西安市大气中多环芳烃的季节变化及健康风险评价

对西安市2009年6月-2010年5月空气中的总悬浮颗粒（TSP）和气态样品进行了连续采样,利用GC—MS对16种PAHs进行分析。∑PAHs浓度（气相＋颗粒相）范围为39．93～1032．46ng／m^3,平均值为197．34ng／m^3;其中,冬季大气中∑PAHs浓度最大,相对浓度的范围为31．21％～72．98％,而夏季的浓度最小;检测出16种2～6环的PAHs,其中以3—4环为主。利用特征分子比值法和因子分析进行源解析,发现研究区PAHs的主要来源为燃煤和机动车尾气排放。通过苯并（a）芘（BaP）等效毒性（BEQ）和苯并（a）芘等效致癌浓度（BaPE）进行健康风险评价,结果显示,西安大气中PAHs的毒性具有明显的季节差异,特别是秋季和冬季大气中PAHs对人类的健康存在较大的潜在威胁。     

连片生态浮床对微污染河水的净化效果

选取漕桥河的支流庙尖浜作为实验河段,以睡莲(Nymphaea alba)、菖蒲(Acorus calamus Linn)和水芹(Oenan-the javanica(Blume)DC)作为微污染水体净化的浮床植物,研究连片生态浮床的净化能力随季节的变化和浮床面积对连片生态浮床净化能力的影响。结果显示,秋-冬-春季节内植物的净化能力随季节变化呈"U"型,相应的河水水质的变化呈一个倒置的"U"型;在一定营养负荷和植物正常生长状况下,沿水流方向,氮、磷含量随浮床面积的增加而降低——春季时,随浮床面积增加,菖蒲区对TN的去除率由8.6%增加到26.7%,TP的去除率由17.1%增加到58.2%,水芹区对TN和TP的去除率最高可达22.0%和28.0%。研究表明连片生态浮床是河道水质改善的有效可行的方法之一,可为太湖入湖河流的营养物质控制提供科学依据。     

东湖典型区域间隙水中营养盐的时空分布

以富营养化程度严重的浅水湖泊东湖为研究对象,通过持续采样调查,分析并比较了3个典型采样点柱状沉积物间隙水中营养盐的垂直分布和季节变化特征,结果表明东湖沉积物间隙水中营养盐浓度最高值一般出现在-5 cm以上,-5～-10 cm之间有一个快速降低的过程,-10～-26 cm之间趋于稳定,但也有小幅的波动;冬季间隙水中营养盐浓度明显低于其他季节,夏秋两季略高。分析认为沉积物间隙水中营养盐浓度受附近污染源直接影响较大,与上覆水水质有一定相关性,但不显著。间隙水中营养盐的季节变化主要因为冬季污染排放减少加速了间隙水中营养盐向上覆水的扩散、减少了水中营养盐在沉积物表层的沉积,以及温度降低导致微生物活动减少进而降低了有机物的矿化分解量。并且认为常规疏浚深度就可以有效移除东湖表层污染严重的沉积物     

高台位旱地石灰性紫色土培肥研究

本文研究了高台位旱地石灰性紫色土的肥力退化因子,并针对紫色母岩矿质养分丰富、易风化成土的特点,以一种培肥耕作法-聚土免耕耕作法培肥土壤。结果表明,采用此耕作法的土壤具有防蚀、抗旱、培肥和自调能力,能提高系统生产力。     

BAYESIAN MODELS OF FORECASTED TIME SERIES1

Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF) combines a prior distribution, which describes the natural uncertainty about the realization of a hydrologic process, with a likelihood function, which describes the uncertainty in categorical forecasts of that process, and outputs a posterior distribution of the process, conditional upon the forecasts. The posterior distribution provides a means of incorporating uncertain forecasts into optimal decision models. We present fundamentals of building BPF for time series. They include a general formulation, stochastic independence assumptions and their interpretation, computationally tractable models for forecasts of an independent process and a first-order Markov process, and parametric representations for normal-linear processes. An example is shown of an application to the annual time series of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume forecasts.     

EFFECTS OF RATE STRUCTURE KNOWLEDGE ON HOUSEHOLD WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: Socioeconomic determinants of individual household water use were estimated using regressions of these characteristics with actual household water use for winter and summer. Results were disaggregated between those consumers who were aware of an increasing block rate price structure and those who were not. Most of the informed group members believed that this price structure did result in significant reductions in water use. Nevertheless, overall water use was greater for the informed group. The determinants of water use were found to differ between informed and uninformed users as well as between winter and summer. The uninformed users were influenced by a larger set of variables in each season than the informed group. In winter, the informed group members with swimming pools and/or arid landscaping used less water than their uninformed counterparts. Summer water use increased with length of tenancy in home for the uninformed group but not for informed, while increasing with ownership for informed consumers.     

