Addressing social attitudes toward lethal control of wildlife in national parks

The extraordinary population growth of certain ungulate species is increasingly a concern in agroforestry areas because overabundance may negatively affect natural environments and human livelihoods. However, society may have negative perceptions of killing wildlife to reduce their numbers and mitigate damage. We used an online survey that included a choice experiment to determine Spanish citizens’ (n = 190) preferences toward wildlife population control measures related to negative effects of ungulate overabundance (negative impacts on vegetation and other wildlife species and disease transmission to livestock) in 2 agroforestry national parks in Spain. We used latent-class and willingness-to-pay in space models to analyze survey results. Two percent of respondents thought a national park should have no human intervention even if lack of management may cause environmental degradation, whereas 95% of respondents favored efforts to reduce damage caused by overabundant ungulate species. We estimated human well-being losses of survey respondents when sustainable effects of deer overabundance on the environment became unsustainable effects and well-being gains when sustainable effects transitioned to no visible effects. We found that the type of wildlife-control program was a very relevant issue for the respondents; indirect control in which killing was avoided was the preferred action. Sixty-six percent of respondents agreed with the option of hunters paying for culling animals to reduce ungulate impacts rather than management cost coming out of taxes, whereas 19% of respondents were against this option and willing to pay for other solutions in national parks. Our results suggest that killing wildlife in national parks could be a socially acceptable tool to manage overabundance problems in certain contexts, but it could also generate social conflicts.     

Ambient air quality trends and driving factor analysis in Beijing, 1983-2007

The interaction between pollution sources change and implementation of air pollution control measures was the main driving factor that caused the variation in air quality.     

基于集成分析的环渤海地区河流硝酸盐污染解析

近几十年全球人口剧增,粮食生产及燃料消耗都增加了地表水中的氮负荷,而地表水是连接大陆氮库和海洋氮库的重要通道,地表水中的硝酸盐的增加将直接导致河口及沿海硝酸盐浓度的增加,因此研究近海河流的氮污染情况、确定影响因素将会为近海营养物质的控制及水环境管理提供重要信息.以环渤海地区的入海河流为主要研究对象,通过收集公开数据建立环渤海地表水硝酸盐数据库集成分析,研究入海河流的水体硝酸盐的时空污染特征及其与各影响因素之间的关系.结果表明,环渤海区域地表水中硝酸盐浓度的变化范围在0.0~76.4 mg·L~(-1),与溶解氧、总氮、总磷和电导率有显著的相关关系(p=0.01).在空间变化方面,黄河下游及浑太河上游流域硝酸盐污染较为严重.在除去来自城市污废水排放的人工河道带来的硝酸盐浓度异常值后,丰水期(平均浓度4.55 mg·L~(-1))与平水期(平均浓度5.39 mg·L~(-1))的硝酸盐浓度的平均水平较枯水期(平均浓度4.03 mg·L~(-1))更高,且浓度的变化范围(丰水期:0.00~34.90 mg·L~(-1);平水期:0.00~31.00 mg·L~(-1))亦大于枯水期(0.00~25.64 mg·L~(-1)).影响因素方面,硝酸盐浓度与降水量有显著相关性(r=0.122,p=0.01).土地利用相关性研究表明耕地与建设用地是硝酸盐的主要来源,林地和草地对硝酸盐污染有改善作用.硝酸盐的入海通量约为33.4×10~4t·a-1.     

DDTs对水生哺乳动物的组织残留基准初步研究

作为一种曾经广泛使用的氯化烃杀虫剂,DDT及其主要代谢产物DDE和DDD(合称为DDTs)是一类典型的具有持久性和生物累积性的有毒污染物。亲脂性和持久性使得DDTs可以通过食物链进行生物放大,从而对处于高营养级的水生哺乳动物造成严重的毒害作用。在综述DDTs对哺乳动物的毒性研究基础上,采用物种敏感度分布(species sensitivity distribution,SSD)和毒性百分数排序法(toxicity percentile rank method,TPRM)推导DDTs保护水生哺乳动物的组织残留基准(Tissue Residue Guideline,TRG)。使用SSD和TPRM得到的TRG分别为23.9和22.7 ng·g-1食物(湿重)。相应的,DDTs保护水生哺乳动物的水质基准分别为188.2和178.7 pg·L-1。依据研究得到的DDTs的组织残留基准及其在鱼类体内的含量评估对水生哺乳动物的风险。研究结果可用于评估DDTs对水生哺乳动物的生态风险,并为DDTs的风险管理提供理论依据。     

