亚致死剂量溴氰菊酯对麦穗鱼谷胱甘肽S-转移酶活性的影响

本文研究了麦穗鱼Pseudorasbora parva谷胱甘肽S-转移酶的组织分布以及亚致死剂量的溴氰菊酯对其比活力和组织分布的影响.结果表明肝胰脏、肠、鳃、卵巢、肾、脾脏、鳔、肌肉谷胱甘肽S-转移酶(GSTs)活性分别占41.73%、14.31%、12.11%、10.10%、8.62%、5.23%、4.33%和3.58%.用溴氰菊酯亚致死剂量活体处理麦穗鱼120 h后,卵巢和肾GSTs的活性与对照组具有显著差异,活性提高1.85倍;肠和鳃的GSTs活性分别是对照组的1.40倍和1.44倍;对肝脏GSTs活性的诱导不显著.这表明溴氰菊酯对麦穗鱼不同组织部位诱导的时间效应和强度是不同的.     

阜新市大气污染分布规律研究

以阜新市1996-2000年大气环境监测数据为基础,采用污染负荷系数法,分析了半干旱区域的资源型城市大气污染分布规律,揭示了城市环境空气污染物随季节、年际、功能区变化的规律,并分析了形成这种规律的原因.结果表明,阜新市大气污染物的浓度具有明显的时空分布规律,时间上表现为年内冬强夏弱,年际间自1996年以来总悬浮颗粒和一氧化碳逐年减轻;空间上,空气污染物的浓度依功能区不同而异,交通区的污染状况最严重.     

面向生态城市建设的能源结构优化研究

基于信息熵分析了城市能源供应结构与能源消费结构的多样性,提出了生态城市能源结构优化的基础判据和约束判据.以厦门市为例,分析了城市能源结构自然演变趋势的缺陷,提出了实现生态城市建设的能源结构优化的控制方案,并判断其优化效果.结果表明,2020年前,基础情景下的厦门市能源供应结构多样性将减少,能源消费结构退化较显著,尤其是2015年前退化趋势加剧,且远远超过结构优化判据的约束条件.而通过采取提高能源生态效率,清洁燃料替代,新能源和可再生能源开发与利用,机动车用能调整强化等控制措施,2010年后厦门市未来能源结构总体上将明显优于系统自然演变结构,同时满足环境容量约束与倍数因子约束条件,从而为该市实现生态城市建设目标奠定基础.     

基于时间特征指数的水源地突发性污染事件应急评估方法研究

应急评估及其方法研究是建立水源地突发性污染事件应急机制的关键环节之一.在综合评价现有相关应急评估方法的基础上,根据水源地突发性污染事件的风险源不确定性、受体易损性以及需快速反应性等特征,提出了对突发性污染事件的危害影响程度进行应急评估的"时间特征指数"方法.选取了泄漏物质危害性、泄漏量、泄漏位置、流速和风速5项评估指标,计算得出能够反映突发性污染事件对取水口危害威胁性的综合指数.对上海市黄浦江上游水源地一起突发性污染事件进行了案例评估,结果表明该方法具有一定的科学性和可行性.     

Stigma in science: the case of earthquake prediction

This paper explores how earthquake scientists conceptualise earthquake prediction, particularly given the conviction of six earthquake scientists for manslaughter (subsequently overturned) on 22 October 2012 for having given inappropriate advice to the public prior to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009. In the first study of its kind, semi‐structured interviews were conducted with 17 earthquake scientists and the transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. The scientists primarily denigrated earthquake prediction, showing strong emotive responses and distancing themselves from earthquake ‘prediction’ in favour of ‘forecasting’. Earthquake prediction was regarded as impossible and harmful. The stigmatisation of the subject is discussed in the light of research on boundary work and stigma in science. The evaluation reveals how mitigation becomes the more favoured endeavour, creating a normative environment that disadvantages those who continue to pursue earthquake prediction research. Recommendations are made for communication with the public on earthquake risk, with a focus on how scientists portray uncertainty.     

The 1970 Bhola cyclone,nationalist politics,and the subsistence crisis contract in Bangladesh

The devastating Bhola cyclone in November 1970 is credited with having triggered the political events that led to the division of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. A callous response to the disaster by the Pakistani regime resulted in a landslide electoral victory for Bengali nationalists, followed by a bitter and bloody civil war. Yet, despite its political momentousness, the Bhola cyclone has been the subject of little political analysis. This paper examines the events, arguing that its extraordinary political significance put disaster management on the nationalist agenda; the famine of 1974 confirmed its centrality, producing a social contract to protect the population against disasters and subsistence crises on which the country's acclaimed resilience to the effects of climate change rests. The Bhola cyclone also drew international attention to this neglected, little‐known region, and in general can be seen as foundational for the subsequent developmental achievements of Bangladesh.     

