铁路运输安全事故灰色预测方法研究

近年来 ,我国铁路运输发展迅猛 ,尤其是列车运行多次提速 ,列车运行密度加大 ,对铁路运输安全管理不断提出了新的要求。依靠科技进步 ,尽量防止或减少安全事故的发生 ,要应用安全信息技术 ,使安全管理人员对铁路运输安全现状及未来事故发展趋势有所了解 ,提高安全防范意识及事故处理能力 ,同时还要不断提高员工的安全意识和安全文化素质 ,这些方法对于提高安全管理水平 ,降低事故的发生 ,保护人民的生命安全与健康具有重要意义。铁路运输安全事故预测技术就可很好解决上述问题。笔者应用灰色预测理论 ,建立了铁路运输安全事故预测模型 ,开发了安全事故预测软件系统 ,并以某铁路运输企业为例 ,介绍了研制的灰色预测系统软件的应用效果     

铅芯橡胶支座等效线性分析模型参数的研究

针对目前铅芯橡胶支座等效线性分析模型动力参数选取不够合理的现状 ,笔者通过对铅芯橡胶支座水平动态试验分析 ,系统研究了铅芯橡胶支座等效线性分析模型参数与其几何结构及外加动力荷载特性的关系。研究结果表明 :铅芯橡胶支座等效线性分析模型参数 (水平耗能、等效刚度及等效阻尼比 )主要由其本身的几何构造及组成材料决定 ,且在往复加、卸载循环过程中具有较好的稳定性。笔者对试验数据进行数学统计分析 ,归纳出一些经验公式 ,为其等效线性化动力分析模型参数的合理选取提供了计算方法 ,从而提高其动力分析结果的安全性。     

一个研究街道峡谷流场及浓度场特征的三维数值模式

目前，研究街道峡谷内流场及机动车排放污染物的扩散行为特征所采用的主要方法为：采用野外测试法和物理模拟法，而采用三维数值模拟方法研究此问题的工作很少。本文创建了一个研究微尺度街道峡谷内流场及机动车排放污染物扩散特征的三维数值模式，即首次采用伪不定常方法，利用K——E闭合方案，建立了一个模拟城市街道峡谷内流场及污染物扩散特征与街道峡谷风场、街道几何结构及两侧建筑物高度对称性之间的复杂关系的三维数值模式。经过与实际监测资料及风洞实验对比，结果表明此三维模式具有较好的模拟精度，能够很好模拟峡谷内的风场及街谷几何结构对街道峡谷内流场及浓度场特征的影响，有很强的实用性。     

农业非点源模型--AGNPS概述

非点源污染在国内外已越来越受到关注，其中农业非点源又占相当大的份额。由于非点源污染产生机制的特殊性。导致实地调查和试验研究不易实行。故而数学模型方法在这一领域尤其能够体现出它的优点，对它的研究也受到了学术界越来越多的重视。目前，国外已开发出了大量的非点源数学模型，而其中A3NPS模型是应用较为广泛者之一，并已在我国得到了应用。基于此，文中介绍了AGNPS模型的基本结构，主要包括水文、侵蚀和化学污染物的迁移三部分。自从该模型被建立以来，国外已对它进行了大量的研究，本文从研究最多的几个方面进行了讨论，即计算网格的优化、模型输入输出与GIS的结合以及模型的风险性等，以期为在我国的具体应用提供一定的参考。     

Implications of Land Use Changes on Carbon Dynamics and Sequestration—Evaluation from Forestry Datasets, India

Forests and soils are a major sink of carbon, and land use changes can affect the magnitude of above ground and below ground carbon stores and the net flux of carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Studies on methods for examining the future consequences of changes in patterns of land use change and carbon flux gains importance, as they provide different options for CO₂ mitigation strategies. In this study, a simulation approach combining Markov chain processes and carbon pools for forests and soils has been implemented to study the carbon flows over a period of time. Markov chains have been computed by converting the land use change and forestry data of India from 1997 to 1999 into a matrix of conditional probabilities reflecting the changes from one class at time t to another class time t+1. Results from Markov modeling suggested Indian forests as a potential sink for 0.94 Gt carbon, with an increase in dense forest area of about 75.93 Mha and decrease of about 3.4 Mha and 5.0 Mha in open and scrub forests, if similar land use changes that occurred during 1997–1999 would continue. The limiting probabilities suggested 34.27 percent as dense forest, 6.90 as open forest, 0.4 percent mangrove forest, 0.1 percent scrub and 58 percent as non-forest area. Although Indian forests are found to be a potential carbon sink, analysis of results from transition probabilities for different years till 2050 suggests that, the forests will continue to be a source of about 20.59 MtC to the atmosphere. The implications of these results in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on open and scrub forests and their contribution to carbon source from land use change and forestry sector are discussed. Some of the mitigation aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and forestry sector in India are also reviewed in the study.     

