in a rural coastal community to further conservation

Overharvesting of terrestrial and marine resources may be alleviated by encouraging an alternative configuration of livelihoods, particularly in rural communities in developing countries. Typical occupations in such areas include fishing and farming, and rural households often switch livelihood activities to suit climate and economic conditions. We used a machine-learning tool, deep-belief networks (DBN), and data from surveys of a rural Philippine coastal community to examine household desire to change livelihood. This desire is affected by a variety of factors, such as income, family needs, and feelings of work satisfaction, that are interrelated in complex ways. In farming households, livelihood changes often occur to diversify resources, increase income, and lessen economic risk. The DBN, given its multilayer perceptron structure, has a capacity to model nonlinear relationships among factors while providing an acceptable degree of accuracy. Relative to a set of 34 features (e.g., education, boat ownership, and work satisfaction), we examined the binary response variables desire to change work or not to change work. The best network had a test set accuracy of 97.5%. Among the features, 7 significantly affected desire to shift work: ethnicity, work satisfaction, number of persons in a household in ill health, number of fighting cocks owned, fishing engagement, buy-and-sell revenue, and educational level. A cross-correlation matrix of these 7 features indicated households less inclined to change work were those engaged in fishing and retail buying and selling. For fishing, provision of economic and other incentives should be considered to encourage changing from this occupation to allow recovery of fishery resources.     

Rural-urban Migration,Rural Household Income and Sustainable Development in Rural Areas of China

The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationships among rural-urban migration, rural household income and sustainable development in rural areas of China. The typical case study is done and 288 questionnaires are collected from five villages in Hebei and Guangxi provinces, China. The migration and remittance status, household income and sustainable development of rural areas are analyzed on the basis of questionnaires. Rural-urban migration is becoming a part of routine life in rural areas. And remittance is an important component in rural household income. Rural-urban migration increases the arable land area per labor, which releases the tight human-land relationship in villages. In total, the migration increases the rural household income and accelerates the sustainable development of rural areas.     

Post‐earthquake rehabilitation of the rural water systems in Kashmir's Jehlum Valley

After the devastating earthquake of 8 October 2005 in Kashmir, international organizations provided the Pakistani government with relief and reconstruction assistance. Under the oft‐cited motto ‘rebuild better’, many of these efforts targeted the rural areas. The emergency period was followed by a development phase, during which all actors sought to ensure that their reconstruction projects would have long‐term, sustainable impacts. Based on the authors’ experience during that phase, this paper offers specific guidelines for rehabilitation work on Kashmir's rural water supply system, stressing the need for analysis of the social context to guarantee sustainability of the completed projects.     

能源流视角下村落尺度能源消费结构比较及环境效应研究：基于河南省邑西里村、杨家村及山东省东桥头村的调查分析

加强村落尺度能源消费活动及其环境效应研究是实现农村能源可持续转型及绿色发展精细化治理的前提。但目前该领域存在明显知识空白，其原因在于缺乏基础数据和系统化数据采集体系及集成分析方法。基于对河南省邑西里村、杨家村以及山东省东桥头村的实地调研和半结构式访谈，采用定性和定量结合的方法开展能源消费活动及环境效应比较研究。结果表明：（1）村落尺度能源消费具有显著空间分异特征。邑西里村、杨家村和东桥头村人均能源消费量分别为505 kgce、889 kgce和1139 kgce；由能源消费产生的温室气体与污染物的种类分别为CO₂、CH₄、SO₂、N₂O、NO_x和TSP，单个家庭CO₂的产生量在2000—4000 kg；CH₄、SO₂、TSP和NO_x的排放量基本在1—5 kg；N₂O的排放量均在100 g以下。（2）居民生活环境和炊事供暖是影响村域能源消费的主要因素。其在邑西里村、杨家村和东桥头村的总用能占比分别为50.10%、79.08%和77.61%。（3）能源来源及消费结构具有明显的区位属性特征。杨家村距离市区较近，天然气成为当地居民的主要来源；邑西里村和东桥头村离市区较远，则以电力和煤炭为主。未来乡村地区的发展应该与当地的地域特征相结合，构建具有地方化特征的发展策略，实现农村能源的低碳健康发展。     

