全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃对淮河中上游径流影响预估

论文应用第5次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)中5个全球气候模式(Global Climate Models,GCMs)和3种典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)在全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃下的预估结果,分析了淮河中上游地区未来的气候变化特征。进一步基于SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)水文模型定量预估了气候变化对该区域径流量的影响,并量化了预估结果的不确定性。结果表明:SWAT模型在淮河中上游对月径流量具有较好的模拟能力。在全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃下,淮河中上游年平均气温分别较基准期(1986—2005年)增加1.1℃和1.7℃;年降水量较基准期分别相应增加4%和7%;基于SWAT模型预估的年径流量较基准期分别增加5%和8%。未来气候变化不会改变月径流分布特征,年内径流仍集中在盛夏和初秋(6—9月)。预估的月丰水流量明显增加,尤其当全球增温达到2.0℃后,出现洪涝的风险明显增大。未来降水量和径流量预估都存在较大的不确定性,不确定性主要来源于GCMs,在全球增温2.0℃下预估的不确定性更大。     

Improved recovery of repeat intoxicated drivers using fingernails and blood spots to monitor alcohol and other substance abuse

Objectives: This study reports the results of a pilot program in Kenosha County that used a combination of direct biomarkers extracted from blood spots and nails to monitor repeat intoxicated drivers for their use of alcohol and drugs with a detection window spanning from 3 weeks to several months. The objectives were to test whether the direct biomarkers phosphatidylethanol (PEth), ethylglucuronide (EtG), and 5 drug metabolites would (1) help assessors obtain a more objective evaluation of repeat offenders during the assessment interview, (2) allow for timely identification of relapses and improve classification of drivers into risk categories, and (3) predict recidivism by identifying offenders most likely to obtain a subsequent operating while intoxicated (OWI) offense within 4 years of enrollment in the program.

Methods: All (N = 261) repeat offenders were tested using PEth obtained from blood spots and EtG obtained from fingernails; 159 participants were also tested for a 5 drugs of abuse nail panel. Drivers were tested immediately after the assessment interview (baseline) and at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after baseline. Based on biomarker results and self-reports of abstinence, offenders were classified into different risk categories and required to follow specific testing timelines based on the program's decision tree.

Results: The baseline analysis shows that 60% of drivers tested positive for alcohol biomarkers (EtG, PEth, or both) at the assessment interview, with lower detection rates (0–11%) for the 5 drug metabolites. The comparison of biomarkers results to self-reports of abstinence identified 28% of all offenders as high risk and assigned them to more frequent testing and more intense monitoring. The longitudinal analysis shows that 56% (completers) of participants completed the program successfully and the remaining 44% (noncompliant) terminated prematurely. Two thirds (68%) of the completers were able to reduce or control their drinking and one third relapsed at least one time during their mandated monitoring periods. After a brief intervention by the assessors, 79% of relapsers tested negative for biomarkers in their repeat tests. The rearrest analysis showed that offenders classified in the noncompliant and relapsers groups were 7 times more likely to receive a new OWI 4 years after enrollment compared to drivers classified as abstainers or controllers. Refractory drivers were monitored the longest and reported no subsequent rearrests.

Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the benefits of more individualized interventions with repeat OWI offenders and calls for further development of multimodal approaches in traffic medicine including those that use direct alcohol biomarkers as evidence-based practices to reduce recidivism.     

活性炭纤维对水中酚类化合物的吸附特性

研究了活性炭纤维(actived carbon fiber,ACF)对模拟废水中苯酚、对氯苯酚、对硝基苯酚的吸附特性.采用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)对ACF的表面结构进行了表征.通过静态吸附试验,采用吸附热力学探讨了ACF对苯酚、对氯苯酚、对硝基苯酚模拟废水的机制,计算了有关的热力学函数.结果表明,ACF对它们的吸附速率很快,在酸性条件下吸附效果较好,相同条件下,去除率是苯酚(87%)<对氯苯酚(96%)<对硝基苯酚(99%).ACF对这3种物质的吸附都是自发的放热反应,属于物理吸附.吸附等温线能用Dubinin-Radushkevieh方程较好地拟合.     

