Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process‐based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf‐area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.     

Removal of perfluorinated surfactants from wastewater by adsorption and ion exchange——Influence of material properties,sorption mechanism and modeling

Perfluorooctane sulfonate(PFOS) has attracted increasing concern in recent years due to its world-wide distribution, persistence, bioaccumulation and potential toxicity. The influence of sorbent properties on the adsorptive elimination of PFOS from wastewater by activated carbons, polymer adsorbents and anion exchange resins was investigated with regard to their isotherms and kinetics. The batch and column tests were combined with physicochemical characterization methods, e.g., N_2 physisorption, mercury porosimetry, infrared spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, titrations, as well as modeling. Sorption kinetics was successfully modelled applying the linear driving force(LDF) approach for surface diffusion after introducing a load dependency of the mass transfer coefficient βs.The big difference in the initial mass transfer coefficient βs,0, when non-functionalized adsorbents and ion-exchange resins are compared, suggests that the presence of functional groups impedes the intraparticle mass transport. The more functional groups a resin possesses and the longer the alkyl moieties are the bigger is the decrease in sorption rate.But the selectivity for PFOS sorption is increasing when the character of the functional groups becomes more hydrophobic. Accordingly, ion exchange and hydrophobic interaction were found to be involved in the sorption processes on resins, while PFOS is only physisorptively bound to activated carbons and polymer adsorbents. In agreement with the different adsorption mechanisms, resins possess higher total sorption capacities than adsorbents. Hence, the latter ones are rendered more effective in PFOS elimination at concentrations in the low μg/L range, due to a less pronounced convex curvature of the sorption isotherm in this concentration range.     

城市大气中臭氧浓度控制的困难与挑战——以成都市为例

研究城市化、工业化和区域经济一体化进程的不断加快,对城市大气环境的影响是当前大气环境领域研究的热点问题。在此过程中,利用空气质量模型模拟系统研究大气环境污染问题成为大气环境研究中不可缺少的组成部分。在当前空气污染复杂的形势下,针对城市大气环境中臭氧的浓度尚未有效的控制措施。研究主要利用Models-3/CMAQ空气质量模式对成都市臭氧浓度数值通过不同的控制情景进行模拟,揭示城市大气中臭氧浓度控制的困难与挑战,并尝试性提出今后的研究方向,以期为控制城市大气中臭氧浓度提供建议。     

雷达海杂波统计特性建模研究

介绍了海杂波统计特性建模的幅度特性、多普勒谱及空间相关这三个方面的研究状况,对各种建模的思路和模型效果进行了对比总结。对于幅度均值已有多个较为成熟的模型,但适用范围不同,结果差异也很大。幅度分布建模重点解决拖尾问题,复合建模是趋势。除平均谱外,开始研究短时多普勒谱。空间相关性建模主要建立空间相关长度与雷达及海洋参数间的联系,但是研究还不够全面。总的来看,已由单纯经验建模发展为力图在机理研究指导下有一定物理意义的建模。尽管海杂波建模效果愈来愈接近实际,但建模依然存在诸多问题。     

Quantitative analysis of microbial biomass yield in aerobic bioreactor

We have studied the integrated model of reaction rate equations with thermal energy balance in aerobic bioreactor for food waste decomposition and showed that the integrated model has the capability both of monitoring microbial activity in real time and of analyzing biodegradation kinetics and thermal-hydrodynamic properties. On the other hand, concerning microbial metabolism, it was known that balancing catabolic reactions with anabolic reactions in terms of energy and electron flow provides stoichiometric metabolic reactions and enables the estimation of microbial biomass yield (stoichiometric reaction model). We have studied a method for estimating real-time microbial biomass yield in the bioreactor during food waste decomposition by combining the integrated model with the stoichiometric reaction model. As a result, it was found that the time course of microbial biomass yield in the bioreactor during decomposition can be evaluated using the operational data of the bioreactor (weight of input food waste and bed temperature) by the combined model. The combined model can be applied to manage a food waste decomposition not only for controlling system operation to keep microbial activity stable, but also for producing value–added products such as compost on optimum condition.     

江苏盐城湿地珍禽国家级自然保护区范围调整研究

近年来,江苏盐城湿地珍禽国家级自然保护区与当地社会经济发展的矛盾突出,2006年的规划调整已不能满足保护区保护与发展要求,于2011年,本着保护优先,兼顾发展,人与自然和谐相处的理念,根据保护区保护物种的分布和生境变化现状,以及当地社会经济发展现状与需求,对江苏盐城湿地珍禽国家级自然保护区进行了适当的调整。因范围调整与沿海湿地变化方向一致,鸟类主要栖息地基本没有变化;在进行范围调整的同时通过加大生态补偿力度、多方筹集资金,加强保护区基础设施建设和管护能力培养,使得保护区功能区调整后对保护区自然属性和可保护属性没有变化,从而使保护区的管理条件提到了一个新的水平,保护区管理水平得到显著提高。     

广西邦亮东黑冠长臂猿栖息地的气候资源分析

气候资源是影响动物行为、发育、存活、繁殖与分布等的重要因子。为了探明广西邦亮东黑冠长臂猿栖息地的气候环境特征,对其栖息地附近县(乡)的主要气象要素进行统计与分析。结果表明:广西邦亮东黑冠长臂猿栖息地年均日照时数为1 521.8小时,月变幅为25.44%;年均气温为19.1℃,最冷月平均气温为11.0℃,最热月平均气温为25.0℃;年均降雨量为1 606.3 mm,月变幅为86.05%;年均蒸发量为1 507.1 mm,月变幅为28.06%;年均相对湿度为80%,月变幅为2.60%;年均风速为1.5 m/s,月变幅为15.4%。     

湖滨湿地恢复方案研究综述

在查阅国内外湖滨湿地恢复资料的基础上,以恢复湿地水质净化和野生动物栖息地功能为双重目的,整理形成了适用于我国富营养湖泊湖滨湿地的恢复方案,从恢复湿地的设计、恢复的前期处理、恢复过程中的植物种植与管理、恢复后的维护管理和生态监测等5个阶段进行了恢复技术的综述与探讨。     

The predictive validity of safety climate

PROBLEM: Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. METHODS: This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628]. In addition, safety behavior and accident experience data were collected for 5 months following the survey and were statistically analyzed (structural equation modeling, confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, etc.) to identify correlations, associations, internal consistency, and factorial structures. RESULTS: Results revealed that the ZSCQ: (a) was psychometrically reliable and valid, (b) served as an effective predictor of safety-related outcomes (behavior and accident experience), and (c) could be trimmed to an 11 item survey with little loss of explanatory power. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Practitioners and researchers can use the ZSCQ with reasonable certainty of the questionnaire's reliability and validity. This provides a solid foundation for the development of meaningful organizational interventions and/or continued research into social factors affecting industrial accident experience.     

基于BP神经网络的煤层自燃预测

在全面分析影响煤层自燃因素的基础上,建立了煤层自燃预测的人工神经网络模型.应用该模型对某煤田的多个煤层样本进行了训练和预测,网络经过10次训练后,误差达到设定的最小值,6次预测测试中最大误差仅为0.027 8,最小的为0.000 1.研究表明,该模型精度较高,可用于预测煤层自燃的实际应用.