基于 LCA 的市域尺度稻田系统温室气体排放评估方法及实证：以台州市为例

开展稻田温室气体排放量化评估，明确稻田温室气体（greenhouse gases，GHGs）排放的构成、分布及其变化趋势，是推进农业绿色可持续发展的重要前提。基于生命周期评价法（life cycle assessment，LCA），筛选集成稻田CO₂、CH₄、N₂O排放评估模型，提出市域尺度稻田GHGs排放核算框架，并量化分析2001—2017年台州市不同类型水稻GHGs排放的构成、分布及其变化趋势。结果表明：（1）水稻单位面积碳足迹呈现上升趋势，单位产量碳足迹呈下降趋势；单季稻单位面积碳足迹最高（8467 kg∙hm⁻²，以CO₂计，余同），连作晚稻单位产量碳足迹最高（1.28 kg∙kg⁻¹）。（2）2001—2017年台州市水稻田GHGs排放总量呈下降趋势，从1110.52 Gg（以CO₂计，余同）降至557.23 Gg；2017年水稻GHGs排放主要集中于温岭市（131.39 Gg）、临海市（121.64 Gg），玉环市排放量最低（9.37 Gg），早稻和连作晚稻GHGs排放主要集中在温岭市，单季稻GHGs排放集中于临海市。（3）在农资投入碳足迹构成中化肥占比最大（50.46%），单位面积碳足迹结构中CH₄占比最大（75.26%）。通过展开在市域尺度上水稻GHGs排放的核算过程，旨在为农田系统的碳排放提供更加精细化的计算方式，并为寻找更有效的碳减排路径及农田系统的可持续发展提供科学支撑。     

农村户用沼气项目的碳减排效益核算——以湖北省恩施州为例

对现有的碳减排计算模型加以改进,对于关键参数的取值大部分参考我国学者的研究成果,以湖北省恩施州为例,从甲烷利用直接减排、化石能源替代减排、甲烷泄漏碳排放和甲烷燃烧碳排放4个方面,综合核算2000-2010年农村户用沼气项目的碳减排效益.结果表明,每口沼气池的碳减排量为1.10～1.29 t·a-1,碳减排量受沼气池规格(饲养生猪数量和类型)和地区气温变化等因素影响,每口沼气池的间接碳减排量(1.07 t·a-1)是直接碳减排量(0.22 t·a-1)的4.9倍.2000-2010年恩施州年碳减排效益整体随新建沼气池数量的增加而增加,碳减排量由2000年的3.97万t·a-1上升到2010年的70.93万t·a-1；2000-2010年恩施州户用沼气项目处理畜禽粪便导致的直接碳减排总量为157.44万t,沼气替代燃煤导致的间接碳减排总量为361.82万t,甲烷燃烧导致的碳排放量为13.12万t,甲烷泄漏导致的碳排放量为89.94万t,碳减排总效益为416.20万t.     

代际差异视角下农民工乡城迁移与宅基地退出影响因素分析——基于推拉理论的实证研究

在2011年天津市农民工调查数据的基础上,本文借鉴推拉理论重新梳理影响农民工城乡迁移与宅基地退出意愿的因素,建立了农民工宅基地退出影响因素的推拉分析框架,并通过实证研究析出和显化在不同代际农民工城乡迁移和宅基地退出过程中起关键作用的因素。研究发现:在推力因素方面,对第一代农民工宅基地退出意愿产生较大影响的因素主要是年龄、受教育程度、宅基地在住房养老中的作用、供养系数和对农村基础设施满意程度;对新生代农民工宅基地退出意愿产生较大影响的因素主要有性别、教育程度、供养系数和对农村基础设施满意程度。在拉力因素方面,对第一代农民工宅基地退出意愿产生较大影响的因素主要是有无专业培训经历或证书、是否签订劳动合同、区位、单位性质和外出务工时所利用的方式;对新生代农民工宅基地退出意愿产生较大影响的因素主要是有无专业培训经历或证书、是否签订劳动合同、区位、单位性质、外出务工时所利用的方式和是否同城里的人交过朋友。在此基础上,提出了相应的政策建议。