Facing the Problem of Uncertainty

In a certain sense, uncertainty andignorance have been recognized in science andphilosophy from the time of the Greeks.However, the mathematical sciences have beendominated by the pursuit of certainty.Therefore, experiments under simplified andidealized conditions have been regarded as themost reliable source of knowledge. Normally,uncertainty could be ignored or controlled byapplying probability theory and statistics.Today, however, the situation is different.Uncertainty and ignorance have moved intofocus. In particular, the global character ofsome environmental problems has shown that theproblems cannot be disregarded. Therefore,scientists and technologists have in many wayscome into a new situation. The Chernobylaccident is a dramatic example, however,problems such as a possible greenhouse effect,a possible reduction of the ozone layer, and soon are all of the same type. These encompasstotally different problems than scientists andtechnologists are traditionally trained to dealwith. In these cases, the standard use ofstatistics has to change, the burden of proofshould be reversed, one should draw ondifferent kinds of expertise, and, in general,science should be ``democratized.'     

云南楚雄市水环境对策研究

河流水污染和水资源短缺是楚雄市面临的两大水环境问题。本文将楚雄市社会经济发展、水污染控制和水资源开发利用纳入一个系统,在掌握水环境问题现状和变化趋势及其成因的基础上,探讨河流水质目标和排污控制目标,从宏观协调对策和水污染控制措施两个层次上进行水环境对策的设计和多目标优选,并得到最佳水污染控制实施计划。     

3R strategies for the establishment of an international sound material-cycle society

Focusing on the promotion of the “3Rs” – reduce, reuse, and recycle – the authors summarize the policy that Japan has evolved in waste management and recycling policy over the years. To realize an international sound material-cycle society (SMS), the 3R approaches should first be implemented in each individual country. After each country has established an SMS to the best of its ability, contribution toward reducing the environmental load internationally, especially across all of East Asia, will be achieved by having waste and recyclable resources that cannot be handled in one country effectively used or processed in other countries. The current situation of international resource circulation is described and a concept of SMS at an international level is proposed. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily the official views of the organizations with which the authors are affiliated.     

柳州市社会、经济、资源、环境协调发展评价

运用主成分分析法评价了2000～2006年柳州市社会、经济与资源、环境各子系统的综合发展水平,并通过隶属度函数测算社会、经济、资源、环境各系统间的协调发展状况,找出柳州市可持续发展过程中存在的问题。结果表明：近年来柳州市的社会、经济、资源、环境各系统的综合发展水平不断提高、4个系统间的协调发展状况良好,但柳州市的经济结构还不够合理,经济增长方式仍然较粗放,资源利用率和环境保护工作有待进一步提高。最后提出了相应对策。     

中国西北地区水资源的开发和利用

我国西北地区地广人稀,水资源比较贫乏,而且时空分布极不均匀,极大地影响了该地区人民的生活,限制了该地区的经济开发,因此大力开发西北地区面临的首要问题即水资源问题。本文从西北地区水资源的自然分布、开发利用水资源中存在的问题及有效的解决途径三方面进行了简要的综述。     

The role of symbolic capital in stakeholder disputes: decision-making concerning intractable wastes

This paper examines almost 30 years of disputation concerning the disposal of the world's largest stockpile of the toxic organochlorine, hexachlorbenzene. It describes the study of a chemicals company in its attempt to manage the disposal of the toxic waste in a collaborative fashion with government, environmentalists and the local community. The study describes the new processes and structures specifically designed to address the decision-making and the issues of stakeholder perception and identity construction which have influenced the outcomes. Decision-making in such disputes is often theorized from the perspective of the emergence of highly individualized and reflexive risk communities and changing modes and expectations of corporate responsibility as a result of detraditionalization. We argue that the stakeholder interaction in this study reflects competing discourses in which corporate actors prioritize the building and maintaining of identity and symbolic capital rather than an active collaboration to solve the ongoing issue of the waste. As well, issues of access to expert knowledge highlight the relationship between conditions of uncertainty, technoscientific expertise and identity. The events of the study highlight the challenges faced by contemporary technoscientific corporations such as chemicals companies as they must deliver on requirements of transparency and openness, while maintaining technoscientific capacity and strong internal identity. We conclude that the study demonstrates the co-existence of social processes of individualization and detraditionalization with quasi-traditions which maintain authority, thus challenging the radical distinctions made in the literature between modernity and late or reflexive modernity.     

