Fractions of permanence – Squaring the cycle of sink carbon accounting

As vegetation is an unstable dynamicsystem, emission credits generated bycarbon (C) sink projects under the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) KyotoProtocol suffer from an inherent permanencerisk. There are basically two approacheshow to balance greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions andC uptake in vegetation. The merit ofthe so-called `ton-year approach' is todestroy the fiction of infinity whentalking about permanent sequestration. Themerit of the temporary credits is todestroy the fiction of comparabilitybetween technological emission reductionand sequestration in natural systems. Thispresent article discusses the pros and consof both approaches, which have beenbrought forward as more or less unrelatedalternatives. By making use of bothmethodologies and providing a link betweenboth proposals on permanence in CDMforestry, the article puts forward theproposal of leasing reduction certificates.     

The Kyoto Protocol: provisions and unresolved issues relevant to land-use change and forestry

This paper describes the relevant text of the Kyoto Protocol and its implications for land-use change and forestry (LUCF) activities and addresses some of the technical issues that merit further consideration and clarification before the treaty comes into force. Although the phrasing of the Protocol is sometimes ambiguous and the opportunities limited, the Protocol does provide for some selected forest-related activities to be used to meet national commitments for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. To implement the forest-related portions of the Protocol, most importantly: (1) a clear definition for the word ‘reforestation' is required, (2) contradictory wording in Article 3.3 needs to be clarified to establish how credits are to be measured, (3) further thought should be given to the sentence in Article 3.7 which provides that countries with a net carbon sink in LUCF in 1990 cannot include emissions from land-use change in their 1990 baseline, whereas countries with a net carbon source in LUCF can include those emissions in their 1990 baseline, (4) the rules and baseline issues for joint implementation and the clean development mechanism need to be clarified and (5) inclusion of additional forest management activities needs to be considered.     

我国发展低碳农业的主要措施研究

在全球气候变暖和能源危机的背景下,农业是温室气体主要排放源之一,低碳农业作为应对气候变化的农业行动,越来越受到人们的重视。低碳农业的目标是减缓温室气体,实现高效率、低能耗、低排放、高碳汇的高效农业。在推动我国低碳农业发展的措施方面,总结起来主要包括减少碳排放、增加碳汇和采用其他相应的技术措施相结合。也就是通过一系列相应的技术措施和基础设施建设,减少温室气体总量排放的同时,增加耕地、草地和林地吸收二氧化碳的量,从而实现低碳农业的可持续发展。     

贵州森林碳汇现状及增汇潜力分析

区域层面的森林碳收支估算研究有利于为整体层面持续固碳增汇的森林经营提供科学参考,评估森林碳汇对减少区域内碳排放的贡献。采用温室气体清单估算法,对2000、2005和2010年贵州省森林碳汇进行估算,结果表明:贵州省森林碳汇从15.380×106增长到22.447×106、24.314×106 t CO2,呈稳定增长趋势,占全省碳排放量的6.73%～10.35%。贵州省尚有161.70×104 hm2宜林地,如果能用于发展碳汇林业,每年可吸收CO2达2.379×106 t,30年内将吸收CO2达71.370×106 t。贵州省正处于碳排放增长阶段,相对于森林碳汇而言,全区域碳减排工作任重道远,森林碳汇能力有很大的提升空间。     

关于对流层大气N2O氮、氧稳定同位素负荷平衡的初步探讨

对流层大气Ｎ２Ｏ的氮、氧稳定同位素负荷由地表和海洋释放的富轻同位素的Ｎ２Ｏ与平流层回流的富重同位素的Ｎ２Ｏ来平衡,但Ｋｉｍ和Ｃｒａｉｇ的计算方案无法使之平衡＾〔１〕。笔者根据全球Ｎ２Ｏ释放源最近的年释放量估算值,对Ｋｉｍ和Ｃｒａｉｇ＾〔１〕的计算方案进行了初步改进,在考虑土壤Ｎ２Ｏ生成过程中氮、氧稳定同位素的分馏效应和氧同位素的纬度变化效应后,推论出全球Ｎ２Ｏ释放源最近的年释放量估算值能使对流层大     

浙江省人为镉排放源与汇时空格局解析

近年来,随着工农业的迅猛发展,大量的人为镉排放对我国生态环境安全构成了严重威胁,而污染源识别在污染治理中具有举足轻重的作用.为此,本文以工农业集产区浙江省为案例,通过文献调研,构建了浙江省人为镉工农业排放因子清单,并采用清单核算法对浙江省人为镉排放的源汇进行了估算.结果表明,浙江省人为镉排放在1995—2017年期间基本呈上升趋势,从1995年的39 t增加到2007的141 t,自2007年以后,浙江省的镉排放量达到了一定的峰值,其排放量在140 t·a^-1左右.其中75%以上的镉通过固废的形式排放进入环境,而进入大气和水体的镉分别约占15%和10%.在所有排放源中,原煤燃烧的镉排放贡献率最大,占总排放量的50%以上;其他排放源从大到小依次是钢铁生产、有色金属冶炼、造纸生产、水泥生产、塑料生产、有色金属开采、油料消费、磷肥生产、蓄电池生产、平板玻璃生产和陶瓷生产.各个地区镉排放表现出较大的空间差异,2015年杭州市和宁波市镉排放量已达到20 t以上,以杭州和宁波为中心的北部区域远远高于南部区域.因此,建议未来浙江省镉污染排放源头治理重点是减少原煤燃烧,其次是钢铁生产、有色金属冶炼、造纸生产、水泥生产,尤其北部区域.     

