Revealing the socioeconomic impact of small disasters in Colombia using the DesInventar database

Small disasters are usually the product of climate variability and climate change. Analysis of them illustrates that they increase difficulties for local development—frequently affecting the livelihoods of poor people and perpetuating their level of poverty and human insecurity—and entail challenges for a country's development. In contrast to extreme events, small disasters are often invisible at the national level and their effects are not considered as relevant from a macroeconomic standpoint. Nevertheless, their accumulated impact causes economic, environmental and social problems. This paper presents the results of an evaluation of the DesInventar database, developed in 1994 by the Network for Social Studies in Disaster Prevention in Latin America. In addition, it proposes a new version of the Local Disaster Index developed in 2005 within the framework of the Disaster Risk and Management Indicators Program for the Americas, with the support of the Inter‐American Development Bank.     

小流域管理与规划信息系统研制

以江苏省溧阳市同官片流域为例,通过建立小流域管理与规划信息系统,探求流域治理新模式,以促进流域经济的良性发展。简要介绍了基于小流域的系统设计和建立方法,系统的功能及其应用实例。     

Reexamining the Minimum Viable Population Concept for Long‐Lived Species

For decades conservation biologists have proposed general rules of thumb for minimum viable population size (MVP); typically, they range from hundreds to thousands of individuals. These rules have shifted conservation resources away from small and fragmented populations. We examined whether iteroparous, long‐lived species might constitute an exception to general MVP guidelines. On the basis of results from a 10‐year capture‐recapture study in eastern New York (U.S.A.), we developed a comprehensive demographic model for the globally threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii), which is designated as endangered by the IUCN in 2011. We assessed population viability across a wide range of initial abundances and carrying capacities. Not accounting for inbreeding, our results suggest that bog turtle colonies with as few as 15 breeding females have >90% probability of persisting for >100 years, provided vital rates and environmental variance remain at currently estimated levels. On the basis of our results, we suggest that MVP thresholds may be 1–2 orders of magnitude too high for many long‐lived organisms. Consequently, protection of small and fragmented populations may constitute a viable conservation option for such species, especially in a regional or metapopulation context. Reexaminando el Concepto de Población Mínima Viable para Especies Longevas Resumen     

平原河网地区不同类型农村小管径排水管道数值模拟

农村污水未经处理直接排放导致农村环境受到污染,目前我国大部分农村缺乏完善的污水收集系统,已经铺设排水系统的农村大多存在管网设计与农村排水特点不符、管网建设资金过大等问题。为了解决上述问题,建议在农村建设小管径排水系统进行污水收集,针对平原、丘陵及山区3种类型的农村排水管网的水力学特性进行了探讨,选取其中的管段进行了数值模拟。结果表明：弯管部分压力变化趋势与速度变化趋势相反,弯管处湍动能较大;平原和丘陵的管道设计充满度为0.3~0.9,设计流速为0.7~0.9 m·s⁻¹,山区的管道设计充满度为0.1~0.3,设计流速约为1 m·s⁻¹。上述研究丰富了对小管径排水系统管道内部流态的认识,可为更合理的农村排水管网设计及风险位点的预测提供参考。     

好氧堆肥在中、小型城镇污水厂达标改造中的应用

叙述了好氧堆肥工艺的原理、特点及其在中小型污水厂达标改造中的应用。     

中小型城市安全社区建设探析

为了探求我国中小城市开展安全社区建设的方法,提升中小城市的安全管理水平,本文先是探究了我国安全社区创建现状,总结了目前我国安全社区建设中存在的问题,然后对中小城市的安全现状进行了分析,阐述了中小型城市推进安全社区创建的必要性,最后依照大型一线城市开展安全社区建设的经验为中小城市安全社区建设提出了相应的对策,期望对中小城市创建安全社区有一定的借鉴意义。     

Hierarchical Bayes estimation of hunting success rates

Although most post-season harvest surveys are conducted at the state level, the effective management of wildlife populations often requires estimates of hunting success rate, hunting pressure and harvest at the sub-area (such as management unit, regional, or county) level.Sample sizes for some sub-areas are often very small or even zero. Because of small sample sizes, estimates for small sub-areas often yield unacceptably large standard errors. In this article, a hierarchical Bayes model is used to estimate hunting success rates at the sub-area level from post-season harvest surveys. The computation is done by Gibbs sampling and adaptive rejection sampling techniques. The method is illustrated using data from the Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey 1994 Spring Season. The Bayesian estimates are close to the frequency estimates for the sub-areas with large sample sizes and more stable than the frequency estimates for those with small sample sizes. The Bayesian estimates will be more useful to wildlife biologists in estab-lishing hunting regulation on small sub-areas at no additional survey cost.     

长江上游中小洪水天气学机理分析及致洪特征

基于1981~2012年长江上游128个中小洪水历史个例及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用普查及天气学分型方法,建立了纬向型、经向型、偏东气流型以及两高之间型4种致洪降水天气学概念模型,研究了各天气型致洪降水发生机理及相应中小洪水特征。得到以下结论:纬向型中高纬环流相对平直多波动,伴有明显冷平流南下,地面锋面位置略偏北。该类型强降水过程多,强度大,持续时间长,对应中小洪水多为双峰或多峰型,平均洪峰流量、过程增幅最强,洪水过程时间也最长。经向型环流中高纬贝加尔湖和东北地区为深厚低槽,中低层常伴有暖式切变线或低涡发展,中上层急流出口处的辐散以及冷平流四类型中最强。该类型雨带多呈东北-西南走向,中小洪水一般以单峰为主,其洪峰流量及过程增幅均较大,造成的洪水涨水较快,过程时间最短。纬向和经向型均为全流域降水型,但在金沙江北部、岷沱江、嘉陵江以及宜宾-宜昌常出现较高频次的60 mm以上较强面雨量。偏东气流型副高与热带气旋外围环流汇合北进,其强降水前后冷暖平流变化不明显,受地形强迫抬升影响,最易产生准静止型、团状、突发性强降水。该类型中小洪水以单峰为主,涨水快,洪峰流量及过程增幅均最小,强降水主要分布在嘉陵江和岷沱江两大流域。两高之间型多为"鞍"型场的环流配置,青藏高压与副高在流域上空形成南北向切变线,其动力和水汽条件均较弱。该类型降水强度较弱,稳定少动,累积降水量较大,洪水以单峰为主,双峰偶有发生,其洪峰流量、过程增幅均较大,洪水过程时间较长,强降水多位于岷沱江、嘉陵江和宜宾-重庆中部流域。     

大别山区诸佛庵镇深水河山洪灾害分析

综合下垫面条件、气象与水文信息,对皖西大别山区的诸佛庵镇“05．9”小流域暴雨,进行暴雨重现期和洪水过程分析计算。结合灾害特征,探讨其成因。在小流域风险洪水预估的基础上,从防灾减灾的角度提出对策性建议。