Evaluating the social and ecological effectiveness of partially protected marine areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a primary tool for the stewardship, conservation, and restoration of marine ecosystems, yet 69% of global MPAs are only partially protected (i.e., are open to some form of fishing). Although fully protected areas have well-documented outcomes, including increased fish diversity and biomass, the effectiveness of partially protected areas is contested. Partially protected areas may provide benefits in some contexts and may be warranted for social reasons, yet social outcomes often depend on MPAs achieving their ecological goals to distinguish them from open areas and justify the cost of protection. We assessed the social perceptions and ecological effectiveness of 18 partially protected areas and 19 fully protected areas compared with 19 open areas along 7000 km of coast of southern Australia. We used mixed methods, gathering data via semistructured interviews, site surveys, and Reef Life (underwater visual census) surveys. We analyzed qualitative data in accordance with grounded theory and quantitative data with multivariate and univariate linear mixed-effects models. We found no social or ecological benefits for partially protected areas relative to open areas in our study. Partially protected areas had no more fish, invertebrates, or algae than open areas; were poorly understood by coastal users; were not more attractive than open areas; and were not perceived to have better marine life than open areas. These findings provide an important counterpoint to some large-scale meta-analyses that conclude partially protected areas can be ecologically effective but that draw this conclusion based on narrower measures. We argue that partially protected areas act as red herrings in marine conservation because they create an illusion of protection and consume scarce conservation resources yet provide little or no social or ecological gain over open areas. Fully protected areas, by contrast, have more fish species and biomass and are well understood, supported, and valued by the public. They are perceived to have better marine life and be improving over time in keeping with actual ecological results. Conservation outcomes can be improved by upgrading partially protected areas to higher levels of protection including conversion to fully protected areas.     

Digital data sources and methods for conservation culturomics

Ongoing loss of biological diversity is primarily the result of unsustainable human behavior. Thus, the long-term success of biodiversity conservation depends on a thorough understanding of human–nature interactions. Such interactions are ubiquitous but vary greatly in time and space and are difficult to monitor efficiently at large spatial scales. However, the Information Age also provides new opportunities to better understand human–nature interactions because many aspects of daily life are recorded in a variety of digital formats. The emerging field of conservation culturomics aims to take advantage of digital data sources and methods to study human–nature interactions and thus to provide new tools for studying conservation at relevant temporal and spatial scales. Nevertheless, technical challenges associated with the identification, access, and analysis of relevant data hamper the wider adoption of culturomics methods. To help overcome these barriers, we propose a conservation culturomics research framework that addresses data acquisition, analysis, and inherent biases. The main sources of culturomic data include web pages, social media, and other digital platforms from which metrics of content and engagement can be obtained. Obtaining raw data from these platforms is usually desirable but requires careful consideration of how to access, store, and prepare the data for analysis. Methods for data analysis include network approaches to explore connections between topics, time-series analysis for temporal data, and spatial modeling to highlight spatial patterns. Outstanding challenges associated with culturomics research include issues of interdisciplinarity, ethics, data biases, and validation. The practical guidance we offer will help conservation researchers and practitioners identify and obtain the necessary data and carry out appropriate analyses for their specific questions, thus facilitating the wider adoption of culturomics approaches for conservation applications.     

Motivations for the use and consumption of wildlife products

The dominant approach to combating the illegal wildlife trade has traditionally been to restrict the supply of wildlife products. Yet conservationists increasingly recognize the importance of implementing demand-side interventions that target the end consumers in the trade chain. Their aim is to curb the consumption of wildlife or shift consumption to more sustainable alternatives. However, there are still considerable knowledge gaps in understanding of the diversity of consumer motivations in the context of illegal wildlife trade, which includes hundreds of thousands of species, different uses, and diverse contexts. Based on consultation with multiple experts from a diversity of backgrounds, nationalities, and focal taxa, we developed a typology of common motivations held by wildlife consumers that can be used to inform conservation interventions. We identified 5 main motivational categories for wildlife use: experiential, social, functional, financial, and spiritual, each containing subcategories. This framework is intended to facilitate the segmentation of consumers based on psychographics and allow the tailoring of interventions—whether behavior change campaigns, enforcement efforts, or incentive programs—to the specific context in which they will be used. Underlining the importance of consumer research and collaborating with local actors is an important step toward promoting a more systematic approach to the design of demand reduction interventions.     

基于社会嵌入视角的农户减施化肥意愿影响因素分析

化肥是中国农业生产中最基础的物质投入要素,而化肥的过施滥施则是造成和加重农业面源污染的重要原因。农户作为化肥施用行为的主体,引导其科学施肥对农业可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于洞庭湖区农业面源污染综合治理试点项目区353份农户问卷调查数据,依托社会嵌入理论,运用二元Logistic模型分析农业面源污染治理中农户减施化肥意愿及其影响因素。结果表明:研究区域农户减施化肥意愿不强;农户减施化肥意愿不仅受到经济利益因素的驱动,还受到社会背景特征、农户自身特征等因素的影响;政府支持、农户认知及社会关系等社会嵌入因素对农户减施化肥意愿存在显著正向影响。基于此,政府应加强对科学施肥行为的支持力度,因地制宜构建科学施肥的社会嵌入环境,提高农户关于减施化肥方面的认知水平,充分发挥社会关系在科学施肥中的引导和示范作用。