Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

CFD-based assessment and visualization of the failure consequences of LPG tankers

This paper presents a simulation analysis of the explosions following an LPG leak and visualizes the consequences of the accident to reduce the consequences of the LPG leak explosion. Firstly, this paper proposes a CFD numerical simulation-based method for visualizing the consequences of LPG tanker failure. The method combines satellite maps and CFD numerical simulation data to visualize the consequences of LPG leaks and explosions, taking into account the influence of obstacles on the danger range of leaks and explosions; Secondly, this paper applies the method to a liquefied petroleum gas accident that occurred in the Wenling section of the Shenhai Expressway and performs CFD numerical simulation on the accident process and visualizes the consequences of the accident. Therefore, this method can provide a theoretical reference for the prior prevention of LPG accidents and the analysis of the consequences of accidents, as well as certain practical guidance instructive.     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

珠江三角洲机动车排放控制措施协同效应分析

预测了2015年珠江三角洲机动车空气污染物和温室气体排放量,设计了6类单一控制、技术控制、结构控制以及综合控制措施的情景,并运用基准线年排放清单编制和协同效应坐标系法分析了污染物与温室气体减排的协同效应.结果表明,按目前机动车保有量增长趋势,2015年污染物和温室气体将以18%~120%的幅度增加;各控制措施下污染物和温室气体排放量均有下降,且均具有正向的协同效应,但减排的贡献差异较大.6类单一控制措施中淘汰黄标车和结构性控制措施分别对各污染物和温室气体的削减效果最明显,减排幅度均在40%以上,且正向协同效应突出,但相比其他措施,结构性控制措施实施难度大.     

考虑松动圈影响的钻孔瓦斯抽放合理封孔长度确定研究

以王行庄矿11071工作面为工程试验地点,通过超声波和钻孔窥视现场测试,结合理论计算,开展了瓦斯抽采煤巷松动圈范围和瓦斯抽放钻孔合理封孔长度确定的研究。确定了王行庄11071工作面二1煤层围岩卸压区宽度为8.87 m,极限平衡区宽度为9.87 m,合理封孔深度为10 m;通过极限平衡法理论计算得到的结果与超声波法、钻孔窥视法的测试结果基本相符。     

煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程仿真研究

煤矿发生火灾后会生成大量有毒气体并产生火风压,烟气在火灾动力的影响下出现状态紊乱,研究煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程对控制火情有着重要意义。基于国内外研究现状,对燃烧及风流特点进行分析,建立了煤矿火灾烟气流动数学模型,并利用CFD软件进行仿真。研究表明:无通风工况下的烟气为对称流动;随着风速增加,出口处温度降低,烟气向风流入口处的流速减小。     

气相色谱法测定水中的三氯乙醛

建立了一种用气相色谱法测定水体中三氯乙醛的方法。水样先以石油醚萃取,除去高沸点化合物,加入氯化钠破乳,然后再用石油醚—乙醚混合溶剂(V/V=2:1)萃取3次,萃取液经色谱柱分离,用电子捕获检测器检测。最低检出浓度可达0.008 mg/L,线性关系良好(相关系数γ=0.992~0.998),一般共存物质不干扰测定。     

脱除SO2活性炭的再生方法

分别用溶剂和气体对脱除SO2后失活的活性炭进行了再生。在固定床反应器上考察了再生后活性炭的脱硫性能。实验结果表明：用溶剂再生时,质量分数为60％的HNO3溶液的再生效果最好,活性炭的再生率达到80％以上。用气体再生时,400℃左右时的再生效果最好,活性炭的再生率达到70％以上。再生后活性炭的比表面积和pH是衡量活性炭再生效果的重要参数。在实际脱硫生产中,用H2O对失活活性炭进行反复洗涤再生,是一种经济、实用的方法,活性炭的再生率达60％以上。     

密相塔烟气脱硫技术试验研究

建立了密相塔烟气脱硫试验装置,并对烧结烟气进行了脱硫试验研究,验证了该工艺的可行性,并研究了主要因素对脱硫效率的影响.结果表明,钙硫比和近绝热饱和温度(approach to adiabatic saturation temperature,AAST)是影响脱硫效率的显著因素,循环灰浓度是保证系统脱硫效率的关键因素.在Ca/S比为1.2、密相塔出口烟气AAST=15℃、循环灰浓度为400g/m3条件下,系统能连续稳定运行,脱硫效率达92.5%以上,系统出口烟气中SO2浓度在150 mg/Nm3以下.     

流化催化裂化烟气脱硫助剂的制备及其脱硫活性

采用溶胶-凝胶法制备锌铝助剂,该助剂于700℃焙烧后与流化催化裂化（FCC）催化剂进行机械混合,制得混合催化剂;在FCC烟气工业模拟装置上考察混合催化剂的脱硫活性,用混合催化剂的脱硫活性来反映锌铝助剂的脱硫性能。实验结果表明,氧化锌质量分数为10％的锌铝助剂的脱硫活性最佳,脱硫率达62．5％。采用红外光谱和X射线衍射（XRD）对锌铝助剂的脱硫机理进行了研究,红外分析结果表明,弱的L酸中心有利于锌铝助剂脱硫,XRD分析结果表明,锌铝助剂在锌铝尖晶石结构尚未完全形成时,存在较多的晶格缺陷,能够有效地吸附烟气中的SOx,将其转化为H2S。