品牌经济与“两型”社会的建设——基于Hotelling模型的推导

改革开放三十年来以代工贸易为主的经济增长,在创造大量国民财富的同时,也来造成了严峻的资源短缺和生态破坏.因此,中国政府把建设"资源节约"和"环境友好"的"两型"社会,提升到国家未来发展战略的高度予以重视.而建设"两型"社会的关键,在于设立合理的制度安排,以实现企业行为与社会可持续发展的目标保持一致.就传统手段而言,这种制度安排主要依赖政府所设立的生态补偿机制.但是,这一机制在实践中存在诸多问题,大有完善的空间.本文基于Hotelling模型关于企业间博弈的相关主张,从企业理性行为的角度,寻求一条不同于政府被动监管行为的路径,来实现"两型"社会的建设蓝图.模型推导认为,品牌经济的发展模式可以有效激励企业采取长期导向、追求价值差异和关注公司声誉,进而实现资源节约及环境友好的社会福利改进.并且,由于这种机制兼顾了企业的盈利动机,因而更能够在实践当中行之有效,能指导各个地区实现经济发展模式的转型与升级.     

昆山市耕地变化和粮食安全研究

采用粮食自给率结合区域最小人均耕地面积对江苏省昆山市20多年来粮食安全状况进行研究,结果表明:昆山市在2000年从粮食产区转型为粮食销区;2006年的粮食自给率仅有23%;生产力提高和作物种植结构的相互制约导致了最小人均耕地面积呈波动变化。在粮食安全未来发展趋势的分析方面,提出了依据相关社会经济指标对昆山市发展阶段进行聚类分析,然后以最新发展阶段数据进行建模的新思路。分析结果表明:昆山的粮食安全相关的社会经济指标变化确实呈明显阶段性;至2011年,昆山市粮食自给率将下降至11%;最小人均耕地面积降低至0.028 hm2,如果该变化趋势得不到有效控制而持续较长时间,到2016年时,粮食自给率和最小人均耕地面积将分别下降至8%和0.012 hm2。依据这些分析及预测,文章提出了坚持土地集约利用、提升耕地生产力、建立和完善粮食流通网络和拓展并强化与粮食产区之间的合作等保障粮食安全、促进地区可持续发展的对策措施。     

基于EKC的全面小康中国与发达国家环境质量比较

以2020年全面建成小康社会目标为依据,比较了我国2020年与主要发达国家同等经济水平阶段在能源消耗、大气环境、水环境等方面的差距。研究发现:主要发达国家环境质量拐点出现在20世纪70年代末到80年代初,人均GDP在1.4万~1.5万美元左右。人均GDP在1.1万~1.2万美元阶段时,我国大气污染物排放强度低于发达国家,但大气环境质量差于发达国家;主要水污染排放量高于主要发达国家,但水环境质量基本可达到发达国家同期水平。建议要正确认识环境与经济之间的EKC曲线关系,制定具有中国特色的环境问题解决路线图,提出具有阶段性、差异化、适度超前的环境质量目标。     

声誉诉求对农户亲环境行为的影响研究——以家禽养殖户污染物处理方式选择为例

面临严峻的农村面源污染形势,政府现行的"自上而下"的治理模式无法实现有效监督。构建自主治理制度,激励农户践行亲环境行为,将成为未来解决农村环境问题的路径选择之一。如何有效规范农户污染处理行为,成为目前亟待解决的问题。文章基于声誉理论构建理论分析模型,从微观层面分析了在农村"熟人社会"场域下,农户声誉诉求对其亲环境行为的影响机制。以农户家禽养殖污染处理行为为例,利用全国8个省330户家禽养殖户的调查数据,通过4个指标测度了农户社会声誉诉求的强弱,并通过主成分分析和加权平均方法分别构建了农户声誉诉求的综合指数。在此基础上,应用Probit计量经济模型,实证检验了声誉诉求对养殖户污染物废弃行为存在抑制作用的假说,并比较了现行政府规制措施的实施效果。实证研究结果表明:1农户声誉诉求对其亲环境行为存在显著的促进作用;2政府引导对养殖户污染物废弃的抑制作用显著,而政府管制措施却未表现出显著影响。基于此,本文得出如下结论:第一,个人对声誉关注程度越高,违反社会准则的成本就越高,个人就有越强的动机遵守社会规范、自我约束污染物废弃行为。"熟人社会"的农村社区中存在较强的社会规制作用和社区成员参与公共环境自觉维护的激励机制。第二,在强制性环境管制难以有效实现的农村环境下,政府通过引导和宣传诱致农户自觉践行亲环境行为,构建环境自我监督机制,或可成为农村环境治理的有效途径。强化社区成员声誉效用和社会责任意识可成为乡村环境治理相关法律和公共管理制度建设的重要补充。