Possible Utilization of Silica Gel Sludge for the Removal of Phenol from Aqueous Solutions: Laboratory Studies

This paper discusses the adsorption capacity of silica gel sludge for phenol removal from aqueous solution. Kinetic experiments showed that phenol adsorption was completed after 2 h. Adsorption isotherms were measured for phenol from aqueous solution onto silica gel sludge under various pHs and temperatures. Results showed that the adsorption capacities for phenol was increased as pH decreased from 6.5 to 2. Temperature also was found to affect the adsorption isotherm. As temperature increases from 30 to 50°C, the adsorption capacity increases. The adsorption equilibrium of phenol on silica gel sludge was described by the linear Freundlich and Langmuir models. Furthermore, results showed that the isotherm parameters fit both linearized Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption isotherms. The Freundlich and Langmuir parameters at optimum pH was found as K _f=2.89, 1/n=0.23 and K _d=22.0, q _m=7.98, respectively. Whereas, for those at optimum temperature it was observed as K _f=2.87, 1/n=0.16 and K _d=20.93, q _m=7.91, respectively.     

What do economic simulations tell us? Recent mergers in the iron ore industry

This paper investigates the European Commission's decision to allow a merger between two Brazilian iron ore mining companies, CVRD and Caemi, using data on the Direct Reduced Iron pellet market. By using a simulation model, we can directly simulate the total welfare effects from the merger and hence evaluate the merger from a new perspective. The results from our simulations suggest that the welfare effects are negative from the merger between CVRD and Caemi, which supports the conclusion drawn by the European Commission decision. By performing different simulations between hypothetical merger candidates, our results show that only mergers between small candidates have the potential to be welfare enhancing.     

避雷针保护范围验算数学模型的确定

主要针对现有国家标准中避雷针保护范围确定的问题 ,即多是给予形状上的描述 ,而在实际设计或验算过程中通常计算量很大且重复工作多 ,笔者为应对上述的问题 ,提出了新的思路和新方法 ,建立了避雷针保护范围计算的数学模型 ,且编制了相应软件。     

STREAM DISCHARGE PREDICTION VIA A GRID BASED SOIL WATER ROUTING WITH PADDY FIELDS1

ABSTRACT: A grid based daily hydrologic model for a watershed with paddy fields was developed to predict the stream discharge. ASCII formatted elevation, soil, and land use data supported by the GRASS Geographic Information System are used to generate distributed results such as surface runoff and subsurface flow, soil water content, and evapotranspiration. The model uses a single flow path algorithm and simulates a water balance at each grid element. A linear reservoir assumption was used to predict subsurface runoff components. The model was applied to a 75.6 km² watershed located in the middle of South Korea, and observed stream flow hydrographs from 1995 and 1996 were compared to model predictions. The stream flow predictions of 1995 and 1996 generally agreed with the observed flow, resulting in a Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R² of 0.60 and 0.62, respectively. The hydraulic conductivity for percolating water through the saturated layer affected baseflow generation. The levee height of the paddy influenced the time and magnitude of the surface runoff, depending on irrigation management. The model will be used for making low flow management decisions by evaluating the role of each land use to stream flow, especially in case of paddy decrease by gradual urbanization of a watershed.     

建筑物塌陷损坏评价的物元模型及其应用

矿产采掘和地下水资源开采造成的地表塌陷是一类较为严重的地质灾害,地表的塌陷必然会对依附于地球表层的建筑物造成不同程度的损害,建筑物损害的量化评价是地表塌陷损害工程评估的一项重要内容。本文应用可拓学的理论和方法,基于可拓学中的可拓集合变换和相关函数分析法,给出了受塌陷影响建筑物损害评价的经典域物元和节域物元,并建立了建筑物损害量化评价的物元模型。通过具体的计算示例说明了该方法的应用步骤,并对该方法的合理性进行了验证,为建筑物塌陷损坏评价提供一种新的方法。