COST REDUCTIONS DUE TO SEASONAL VARIATION IN MUNICIPAL WASTE WATER TREATMENT LEVELS1

ABSTRACT: Varying treatment levels to meet seasonal variation in assimilative capacity of streams can reduce total costs of treatment. A mathematical model of a Pennsylvania stream based on a theoretically sound approximation of the physical relationships underlying the distribution of DO in a river system was used to determine discharge constraints for an economic optimization model which produced estimates of sewage treatment cost savings. Increasing the number of flow periods during the year enhances cost reducing opportunities even when land application processes are considered. Also, the least cost treatment process for year around operation may not be the least costly under multiple flow period management.     

寒区典型湿地浮游植物功能群季节变化及其与环境因子关系

安邦河湿地是一个典型的寒区湿地,本文运用功能群的方法对其浮游植物季节变化进行研究,并运用多元分析方法分析其与环境因子的关系.安邦河湿地共有浮游植物种8门104种,划分为14个功能群,分别是C、D、E、F、H1、J、Lo、M、MP、N、P、SN、X1和Y.其中重要功能群是C、D、E、J、Lo、N、P和Y.浮游植物的功能群组成季节变化明显,春季以功能群E和Lo生物量所占比例最大,分别为27.45%和20.49%;夏季以功能群D、J、P占优,为28.59%、18.53%和19.47%;秋季以功能群J、P为主,占39.65%和13.34%.可见,安邦河湿地浮游植物功能群的季节变化呈现为E+Lo→D+J+P→J+P的特点,反映了水环境特征:春季低水温低营养盐、夏季高水温高营养盐且水体混浊、秋季水温和营养盐均较高.运用冗余分析(RDA)分析浮游植物功能群与环境因子之间的关系,结果显示水温(WT)、无机氮(DIN)和溶解性磷酸盐(SRP)是安邦河湿地浮游植物功能群季节变化的主要环境因子.     

紫色土丘陵坡地土壤微生物群落的季节变化

采用稀释平板法和Biolog-ECO微平板技术,以剌槐（Robinia pseudoacacia）天然次生林为研究对象,研究湖南省衡阳市紫色土丘陵坡地表层（0~10 cm）土壤微生物群落的季节变化特征。结果表明：1）夏季,土壤微生物总数,细菌数量、真菌数量和放线菌数量最高,分别为16.34×106、16.09×106、10.43×104和14.64×104 cfu·g-1干土,春季次之：11.61×106、11.45×106、5.00×104和10.65×104 cfu·g-1干土,秋季最低：5.87×106、5.78×106、4.67×104和4.08×104 cfu·g-1干土,春、夏和秋3季的差异达显著水平（P<0.05）;2）在培养168 h时,土壤微生物C源平均颜色变化率（Average well color development, AWCD）以夏季最高（1.20）,春季次之（0.88）,秋季最低（0.83）;3）土壤微生物功能多样性表现为夏季明显高于春、秋2季（P<0.05）,夏季的Patrick丰富度指数（R）（28）、Shannon-Wiener指数（H）（3.22）、Simpson指数（D）（0.96）和McIntosh指数（U）（8.20）显著高于春、秋2季（P<0.05）,而春、秋2季的R（23,24）、H（3.06,3.08）、D（0.95,0.95）和U（5.90,5.91）无显著差异（P>0.05）;4）氨基酸类、聚合物类和羧酸C源类是衡阳紫色土丘陵坡地土壤微生物偏好且利用率较高的C源类型;5）主成分分析表明,土壤微生物群落的C源利用可分为2类,一类在夏季,另一类在春、秋2季,其得分系数的分布范围分别为（2.59~6.00,2.43~5.09）和（-7.65~-1.90,-6.38~-3.43）。研究结果为科学评价湖南省衡阳市紫色土丘陵坡地土壤生境质量退化和恢复过程中微生物特征的变化提供了本底值参考。     

皖南地区铜陵市大气颗粒物污染特征及潜在源研究

利用2018年3月—2021年2月环境和气象数据对皖南地区铜陵市大气颗粒物的污染特征和潜在贡献源进行了系统性研究.铜陵市大气颗粒物污染具有明显的季节变化特征,冬季污染物浓度最高,PM_2.5和PM₁₀平均为（60.3±31.0）μg·m^-3和（89.2±42.2）μg·m^-3.计算发现PM_2.5/PM₁₀超过0.5,铜陵市的大气颗粒物污染问题与细颗粒物关系密切.后向轨迹聚类分析表明铜陵市大气颗粒物的输送路径具有季节性差异.春季以西北、东北和西南方向气流为主,占比83.73%;夏季以东南和南部方向气流为主,占比82.90%;秋季以东北气流为主,占比51.00%;冬季则是以北方和西北气流为主,占比69.81%.其中,冬季气流轨迹所对应的PM_2.5和PM₁₀的浓度最高,平均为59.7和92.0μg·m^-3;夏季最低,平均为23.8和43.8μg·m^-3.潜在源贡献因子（WPSC...