APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING1

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km² watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.     

WATER QUALITY MODELING OF ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURAL SCENARIOS IN THE U.S. CORN BELT1

ABSTRACT: Simulated water quality resulting from three alternative future land‐use scenarios for two agricultural watersheds in central Iowa was compared to water quality under current and historic land use/land cover to explore both the potential water quality impact of perpetuating current trends and potential benefits of major changes in agricultural practices in the U.S. Corn Belt. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to evaluate the effect of management practices on surface water discharge and annual loads of sediment and nitrate in these watersheds. The agricultural practices comprising Scenario 1, which assumes perpetuation of current trends (conversion to conservation tillage, increase in farm size and land in production, use of currently‐employed Best Management Practices (BMPs)) result in simulated increased export of nitrate and decreased export of sediment relative to the present. However, simulations indicate that the substantial changes in agricultural practices envisioned in Scenarios 2 and 3 (conversion to conservation tillage, strip intercropping, rotational grazing, conservation set‐asides and greatly extended use of best management practices (BMPs) such as riparian buffers, engineered wetlands, grassed waterways, filter strips and field borders) could potentially reduce current loadings of sediment by 37 to 67 percent and nutrients by 54 to 75 percent. Results from the study indicate that major improvements in water quality in these agricultural watersheds could be achieved if such environmentally‐targeted agricultural practices were employed. Traditional approaches to water quality improvement through application of traditional BMPs will result in little or no change in nutrient export and minor decreases in sediment export from Corn Belt watersheds.     

More Productivity with Fewer External Inputs: Central American Case Studies of Agroecological Development and their Broader Implications

A study of the impact of two agroecological development programs in central America was conducted in 1994, five years and fifteen years after the programmes had ended. Yields of maize and beans being achieved by those farmers involved in each program were, on the average, more than seven times the yields being achieved at the time of program initiation. Increases in yields and incomes were achieved through the use of a large number of innovations, involving especially soil retention measures, purchased organic matter, intercropped green manure/cover crops, natural pest control, crop diversification and crop rotations. Use of chemical fertilizer was reduced, herbicides avoided almost entirely, and several substitutes for pesticides are now used. These technologies, plus more recent innovations such as microscale water harvesting and precision planting, should enable small farmers around the world to increase productivity enough that the world can avoid major hunger over the next 30 years, without increasing substantially, if at all, the world's use of chemical inputs.     

小城镇环境保护规划存在的问题与对策

根据全国生态环境保护“十五”计划要求,在计划期间力争60％的小城镇完成环境保护规划,广西小城镇由于经济发展不平衡,部分小城镇还比较落后,且存在较多的环境问题,目前小城镇的环境保护规划尚未得到有效的开展,因此应及时找出问题和差距,并根据存在的问题作出相应的对策,在计划期内是可以完成小城镇环境保护规划的目标,为广西小城镇的可待续发展提供环境保障。     

小型环境试验舱的研制及性能研究

自制小型环境试验舱的体积为0．17m^3，用产生甲醛的标准气体方法检验试验舱的稳定性、准确性及精密性。结果表明，试验舱稳定，无吸附，且有95％的精确性。通过测定试验舱内木板中甲醛释放量及释放规律检验试验舱的应用性能，测得甲醛释放规律与文献研究结果一致，表明该试验舱应用性能良好，因此该实验舱可用于检测室内装饰装修材料中污染物质释放量及释放规律的研究。     

THE APPLICATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELS TO SMALL WATERSHEDS HAVING MILD TOPOGRAPHY1

ABSTRACT: The application of hydrologic models to small watersheds of mild topography is not well documented. This study evaluates the applicability of hydrologic models described by Huggins and the Soil Conservation Service to small watersheds by comparing the simulated and actual hydrograph for both gaged and ungaged situations. The annual maximum rainfall events plus storms exceeding 2.5 inches from 25 years of rainfall and runoff data for two small watersheds were selected for the model evaluations. These storms had a variety of patterns and occurred on many different watershed conditions. Simulated and actual hydrographs were compared using a parameter which contained volume, peak, and shape factors. One-half of the selected storms were used to calibrate the models. For both models, there were no significant differences between the simulated and actual runoff volumes and peak runoff rates. Parameters obtained during the calibration process and relationships developed to estimate antecedent moisture and to modify tabulated runoff curve numbers were used to simulate the runoff hydrograph from the remaining storms. These remaining storms or test storms were simulated only once in order to imitate an ungaged situation. In general, both the Huggins and SCS model performed similarly on the test storms, but the level of model performance was lower than that for the calibration storms. For both models, the two-day antecedent rainfall was more important than the five-day in determining antecedent moisture and modifying tabulated curve numbers. The time of concentration which resulted in good hydrograph simulations was about three times larger than that estimated using published empirical relationships.     

THE CIRCUIT RIDING ORDINANCE ADMINISTRATOR: A SOLUTION TO SMALL COMMUNITY TECHNICAL INADEQUACIES1

ABSTRACT: Small, rural communities (less than 2500 population) in general do not have governmental staffs with the breadth required to satisfactorily implement and enforce a drainage ordinance. This fact has serious implications in rural Planning. Within a six-country rural area of Southwest Virginia, the circuit riding town manager program has been successfully conducted. The circuit riding town manager is a planning staff member who acts in the capacity of a town manager (assistant to the mayor) for five small towns, any one of which alone could not afford to support the services of such a professional. This note recommends that a circuit riding technical ordiance administrator program could be developed along the same lines. In this manner, the technical ordinance program for serveral small communities could be successfully implemented.     

SATELLITE MICROWAVE OBSERVATIONS OF SOIL MOISTURE VARIATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Results from studies in the Illinois-Indiana and Texas-Oklahoma areas indicate that satellite microwave observations at the 1.55 cm wavelength are responsive to relative moisture variations in the near surface layer of the soil. Because significant vegetation cover absorbs the 1.55 cm microwave emission from the soil, the target area must be predominately bare soil or low density vegetation cover for meaningful measurements to result. The 25 km resolution of the satellite sensor limits application of the microwave techniques to large areas such as watersheds or agricultural districts rather than individual fields. In general, at 1.55 cm. there is an inverse relationship between microwave brightness temperature and changes in soil moisture levels (as indicated by antecedent rainfall) in agricultural regions before the planting of crops or during the early growing season when vegetation cover is sparse. Even early season observations should be of great value in deciding on the time and type of crop planting and for initial irrigation scheduling when the root zone is still in close proximity to the surface.     

Organizational and Political Considerations in the Municipal Development of Small Hydropower1

ABSTRACT: The potential for hydroelectric power development at existing dams is great in oil dependent New England where there are over 10,000 dams presently in existence. Over 400 developments have been proposed in the region, the majority of which are small scale, and do not have major environmental impacts. Nevertheless, a variety of constraints may hinder development. A study of three efforts by municipalities in unique positions to develop hydropower reveals that organizational and political considerations are significant factors affecting development. Successful hydropower development requires: (1) the cooperation and interaction of citizens, government, and the private sector; (2) community interest and education; and (3) strong resolve.