利用日均及14时气象数据进行霾日判定的比较分析

汇总京津冀区域内多个地面站1980-2008年气象资料,根据目前霾天气判别的主要方法,结合气象资料的具体特点,确定具体判别指标,利用日均值和14时实测值分别统计区域内各站点逐年各月的霾日数,分析两种方法进行霾日统计的具体特点.发现两种方法都不可能准确统计出霾天气的出现,但在分析单个站点或者一个区域长时间跨度的霾日变化时...     

江西省2001-2005年森林植被碳储量及 区域分布特征

利用"十五"期间(2001-2005年)江西省森林资源二类清查资料,根据优势树种生物量扩展方程,估算江西省森林植被的碳储量和碳密度,并分析其地理分布特征。江西省森林植被的总碳储量为263.87 Tg C(1 Tg C=10⁶ t),其中林分碳储量为214.70 Tg C。在11个地市中,赣州市的森林植被碳储量最大,为70.11 Tg C,其次是吉安市、上饶市和宜春市。江西省森林植被的平均碳密度为26.27 t/hm²,林分平均碳密度为27.20 t/hm²,各地市森林植被的平均碳密度景德镇市最大,为31.65 t/hm²,其次为宜春市、吉安市和鹰潭市。各森林类型中,杉木(Cunninghamia lanceolata)林的碳储量最大,为73.77 Tg C,占江西省林分碳储量的34.36％;硬阔林的碳密度大于其他类型森林,为42.64 t/hm²,是江西省森林植被平均碳密度的1.5倍多。幼、中龄林的碳储量占全省林分碳储量的81.95％,碳密度随着龄级的增长而增加。     

资源环境综合科学考察中的多维数据集成管理模式研究与实践 ——以中国北方及其毗邻地区综合科学考察为例

资源环境综合科学考察是掌握和获取国家和区域资源环境本底数据的重要手段。综合科学考察数据来之不易、非常宝贵,但是由于其所具有的多来源、多类型、多学科等综合性特点,这不仅影响到大量已有考察活动积累数据的集成,而且给当前正在开展的许多科学考察研究活动的数据集成管理带来困难。针对这一需求,论文分析认为缺少"一致性的数据模型"是综合科学考察数据集成的核心问题,提出了综合科学考察多维数据管理的理念,对综合科学考察数据的多维特性进行分析,并在此基础上提出多维数据管理的共性维度概念模型。结合当前正在开展的跨中国、俄罗斯、蒙古三国的中国北方及其毗邻地区综合科学考察研究实践,建立了综合科学考察数据集成与管理的三个共性维度基准。具体包括与考察任务内容对应的数据要素维基准、按照考察数据采集和更新周期的数据时间维基准、按照地理空间格网体系建立的数据空间维基准。这一模式初步应用于中国北方及其毗邻地区综合科学考察的数据集成与管理,取得较好效果。     

Improving the Chest Protection of Elderly Occupants in Frontal Crashes Using SMART Load Limiters

Objective: To determine whether varying the seat belt load limiter (SBL) according to crash and occupant characteristics could have real-world injury reduction benefits in frontal impacts and, if so, to quantify those benefits.

Methods: Real-world UK accident data were used to identify the target population of vehicle occupants and frontal crash scenarios where improved chest protection could be most beneficial. Generic baseline driver and front passenger numerical models using a 50th percentile dummy were developed with MADYMO software. Simulations were performed where the load limiter threshold was varied in selected frontal impact scenarios. For each SBL setting, restraint performance, dummy kinematics, and injury outcome were studied in 5 different frontal impact types. Thoracic injury predictions were converted into injury probability values using Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ age-dependent thoracic risk curves developed and validated based on a methodology proposed by Laituri et al. (2005). Real-world benefit was quantified using the predicted AIS 2+ risk and assuming that an appropriate adaptive system was fitted to all the cars in a real-world sample of recent frontal crashes involving European passenger cars.

Results: From the accident data sample the chest was the most frequently injured body region at an AIS 2+ level in frontal impacts (7% of front seat occupants). The proportion of older vehicle front seat occupants (>64 years) with AIS 2+ injury was also greater than the proportion of younger occupants. Additionally, older occupants were more likely to sustain seat belt–induced serious chest injury in low- and moderate-speed frontal crashes. In both front seating positions, the low SBL provided the best chest injury protection, without increasing the risk to other body regions. In severe impacts, the low SBL allowed the driver to move dangerously close to the steering wheel. Compared to the driver side, greater ride-down space on the passenger side gave a higher potential for using the low SBLs. When applying the AIS 2+ risk reduction findings to the weighted accident data sample, the risk of sustaining an AIS 2+ seat belt injury changed to 0.9, 4.9, and 8.1% for young, mid, and older occupants, respectively, from their actual injury risk of 1.3, 7.6, and 13.1%.

Conclusions: These results suggest the potential for improving the safety of older occupants with the development of smarter restraint systems. This is an important finding because the number of older users is expected to increase rapidly over the next 20 years. The greatest benefits were seen at lower crash severities. This is also important because most real-world crashes occur at lower speeds.     

