Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

成都市小流域水环境治理模式和经验研究

根据成都市小流域治理的实际情况及污染控制现状,在资料分析和充分的现场调研基础上,对成都市2007年以来各地在小流域水污染防治方面的模式、经验和措施进行总结,并从中选择具有代表性的典型的小流域,对小流域治理工作进行详细分析探讨,对其采取措施、实施效果、推广价值等进行研究。     

预腐蚀铝合金材料裂纹萌生寿命评估

铝合金在航空工业中广泛应用,因此对于铝合金构件的寿命评估很重要。利用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)原位观测技术,研究了预腐蚀铝合金试件在循环应力作用下的疲劳裂纹萌生和扩展行为。结果表明腐蚀坑对于裂纹萌生扩展行为具有强烈的影响。基于局部应变法,提出了一种预测带有腐蚀损伤的铝合金疲劳裂纹萌生寿命的评估公式。     

对黑龙江省森工林区小城镇环境规划和管理的探索

首先界定了森工林区小城镇的定义;确定林区小城镇环境规划的技术方法,其中着重介绍了水、气、固体废物的环境预测方法;同时探讨了适用于森工林区的环境规划的原则和主要内容,综合以上几个方面提出针对森工林区小城镇的环境管理,应加强环境规划的合理性与科学性、加快林区环境整体治理、建立林区环境规划管理体系、完善林区小城镇基础设施建设,张显林区特色、突出生态建设。     

小城镇建设项目环境影响评价相关问题探讨——以聊城经济开发区蒋官屯小城镇建设项目为例

在中国的城市化进程中,小城镇建设发挥了重要的作用,引起了各级政府的重视。本文以聊城经济开发区蒋官屯小城镇建设项目为例,结合小城镇建设项目的特点,就小城镇建设项目的环境影响评价中相关问题进行了探讨,主要从环境影响评价的特点、评价的主要内容、评价重点、项目建设对环境的影响分析及外环境对项目的影响分析、生态及社会环境影响分析、公众参与、项目选址合理性分析、应特别关注的环境问题等几个方面进行阐述,以期为小城镇建设项目环境影响评价提供参考。     

植被净初级生产力对气候变化的响应研究——以黄土高原燕沟流域为例

Vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is a sensitive indicator to characterize the response of terrestrial ecosystems to the climate change. Projections of the NPP changes of the Loess Plateau under future climate scenarios have great significances in revealing the interactions among terrestrial ecosystems and climatic systems, as well as instructing future vegetation construction of this region. Here, we carried out a case study on the Yangou watershed in the Loess Plateau. Using the vegetation-producing process model (VPP) established for such small watersheds, we simulated the NPP of the Yangou watershed under different scenarios of climate changes. The results showed that the NPP significantly increased with the precipitation increasing and evidently decreased with the temperature increasing where the climate change occurred in the whole year or in the summer half year. However, where the climate change occurred in the winter half year, the increased precipitation had little effect on the NPP, and the increased temperature significantly reduced the NPP. There were clear differences among the response sensitivities of different vegetation types with trees and shrubs were more sensitive to the changes in temperature and precipitation than crops and grasses. Currently, the most favourable climate change scenario to the NPP in the Yangou watershed was T0P15 under which the precipitation increased by 15% and the temperature did not changed, in the whole year; in the meantime, the most unfavourable climate change scenarios was T2P-15 under which the precipitation declined by 15% and the temperature increased by 2℃, in the whole year.     

农村环境安全评价体系研究

农村环境安全是近年来国内研究的一个新领域,研究成果对我国新农村建设具有重要的指导意义.本文在小尺度水平上,建立了农村环境安全评价体系.采用由大到小、由点到面、逐层分解的方法,把整个评价体系分3个层次,21个具体指标,强调人口素质与人均耕地2个基本要素,突出有机固体废物资源化水平和经济发展水平对农村环境安全的影响.建立的农村环境安全评价体系具有层次简单、数据容易获得、运算方便、评价结果合理等特点.     

北京山区小流域治理措施综述

山区小流域综合治理,是中国治理水土流失的主要形式.近10年来,随着可持续发展概念的引入,山区小流域治理与经济开发、资源保护相结合的战略思想逐渐被人们认识和接受,实现流域的可持续发展,已成为当今小流域治理活动的准则.综述主要对北京山区小流域治理措施进行了总结,并指出小流域治理需要综合运用多种措施;小流域治理必须充分考虑流域特征,因地制宜,分类治理.     

Cladocerans under conditions of small river damming by man and beavers

In beaver ponds, the species diversity, abundance, biomass, and production of cladocerans and the amount of food consumed by them have increased and the composition of dominant species has changed as compared to those in the stretches of small rivers with running water or dammed by man. The stimulating effect of water from a beaver pond has been confirmed in laboratory experiments. The average number of juvenile Ceriodaphnia affinis produced by one female was considerably greater in this water than in the water from flowing and dammed (by man) river stretches.     

西北干旱区中小城市水价探析

为了促进西北干旱区中小城市的快速、稳定的发展,解决该地区中小城市的水资源短缺问题,以水价作为出发点,充分利用水价格的经济杠杆作用,制定出该地区中小城市的水价。以西北干旱区中具有代表性的城市石河子为例,通过实地调研,得到石河子居民、居民生活用水情况、现行水价、居民家庭节水情况、居民的心理承受水价以及平时生活的节水意识等情况,通过分析,得出居民的心理承受偏低,现行水价仍有一定的上调空间,调价范围为1.58~2.31元/m3,最高可调至4.11元/m3。结合石河子的水价,为西北干旱区的中小城镇的水价改革、提高水资源的利用率等提出一些切实可行的建议。