Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

生草栽培对三种岭南水果种植系统的生态经济影响评价

综合运用能值、经济与土壤生态学分析方法,以传统清耕模式为对照,定量研究了生草栽培对荔枝(Litchi chinensis Sonn)、龙眼(Dimocarpus longan Lour)和番荔枝(Annona squamosa Linn)三种岭南水果种植系统的生态经济影响。整合系统物质流、能量流和货币流,综合分析其自然资源基础、经济发展状况及可持续发展程度,并将土壤有机质的消耗纳入不可更新自然资源能值投入分析,为岭南水果业生草栽培与否提供科学依据。结果表明,生草栽培可以将荔枝和龙眼种植系统的能值可持续性从传统清耕模式的0.16和0.46分别提升到0.17和0.47;而使番荔枝种植系统的能值可持续性从传统清耕模式的0.59降至0.45。同时,生草栽培可提高荔枝和番荔枝种植系统的经济效益,而降低龙眼种植系统的经济效益。所有案例结果均表明,生草栽培可降低果园土壤有机质的消耗。     

Soft systems thinking and social learning for adaptive management

The success of adaptive management in conservation has been questioned and the objective-based management paradigm on which it is based has been heavily criticized. Soft systems thinking and social-learning theory expose errors in the assumption that complex systems can be dispassionately managed by objective observers and highlight the fact that conservation is a social process in which objectives are contested and learning is context dependent. We used these insights to rethink adaptive management in a way that focuses on the social processes involved in management and decision making. Our approach to adaptive management is based on the following assumptions: action toward a common goal is an emergent property of complex social relationships; the introduction of new knowledge, alternative values, and new ways of understanding the world can become a stimulating force for learning, creativity, and change; learning is contextual and is fundamentally about practice; and defining the goal to be addressed is continuous and in principle never ends. We believe five key activities are crucial to defining the goal that is to be addressed in an adaptive-management context and to determining the objectives that are desirable and feasible to the participants: situate the problem in its social and ecological context; raise awareness about alternative views of a problem and encourage enquiry and deconstruction of frames of reference; undertake collaborative actions; and reflect on learning.     

贵州草海湿地农田渠系水质空间分异特征及影响分析

为了解草海湿地农田渠系水质现状、空间分异特征及影响因素,于2011年秋季对草海湿地进行大空间尺度的采样,分析了氮磷等理化指标,采用单因子污染指数法和营养状态指数法分别对农田渠系水质和湖泊营养状态进行评价.结果表明,草海湿地农田渠系水质污染严重,多数水质为V类或劣V类,总氮和溶解氧是水体中的主要污染因子;上游水质劣于下游,尤其是上游靠近县城区域的水质最差;多等级排水渠系对氮磷具有一定的截留作用,干渠V级水质好于低级渠系水质;不同的土地利用方式对水质的影响不同,城镇用地>集中式村落>农田;草海湿地水体上、中、下游营养水平分别为中度富营养、轻度富营养和中营养,外源污染物的累积和湖泊营养水平的提高导致其沼泽化,而流域不合理的土地利用结构加剧了沼泽化的进程.     

Trade‐Offs between Cattle Production and Bird Conservation in an Agricultural Frontier of the Gran Chaco of Argentina

Intensification of food production in tropical landscapes in the absence of land‐use planning can pose a major threat to biological diversity. Decisions on whether to spatially integrate or segregate lands for production and conservation depend in part on the functional relations between biological diversity and agricultural productivity. We measured diversity, density, and species composition of birds along a gradient of production intensification on an agricultural frontier of the Argentine Chaco, where dry tropical forests are cleared for cattle production. Bird species diversity in intact forests was higher than in any type of cattle‐production system. Bird species richness decreased nonlinearly as cattle yield increased. Intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems, those in which forest understory is selectively cleared to grow pastures of non‐native plants beneath the tree canopy, produced 80% of the mean cattle yield obtained in pastures on cleared areas and were occupied by 70–90% of the number of bird species present in the nearest forest fragments. Densities of >50% of bird species were significantly lower in open pastures than in silvopastoral systems. Therefore, intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems may have the greatest potential to sustain cattle yield and conserve a large percentage of bird species. However, compared with low‐intensity production systems, in which forest structure and extent were intact, intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems supported significantly fewer forest‐restricted bird species and fewer frugivorous birds. These data suggest that the integration of production and conservation through intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems combined with the protection of forest fragments may be required to maintain cattle yield, bird diversity, and conservation of forest‐restricted species in this agricultural frontier. Compromisos entre la Producción de Ganado y la Conservación de Aves en una Frontera Agrícola del Gran Chaco de Argentina     

Bolted flange joints equipped with FBG sensors in industrial piping systems subjected to seismic loads

The vulnerability of major-hazard industrial plants to natural hazards has been recognized as an emergent issue whose importance is underlined by the Sendai Framework, established immediately after the Tohoku earthquake of 2011, in Japan. Hence, seismic risk analysis is of paramount importance as testified by the intense research activity that characterized the last years. In this respect, structural health monitoring can represent a valuable tool able to strongly help the decision-making phase. Along this main vein, optical fibers (OFs) represent a class of sensors able to both monitor critical conditions, as leakage of hazardous material, and activate safety barriers, if any. More precisely, optical fibers represent an economic solution, whose characteristics appear particularly suitable for dangerous environments like major-hazard plants. However, investigations relevant to their use for seismic monitoring of chemical/petrochemical plants are rather limited, especially when subject to strong dynamic excitations. As a result, this paper deals with the analysis of optical fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) applied to bolted flange joints (BFJ) under cyclic loadings. More precisely, two experimental programs, i.e., a cyclic test on a single BFJ and a series of shaking table tests on BFJs of a multicomponent system, demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed monitoring systems in detecting hazardous conditions and, thus, their potential use in conjunction with safety barriers.     

Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from a subtropical coastal embayment (Moreton Bay, Australia)

Surface water methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) concentrations and fluxes were investigated in two subtropical coastal embayments (Bramble Bay and Deception Bay, which are part of the greater Moreton Bay, Australia). Measurements were done at 23 stations in seven campaigns covering different seasons during 2010-2012. Water-air fluxes were estimated using the Thin Boundary Layer approach with a combination of wind and currents-based models for the estimation of the gas transfer velocities. The two bays were strong sources of both CH₄ and N₂O with no significant differences in the degree of saturation of both gases between them during all measurement campaigns. Both CH₄ and N₂O concentrations had strong temporal but minimal spatial variability in both bays. During the seven seasons, CH₄ varied between 500% and 4000% saturation while N₂O varied between 128 and 255% in the two bays. Average seasonal CH₄ fluxes for the two bays varied between 0.5 ± 0.2 and 6.0 ± 1.5 mg CH₄/(m²·day) while N₂O varied between 0.4 ± 0.1 and 1.6 ± 0.6 mg N₂O/(m²·day). Weighted emissions (t CO₂-e) were 63%-90% N₂O dominated implying that a reduction in N₂O inputs and/or nitrogen availability in the bays may significantly reduce the bays' greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. Emissions data for tropical and subtropical systems is still scarce. This work found subtropical bays to be significant aquatic sources of both CH₄ and N₂O and puts the estimated fluxes into the global context with measurements done from other climatic regions.     

中国并网光伏发电系统的经济性与环境效益

太阳能已成为世界各国公认的最为理想的替代能源,其应用规模不断扩大.但光伏发电系统高昂的成本,成为限制其发展的关键因素.本文应用净现值和单因素敏感性分析工具,建立了光伏发电成本的计算模型,以我国34个省会城市作为研究案例,对井网光伏发电系统进行了经济性和环境效益分析.结果显示:在目前政府初始投资补贴一半的情况下,并网光伏发电成本介于0.83-2.29元/kWh之间.即便在光照资源最丰富的地区,并网光伏发电仍无法与常规能源发电相竞争.在影响并网光伏系统发电成本的诸多影响因素中,政府初始投资补贴额度、水平面太阳能辐射量和投资密度的敏感性最强;CDM资金的注入对光伏发电成本的降低具有积极的作用.激励政策方面,出台合适的、稳定的上网电价对启动国内光伏市场最为有效.光伏发电系统的环境效益是指光伏发电的减排环境效益扣除系统发电环境成本的余额.经计算并网光伏发电具有显著的环境效益,其环境效益为0.0165元/kWh.本研究对于国家制定光伏发电的激励政策和成本分摊机制具有重要的参考价值.     

近50年鄱阳湖五大流域降水变化特征研究

基于鄱阳湖流域在江西省内部分对应的79县市气象站1960～2006年逐日降水观测资料,采用线性回归的方法分别研究五大流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数等3要素的变化趋势,并用Mann法进行了变化趋势的显著性检验,用距平与均方差之比达到15和20作为气候异常检验指标,对各流域的各时间序列进行了异常检验,采用了Mann Kendall法对各时间序列进行突变检测。结果表明：（1）各流域的年降水量变化趋势基本一致,年降水量与年暴雨日数密切相关;饶河流域强降水事件较多,降水强度大,赣江中游流域降水时间分布相对较均匀,强降水事件较少;（2）各流域年降水量、暴雨日数总体呈波动上升趋势,20世纪90年代以来暴雨日数异常偏多的概率最大;（3）年降水日数以20世纪80年代中期为界,之前呈波动上升趋势,之后呈波动下降趋势,2002年至今各流域降雨日数明显偏少;（4）各流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数均未出现趋势性的突变;（5）近50年来鄱阳湖流域降水时间分布不均的情况加剧,旱涝灾害风险增加。     

Accounting for the mismanagement of tropical nearshore fisheries

The underlying reason for the mismanagement of tropical nearshore fisheries is the implementation of policies and programs based on Western models and approaches, coupled with an inability and/or unwillingness to consider non-Western alternatives of empirically proven value. Such attitudes are embedded in donor and development agency behavior, and are demonstrated by the temperate bias in conventional approaches to fisheries education and management, with a corresponding lack of understanding of tropical milieux, and in the persistence of various prejudices. Adaptive Management, The Ecosystem Approach, Local Knowledge, and Protected Areas are discussed from the perspectives of Western models and pre-existing Pacific Island systems as alternative models. Given the parlous condition of the global environment and resources, the best non-Western pre-existing models and Western approaches must be blended to provide sustainable solutions.