有机化合物生物富集因子的计算机预测研究

有机化合物在生物体内的富集,通常用生物富集因子(bioconcentration factor,简称BCF)来表达,这是化合物生态环境毒性评估的重要指标。为合理预测有机化合物是否易于生物富集,首先从美国环保局网站收集了624个具有不同BCF值的化合物,然后采用7种分子指纹结合5种机器学习方法(包括支持向量机、C4.5决策树、k最近邻法、随机森林法和朴素贝叶斯法),构建了化合物BCF的分类预测模型,所有模型均采用独立外部验证集进行验证。其中,使用Chemo Typer分子指纹结合支持向量机方法得到的二分类模型,整体预测准确度最好,达到了85.4%。通过采用信息增益、频率分析等方法,进一步确定了化合物中易于引起生物富集的关键子结构,包括芳基氯、二芳基醚、氯代烷烃等。研究中所用到的方法为有毒化学品的生态风险评价提供了良好可靠的预测工具。     

Pedestrian behavior and exit selection in evacuation of a corridor - An experimental study

In this paper, we present an experiment whose purpose was to study evacuees’ exit selection under different behavioral objectives. The experiment was conducted in a corridor with two exits located asymmetrically. This geometry was used to make most participants face a nontrivial decision on which exit to use. We analyze the behavior on a macroscopic level using statistical methods. Our results suggest that the members of an evacuating crowd may not be able to make optimal decisions when assessing the fastest exit to evacuate. In addition, the egress time of the whole crowd turns out to be shorter when the evacuees behave egoistically instead of behaving cooperatively. This is an interesting result because many studies on real emergencies show that evacuees tend to cooperate and act altruistically.     

Factors influencing the implementation of a safety management system for construction sites

The objective of the study was to determine the influential safety factors that governed the success of a safety management system for construction sites. The number of incidences among construction workers and the level of awareness on matters concerning safety were also determined. The study involved a self-administered three-part questionnaire among the workers and interviews with industry experts involved in brick-laying, concreting and in related assorted trades. Part A of the questionnaire concerned personal particulars, Part B involved training and experience and Part C was based on 28 industry-accepted safety factor elements. The construction sites ranged from high rise buildings, landed houses and infrastructure renovation. The sample size was 275. From the survey it was found that the most influential safety factor was personal awareness followed closely by communication. Suggestions and recommendations on equipment design and improved work practices and procedures to improve the efficiency and productivity of construction workers were proposed. Management was urged to get their workers better informed about safety matters.     

超细微粒灭火剂抑制单室火灾的试验研究

通过试验测量燃烧区温度的变化过程,研究了超细微粒灭火剂在单室火灾模型下与4种不同类型火焰的相互作用、灭火时间和效果。结果表明,超细微粒灭火剂具有较好的全淹没灭火能力。当1 000g超细微粒灭火剂施放后,位于微粒灭火剂流动路径上的无遮挡火焰(中央火和角落火)能够被迅速扑灭,灭火时间分别为3.9 s和7.2 s;对于火源功率较小的顶棚火,由于火羽流及热泳力的作用,微粒灭火剂能迅速扩散到顶棚,从而能在短时间内将其扑灭,灭火时间约6.3 s;对于遮挡火,其灭火时间较长,约14.3 s。微粒灭火剂浓度对灭火时间有较大影响。当微粒灭火剂的喷射质量为500 g时,虽然中央火、角落火和遮挡火均能被扑灭,但灭火时间都较喷射1 000 g灭火剂时有较长的延长,灭火时间分别为8.1 s,13.9 s和22.2 s。对于需要灭火剂微粒扩散较远距离后灭火的顶棚火,虽然灭火剂在热羽流和热泳力作用下能扩散到顶棚,但因浓度太低,同时由于其他3处火焰熄灭后,灭火室内的氧气消耗速率降低,从而使顶棚火得到足够的氧气,燃烧反应进一步加强,温度反而逐渐升高,不足以将其熄灭。     

Co在某极低放废物填埋场土壤中的迁移行为初步研究

选择某拟建填埋场土壤为研究对象,研究Co在土壤中的静态分配试验和动态迁移,以评价场址的安全性。结果表明:初始质量浓度为5 mg/L时,Co的Kd值为753 mL/g,土壤对Co的吸附模式符合Freundlich模式;核素初始质量浓度的升高导致静态试验Kd值增大;静态试验与动态试验的相互印证说明,可以通过动态试验较好地预测核素在极低放填埋场中的迁移速度;Co在该土壤中的迁移速度小于0.24 m/a,Co在进入地表水前已经衰变至非常低的水平,不会对生物圈造成污染。     

滑脱流动影响的低渗储层甲烷运移采出规律研究

为了达到低渗储层甲烷抽采过程甲烷采井优化设计和产能准确预测的目的,基于现场测井数据,采用非线性流体数值计算方法,以柳林煤层甲烷试验采区为例,对滑脱流动影响的煤层甲烷采场压力非线性分布和产能预测进行研究。数值计算结果表明:低渗储层甲烷运移采出受气体滑脱流动影响显著,考虑滑脱流动影响时,采场压力衰减区域变大,气体速率变快;对比测井产能历史拟合数据发现,计算所得的滑脱流动影响的产能预测值更加准确。由计算结果验证了单井开采具有采场压力影响范围较小,产能较低等缺点,并得出五采出四压裂的布井方式是既能够准确预测产能又能够更好避免井间干扰效应的最优布井方式。