我国发展低碳农业的主要措施研究

在全球气候变暖和能源危机的背景下,农业是温室气体主要排放源之一,低碳农业作为应对气候变化的农业行动,越来越受到人们的重视。低碳农业的目标是减缓温室气体,实现高效率、低能耗、低排放、高碳汇的高效农业。在推动我国低碳农业发展的措施方面,总结起来主要包括减少碳排放、增加碳汇和采用其他相应的技术措施相结合。也就是通过一系列相应的技术措施和基础设施建设,减少温室气体总量排放的同时,增加耕地、草地和林地吸收二氧化碳的量,从而实现低碳农业的可持续发展。     

碳中和评估与预测预估方法研究进展

人类活动排放的大量温室气体已经造成多种不利影响,为缓解这些不利影响,已有多个国家提出了碳中和目标。碳中和评估与预测预估是实现碳中和目标的科学基础,准确估算碳排放量和碳去除量是进行碳中和评估的关键,可以帮助决策者制定减排和增汇政策。本文梳理了碳排放量和碳去除量的估算方法以及预测预估方法的原理和特点,以期为准确评估碳中和现状以及预测预估未来情景下实现碳中和目标的可能性和路径提供方法论参考。碳排放量的估算方法可以分为用于支撑碳交易市场的碳排放核算方法、面向消费侧碳排放的估算方法和基于因素分解法的碳排放计量方法三大类;前两类方法主要用于历史碳排放量的盘点,第三类方法可用于碳排放量的预估。陆地生态系统碳去除量估算方法可以分为统计模型法、机理模型法和遥感模型法三大类;第一类方法应用最早但估算结果较粗糙,第二类方法模型应用最多但估算结果存在较大的不确定性,第三类方法观测范围大但缺乏预测预估能力。近年来,模型分析法在碳中和评估和预测预估上得到越来越广泛的应用。     

基于土地利用变化的陕西省植被碳汇提质增效优先区识别

在“双碳”目标背景下,陆地植被生态系统碳汇是实现碳中和目标的重要方式。为有效识别植被碳汇服务功能提质增效的优先区,利用InVEST模型定量评估陕西省植被碳储量时空演变特征及分布格局,分析土地利用/覆被类型变化对碳储量变化的影响,研究林草生态建设碳汇增长空间差异,确定林草生态建设提质增效对象区域。结果表明：（1）陕西省土地利用类型主要以耕地、林地、草地为主,土地利用类型转移变化也主要发生在三者之间;（2）1980― 2020年陕西省生态系统碳储量总体增加91.88×10⁶ t,增幅3.16%,呈现出“总体上南高北低、局部地区明显过高或过低”的地带性分布特征;（3）退耕还林（草）工程对碳汇能力提升效果明显,存在全局空间相关性,表现为一定的空间趋同集聚现象;（4）陕北地区为生态保护修复工程极优先区和优先区,陕南地区为中等优先区,关中地区为一般优先区。研究基于不同区县生态系统碳汇年均增长率的差异,确定生态治理优先区域,可为实现生态修复工程主导模式的分区管理以及碳汇能力提质增效提供参考。     

An equivalence factor between CO2 avoidedemissions and sequestration – description andapplications in forestry

Concern about the issue of permanence andreversibility of the effects of carbon sequestrationhas led to the need to devise accounting methods thatquantify the temporal value of storing carbon that hasbeen actively sequestered or removed from theatmosphere, as compared to carbon stored as a resultof activities taken to avoid emissions. This paperdescribes a method for accounting for the atmosphericeffects of sequestration-based land-use projects inrelation to the duration of carbon storage. Firstly,the time period over which sequestered carbon shouldbe stored in order to counteract the radiative forcingeffect of carbon emissions was calculated, based onthe residence time and decay pattern of atmosphericCO₂, its Absolute Global Warming Potential. Thistime period was called the equivalence time, andwas calculated to be approximately 55 years. From thisequivalence time, the effect of storage of 1 tCO₂ for 1 year was derived, and found to besimilar to preventing the effect of the emission of0.0182 tCO₂. Potential applications of thistonne.year figure, here called the equivalencefactor, are then discussed in relation to theestimation of atmospheric benefits over time ofsequestration-based land use projects.