基于新数据分配法的线路板生命周期清单分析

针对目前生命周期评价清单分析中数据有效性差,以及线路板生产重金属废水和危险废物污染大的问题,在生命周期清单分析中引入行业分配系数,即根据行业和产品的不同分别确定物耗、能耗和污染物排放分配系数;并根据质能守恒原理设计了新数据分配算法,将各类分配系数代入该算法,将多种类产品的混合数据分配到各单种类产品中;最后运用该方法对线路板进行生命周期清单分析,得到了线路板行业的分配系数及单面板、双面板和多层板的生命周期清单。结果表明:新分配算法优于目前常用的以相对质量进行数据分配的方法;在线路板生命周期全过程中,产品生产和报废处置两阶段对环境影响最大;生产阶段最大的污染是危险固废,而非传统认识中的重金属废水;电力消耗是线路板生命过程中的主要能耗。     

舰载环境振动摇摆特性测试分析

目的研究舰船在不同航行状态、不同海况下的振动和摇摆响应特性。方法在舰船特征位置布设加速度传感器和倾角传感器,利用数据采集与分析系统对海上航行状态下舰船的振动加速度和摇摆角度信号进行数据采集和信号分析。结果海上测试获取了大量实测数据,通过数据分析得到了某型舰船的振动和摇摆特性。结论对舰船在一定条件下的典型振动特性和摇摆特性有了初步认识,为舰载环境条件的参数积累和武器系统在舰载环境下的适应性及可靠性研究提供了重要的参考和依据。     

A Faster and Economical Approach to Floodplain Mapping Using Soil Information

Flood inundation maps play a key role in assessment and mitigation of potential flood hazards. However, owing to high costs associated with the conventional flood mapping methods, many communities in the United States lack flood inundation maps. The objective of this study is to develop and examine an economical alternative approach to floodplain mapping using widely available soil survey geographic (SSURGO) database. In this study, floodplain maps are developed for the entire state of Indiana, and some counties in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington states by identifying flood‐prone soil map units based on their attributes. For validation, the flood extents obtained from SSURGO database are compared with the extents from other floodplain maps such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency issued flood insurance rate maps (FIRMs), flood extents observed during past floods, and flood maps derived using digital elevation models. In general, SSURGO‐based floodplain maps (SFMs) are largely in agreement with other flood inundation maps. Specifically, the floodplain extents from SFMs cover 78‐95% area compared to FIRMs and observed flood extents. Thus, albeit with a slight loss in accuracy, the SSURGO approach offers an economical and fast alternative for floodplain mapping. In particular, it has potentially high utility in areas where no detailed flood studies have been conducted.     

基于超效率SBM的中国省际工业化石能源效率评价及影响因素分析

工业占据我国最大的化石能源终端消耗,评价中国工业化石能源效率对于提高我国工业化石能源效率和实现节能减排目标具有重要意义.本文运用包含非期望产出的超效率SBM模型评价中国30个省(直辖市、自治区)和三大区域(东部、中部、西部)2006—2011年间的工业化石能源效率,运用Tobit回归模型分析工业化石能源效率的影响因素,并给出各区域节能减排潜力.研究结果表明:北京、天津、上海等地区每年的工业化石能源效率指数均远远领先于其他省份;东部区域效率值以明显的优势高于中部和西部区域;西部区域的效率值比较平稳;中部区域内部各地区效率值比东部和西部区域集中.Tobit回归分析结果表明,地区GDP、经济结构、外商直接投资、工业新增固定投资和地理位置位于东部对地区工业化石能源效率有积极影响;产业结构和地理位置位于中部对地区工业化石能源效率有消极影响;地区人均GDP对地区工业化石能源效率没有显著性影响.东部地区油品和天然气节能潜力较大,中部地区煤炭节能潜力较大,西部地区煤炭和天然气节能潜力较大;中部和东部地区是工业CO2减排的重点.基于以上研究本文给出了3点建议提升工业能源效率.     

Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk‐prone small Caribbean islands

Post‐catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004—with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases—regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric‐based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives‐based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability.     

利用连续GPS资料分析芦山7.0级地震区域地壳变形特征

2013年4月20日,龙门山断裂带南段四川芦山附近发生7.0级地震,造成较严重地震灾害及其次生灾害。为研究地震区域地壳变形特征,利用芦山地震震中周边陆态网GPS连续站2010-2013年的观测资料,得到发震区域水平运动速度场和垂直形变场,获得距震中较近站点的同震位移;利用站间基线时间序列和应变参数时间序列得到了区域应变积累背景,并结合块体运动信息分离方法,进一步分析了震前可能存在的异常形变信息。从中得知:芦山地震发震区域处于块体挤出的"分流"地带,地壳水平变形量较小。站间基线QHBM-SCSN和QHBM-SCXJ在2012年下半年均出现偏离原有运动速率的趋势。SCXJ站时间序列信息分离结果显示,其N向和E向应变贡献分量在2012年也有曲线转折现象。