分段进水生物接触氧化工艺处理河道污水的试验研究

选择滇池入湖污染负荷最高的大清河为对象,以分段进水生物接触氧化(SFBC)工艺对河道污水开展了分流处理的试验研究,已完成冬季枯水期、春季枯水期及夏季丰水期3个时期的研究.结果表明.SFBC工艺对水质变化具有很好的适应性,调整各时期的运行参数,可以使COD及TP的去除率分别稳定在50%和40%左右,但TN的去除受水温及溶解氧等的影响很大,在逐渐稳定后去除率可达到20%左右.接种活性污泥可以加快装置的启动.但总体去除效果不及来水自然驯化的污泥.随着运行时间延长以及来水带入河道底泥的影响.有无接种污泥在处理效率上的差别逐渐消失.     

宝钢中厚板分公司煤干燥机除尘系统风量调整技术探究

文章针对宝钢股份中厚板分公司炼铁厂煤干燥机除尘系统吸尘点冒灰,粉尘无组织排放超标的现象进行了测试分析,数据表明主要由除尘系统风量匹配不佳、吸尘点风量不合理造成。笔者通过不断调整阀门及风机档板开摩,测试调整后的风量、除尘性能、岗位粉尘浓度等参数,确定了一个合理的系统风量,不仅可以达到环境排放及职业卫生的要求,而且充分挖掘了除尘系统潜力,达到了节能降耗、经济运行的目的,同时对类似除尘系统风量匹配不佳、扬尘等问题也形成了有效的解决方案。     

衡阳丰乐五号西瓜空心畸形事件调查及气候影响分析

2009年6月衡阳丰乐五号西瓜出现空心、畸形现象,果农经济损失惨重。经相关部门多次调查发现,5月下旬持续低温阴雨天气是造成该事件发生的主要原因,栽培管理不当导致灾损进一步发展。历史数据分析表明,衡阳5月低温天气发生频率为67.57%,主要出现在上旬后期—中旬前期。进入新世纪以后,低温发生频率减少,强度减弱。对西瓜提前栽种似乎更加有利,但由此所带来的风险更大,为了保险起见,应大力推进设施栽培,采用小拱架双膜覆盖等栽培技术。     

One century record of contamination by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and polychlorinated biphenyls in core sediments from the southern Yellow Sea

Sixteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and 28 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured at a 2-cm interval in a core sample from the middle of the southern Yellow Sea for elucidating their historical variations in inflow and sources. The chronology was obtained using the 210Pb method. PAHs concentrations decreased generally with depth and two climax values occurred in 14–16 cm and 20–22 cm layers, demonstrating that the production and usage of PAHs might reach peaks in the periods of 1956–1962...     

珠江口地区表层水中氯酚化合物污染研究

采用固相微萃取、气-质联用方法,测定分析了珠江口、横门水道及鱼塘表层水中氯酚(CPs)的污染特征。结果显示:USEPA优先控制的四种CPs类化合物在珠江口地区水体中检出率达到98.75%,不同水体氯酚污染程度由高到低的顺序为横门水道>珠江口>鱼塘。参照有关标准,珠江口地区CPs残留水平对环境及人类生活产生危害的风险可能性较低。多元回归分析表明,铁、锰总含量与总CPs和PCP含量存在显著负相关。     

入海污染物总量分配技术研究初探

实践表明,要实现海域环境保护的管理目标,必须对入海污染物排放总量进行控制。本文通过分析总量分配的关键技术与核心问题,针对等比例分配方法、费用最小分配方法、按贡献率削减排放量分配方法以及数学规划分配方法进行了初步探讨,并研究了总量分配技术中的公平性问题,为入海污染物的总量分配提供科学参考。     

基于分形方法确定合肥大兴地区土壤中Cd元素的异常下限

在土壤元素异常下限值的确定对环境地球化学评价具有重要意义,传统异常下限值计算方法仅适用于元素含量数据呈正态分布的情况,而事实上土壤元素含量的空间分布极其复杂,很可能具有多重分形分布特征,元素背景和异常有各自独立的幂指数关系。本文探讨利用分形方法确定典型工业区土壤中Cd元素的异常下限值。基于分形的含量一面积方法确定了合肥大兴地区（典型工业区）土壤中污染元素Cd的异常下限值为0．445mg／kg,并根据该异常下限值圈定了异常范围。同时与传统方法（平均值加两倍标准离差）确定的土壤中Cd元素异常下限值及异常范围进行了对比分析,结果显示,分形方法圈定的异常区域是有效的、合理的,控制了区内主要的导致土壤Cd元素污染的企业。